3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[MJO812]

Ukie is also east

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

From another board explaining why models may be trending slightly east.

 

 If you look west there are two things that may lend credence to the eastern soln. First is the pna ridge.  It’s axis of over Nevada would allow for that eastern more soln. Going to have to watch that. Second is the energy crashing the W coast near Canada CONUs. This progressive Atlantic and Pac pattern tells me it will likely continue to push the entire mean trough complex along. This problem, energy crashing the west coast, has been a theme all winter so no reason to believe it won’t be a factor this time. In this situation it may lend a helping rather than hurting hand it pushing the entire this further east as we get in right if the timing is right.

 

"slightly" aint going to cut it though

 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Inland track makes more sense with the +NAO

+NAO also cause way offshore tracks lol

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

"slightly" aint going to cut it though

 

For me it will and CMC was more than slightly east. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

+NAO also cause way offshore tracks lol

True

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While the east trend is nice, it's partly because the flow is very fast so the storm starts amplifying further NE than originally forecasted. Since the storm is riding a frontal boundary, this delay allows the boundary to slip a bit east a potentially give part of the area some snow.

The issue with that is that we're sacrificing a much more exciting storm for some wet snow that might not even accumulate in most areas. I'd personally rather get a 960 mb low over NH that gives us 60 mph gusts and severe weather than this. This strung out low (relative to what it showed) also means that the areas that will see all snow will likely get a lot less. I guess I'm a sucker for a dynamic bomb, regardless of how it impacts the weather for my backyard. 

It's still a very dynamic system with a surface low that deepens 25mb in 12 hours from 12z Saturday to 00z Sunday and it's still not done. I will also take snow any day over rain and severe weather, thank you. 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While the east trend is nice, it's partly because the flow is very fast so the storm starts amplifying further NE than originally forecasted. Since the storm is riding a frontal boundary, this delay allows the boundary to slip a bit east a potentially give part of the area some snow.

The issue with that is that we're sacrificing a much more exciting storm for some wet snow that might not even accumulate in most areas. I'd personally rather get a 960 mb low over NH that gives us 60 mph gusts and severe weather than this. This strung out low (relative to what it showed) also means that the areas that will see all snow will likely get a lot less. I guess I'm a sucker for a dynamic bomb, regardless of how it impacts the weather for my backyard. 

Seems models this winter have deamplified storms as we get closer and this one is no exception.  

[HVSnowLover]

39 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While the east trend is nice, it's partly because the flow is very fast so the storm starts amplifying further NE than originally forecasted. Since the storm is riding a frontal boundary, this delay allows the boundary to slip a bit east a potentially give part of the area some snow.

The issue with that is that we're sacrificing a much more exciting storm for some wet snow that might not even accumulate in most areas. I'd personally rather get a 960 mb low over NH that gives us 60 mph gusts and severe weather than this. This strung out low (relative to what it showed) also means that the areas that will see all snow will likely get a lot less. I guess I'm a sucker for a dynamic bomb, regardless of how it impacts the weather for my backyard. 

I disagree, we'll have plenty of strong rain and wind events in the spring/summer and fall. We won't get another chance for snow most likely until next winter so would rather have the snow in this case.

[HVSnowLover]

We've fairly rarely had a track that the 12Z CMC is depicting in recent winters. My guess is it corrects back west and is an inland runner or trends even further east to the BM. But thats honestly just a guess based on recent storms. 

[HVSnowLover]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

"slightly" aint going to cut it though

 

Depends for where in the subforum. For the interior parts the 12Z NAM and CMC are already a solid hit.  

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

I believe the NAM showed this with our sleet storm a few weeks back and gave everyone false hope. Not buying anything until it’s over. 

Actually the NAM along with the RGEM/CMC that best nailed that storm in terms of it being sleet and snow anywhere near the metro area.  

[MJO812]

Euro is colder 

[Franklin0529]

That kicker coming on the west coast may keep this east enough for snow.  Pna spike also 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Not as much QPF this run. It's done this before though. 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

That kicker coming on the west coast may keep this east enough for snow.  Pna spike also 

The PNA spike can work wonders

[snowman19]

Gulf origin storm, amps, no NAO/AO blocking, no 50/50, thunderstorms blowing up in the SE, this is going to correct northwest. The models are underestimating the SE ridge right now 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Gulf origin storm, amps, no NAO/AO blocking, no 50/50, thunderstorms blowing up in the SE, this is going to correct northwest. The models are underestimating the SE ridge right now 

You say this with every storm. Take a seat.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Gulf origin storm, amps, no NAO/AO blocking, no 50/50, thunderstorms blowing up in the SE, this is going to correct northwest. The models are underestimating the SE ridge right now 

Clearly you didn't read Bluewaves post

[jm1220]

Maybe we can get one of those convective lows to develop and tug it east like our 1/30 storm and early Jan storm. Only seems to happen to screw us over though.  

In all seriousness this is still likely an inland only snow event but the progressive pattern has pulled these east/suppressed before. If I was in Central NY/PA I’d start to sweat. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Clearly you didn't read Bluewaves post

Yesterday's storm also has something to do with these weak east trends. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Maybe we can get one of those convective lows to develop and tug it east like our 1/30 storm and early Jan storm. Only seems to happen to screw us over though.  

In all seriousness this is still likely an inland only snow event but the progressive pattern has pulled these east/suppressed before. If I was in Central NY/PA I’d start to sweat. 

My hopes aren't very high but to discount any accumulation would be silly. Either way it should be a very wintry 24 hours with some impressive cold Saturday night. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You say this with every storm. Take a seat.

You turn every L on the map from October until April into an NYC snowstorm, take a seat. And enjoy tomorrow’s NW trend ;-)

[mob1]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Gulf origin storm, amps, no NAO/AO blocking, no 50/50, thunderstorms blowing up in the SE, this is going to correct northwest. The models are underestimating the SE ridge right now 

You said this yesterday when models were well NW of where they are now, the odds of this ending up NW of where the NAM was yesterday are rather low. Although it can definitely trend NW of where it is now. 

 

[mob1]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe we can get one of those convective lows to develop and tug it east like our 1/30 storm and early Jan storm. Only seems to happen to screw us over though.  

In all seriousness this is still likely an inland only snow event but the progressive pattern has pulled these east/suppressed before. If I was in Central NY/PA I’d start to sweat. 

I almost cancelled my ski trip because it looked like it was going to rain in VT, but now I need the storm to trend back west and a little more amplified ☺.

[forkyfork]

with an east trend comes a loss of dynamics so the overall snow output from this storm will drop if this continues 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

with an east trend comes a loss of dynamics so the overall snow output from this storm will drop if this continues 

Very true. There's only so much upside to this. I'd rather have a more dynamic system vs strung out one in mid March. 

[HVSnowLover]

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

You said this yesterday when models were well NW of where they are now, the odds of this ending up NW of where the NAM was yesterday are rather low. Although it can definitely trend NW of where it is now. 

 

I said yesterday for things to be interesting we'd need a way east trend to account for the typical last minute NW trend. We have now gotten the way east trend. There is now a little wiggle room for interior parts of the subforum. For NYC and southeast it's still basically going to take a miracle to see more than an inch or two.   

[HVSnowLover]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

with an east trend comes a loss of dynamics so the overall snow output from this storm will drop if this continues 

This won't be an I95 snowstorm because the airmass is too poor and the storm is too fast, even the Euro which basically has a track barely inside the BM is rain to snow for the coast and if it goes any further east it will be even weaker and more progressive and less precip. Either way I'd be thrilled with even rain changing to 1-3 inches compared to the way things were looking 24 hours ago.  

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I said yesterday for things to be interesting we'd need a way east trend to account for the typical last minute NW trend. We have now gotten the way east trend. There is now a little wiggle room for interior parts of the subforum. For NYC and southeast it's still basically going to take a miracle to see more than an inch or two.   

I’d rather have the windy rainstorm and inland finally gets their overdue snowstorm than the strung out crap storm being described. Way too many of those this winter. 

[HVSnowLover]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d rather have the windy rainstorm and inland finally gets their overdue snowstorm than the strung out crap storm being described. Way too many of those this winter. 

A low bombing from 996 to 972 in 12 hours isn't really strung out a crap, I think the Euro might be underdoing the qpf a bit and also it's unfortunate this storm is moving so fast. It goes from the Carolinas to east of Maine in 12 hours but it's certainly not weak.