3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Rgem says hold on. It has been a little warmer than CMC. 

 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Rgem says hold on. It has been a little warmer than CMC. 

 

Yea its hard to buy in to the colder solutions until the CMC/RGEM get on board.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yea its hard to buy in to the colder solutions until the CMC/RGEM get on board.

Yup. Cmc has been the best with last several storms. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Rgem says hold on. It has been a little warmer than CMC. 

 

It cooled off from previous runs 

[HeadInTheClouds]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It cooled off from previous runs 

It was cooler than 6z but still warmer than other models. It's a little wonky though with thermals. Later Saturday afternoon it has my area well below freezing at 850 and 700 yet my surface is at 33 with a NW wind and the low well east, and I'm getting sleet. Im not buying that right now. 

[bluewave]

BGM needs to do well with this in order to avoid a top 10 lowest snowfall season.

 

Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31	Missing Count
1	2016-05-31	32.0	0
2	2012-05-31	43.5	0
3	1989-05-31	47.8	0
4	1969-05-31	52.0	0
5	1995-05-31	52.8	0
6	2022-05-31	54.6	83
7	1992-05-31	56.0	0
8	1980-05-31	56.8	0
9	1981-05-31	59.3	0
10	1985-05-31	62.5	0

[HeadInTheClouds]

GFS

[HVSnowLover]

19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It was cooler than 6z but still warmer than other models. It's a little wonky though with thermals. Later Saturday afternoon it has my area well below freezing at 850 and 700 yet my surface is at 33 with a NW wind and the low well east, and I'm getting sleet. Im not buying that right now. 

At this point I'd still focus more on track than exact thermals. If the low goes east of LI i'd say your area has a good chance.  You want to be NW of the dry slot to have a chance at significant snow.  

 

[HVSnowLover]

The GFS has the low over Boston, the NAM has it east of Cape Cod. That will make a big difference for the NW Crew......

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

The GFS has the low over Boston, the NAM has it east of Cape Cod. That will make a difference......

Inland track makes more sense with the +NAO

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Inland track makes more sense with the +NAO

I keep seeing that and still believe it but why are the models trending east, are they this bad? 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Inland track makes more sense with the +NAO

Euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the front. We have seen snow with a positive NAO this winter.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the front. We have seen snow with a positive NAO this winter.

Apples and oranges-there is a  warm airmass in place here for this event.    Other storms with a +NAO had cold in place....This is likely 90% rain for the coast with maybe an hour of snow/white rain at the end....

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Apples and oranges-there is a very warm airmass in place here for this event.    Other storms with a +NAO had cold in place....This is likely 90% rain for the coast with maybe an hour of snow/white rain at the end....

Yep airmass matters. This looks like it may be a better track than the 1/16 event but that one started with an artic airmass and this one starts warm... 

[HeadInTheClouds]

From another board explaining why models may be trending slightly east.

 

 If you look west there are two things that may lend credence to the eastern soln. First is the pna ridge.  It’s axis of over Nevada would allow for that eastern more soln. Going to have to watch that. Second is the energy crashing the W coast near Canada CONUs. This progressive Atlantic and Pac pattern tells me it will likely continue to push the entire mean trough complex along. This problem, energy crashing the west coast, has been a theme all winter so no reason to believe it won’t be a factor this time. In this situation it may lend a helping rather than hurting hand it pushing the entire this further east as we get in right if the timing is right.

 

[HVSnowLover]

CMC way east

[North and West]

Is there a timing here for the onset? Especially the wind? We’re supposed to fly out of EWR at 6:30 Saturday morning.


.

[HVSnowLover]

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

CMC way east

Gefs is also further east

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

CMC way east

0z had the low west of NYC

[HVSnowLover]

[milleand]

21 minutes ago, North and West said:

Is there a timing here for the onset? Especially the wind? We’re supposed to fly out of EWR at 6:30 Saturday morning.


.

yeah I am also flying out of NWK at 630am, but I think the wind will start picking up more towards 10am-11am in that area

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

N and W gets Nam'd. Still snowing at 60 hours on 3k. 

 

I believe the NAM showed this with our sleet storm a few weeks back and gave everyone false hope. Not buying anything until it’s over. 

[mob1]

LOL

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I believe the NAM showed this with our sleet storm a few weeks back and gave everyone false hope. Not buying anything until it’s over. 

And you shouldn't because it's 48 hours out with multiple solutions. There has been an east trend though and the CMC coming east is huge. 

[SnoSki14]

There is some credence to the east solutions given kicker and fast flow.

The more amplified storm yesterday would also help shift the track of the next system further east. 

This is also a scenario where places like DC & Philly may do better given they're further west 

We'll see what the Euro says

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

BGM needs to do well with this in order to avoid a top 10 lowest snowfall season.

 

Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31	Missing Count
1	2016-05-31	32.0	0
2	2012-05-31	43.5	0
3	1989-05-31	47.8	0
4	1969-05-31	52.0	0
5	1995-05-31	52.8	0
6	2022-05-31	54.6	83
7	1992-05-31	56.0	0
8	1980-05-31	56.8	0
9	1981-05-31	59.3	0
10	1985-05-31	62.5	0

Regardless of ptype (which in a scientific sense doesn't matter anyway since it all has to do with storm placement)....isn't March 12th one of our top days of the year for HECS?

1888, 1993 and now this year?  Are there some other years that also make this list....maybe 1914?  They all have something in common, they start out with warm temperatures and end up with frigid weather by the end of the storm.

Again ptype doesn't matter when it comes to historic....it's all about how strong the storm is.

[mob1]

While the east trend is nice, it's partly because the flow is very fast so the storm starts amplifying further NE than originally forecasted. Since the storm is riding a frontal boundary, this delay allows the boundary to slip a bit east a potentially give part of the area some snow.

The issue with that is that we're sacrificing a much more exciting storm for some wet snow that might not even accumulate in most areas. I'd personally rather get a 960 mb low over NH that gives us 60 mph gusts and severe weather than this. This strung out low (relative to what it showed) also means that the areas that will see all snow will likely get a lot less. I guess I'm a sucker for a dynamic bomb, regardless of how it impacts the weather for my backyard. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

While the east trend is nice, it's partly because the flow is very fast so the storm starts amplifying further NE than originally forecasted. Since the storm is riding a frontal boundary, this delay allows the boundary to slip a bit east a potentially give part of the area some snow.

The issue with that is that we're sacrificing a much more exciting storm for some wet snow that might not even accumulate in most areas. I'd personally rather get a 960 mb low over NH that gives us 60 mph gusts and severe weather than this. This strung out low (relative to what it showed) also means that the areas that will see all snow will likely get a lot less. I guess I'm a sucker for a dynamic bomb, regardless of how it impacts the weather for my backyard. 

Right ptype doesn't matter when it comes to historic, that all comes down to random storm placement....historic comes from how strong a storm is.

 

[SnowGoose69]

Don't see how significant snow or really even low end meaningful snow happens at the coast in this one unless you get the track notably more east.  You have too much of a NW component to the flow which will cause downsloping.