3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[Dark Star]

Holy Shinto, that's it!!???  Rain changed over to snow at 9:20 AM  and I was psyched for once, here comes an over performer.  

[HVSnowLover]

Now finally changing to mainly snow but meaingful precip should be gone within a few hours. 

[winterwx21]

It looked promising for awhile with the early changeover and snow coming down heavily. But SnowGoose69 was right about the precip drying up quickly after the changeover due to the northwest flow. At least I got 1 inch here. Can't complain about accumulating snow in March. Looks nice out there.

[Dark Star]

23 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? I have seen two 6+ snow events.

I'm 5 inches below normal right now in Brooklyn.

Not here.  One 6" event.  I guess at least we had potential to watch...

 

[keno19]

Long island still no frozen precip.  All models did not time this correctly.  Event almost over

[Snowlover11]

right on cue, temp dropped like a rock but no precip.  story of 21-22’

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It looked promising for awhile with the early changeover and snow coming down heavily. But SnowGoose69 was right about the precip drying up quickly after the changeover due to the northwest flow. At least I got 1 inch here. Can't complain about accumulating snow in March. Looks nice out there.

I think its less about drying up and more about the low being too close to the coast and the best dynamics over the HV  which isn't surprising. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, keno19 said:

Long island still no frozen precip.  All models did not time this correctly.  Event almost over

Many models had LI getting nothing to an inch. 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

right on cue, temp dropped like a rock but no precip.  story of 21-22’

It's snowing decently right now in this part of Yonkers idk how long it will last. 

[psv88]

Cannot believe the storm is over by noon. Wow. Just some sleet here in Suffolk 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 3.1"   snow easing.  25.5F  plowed street now slushy. max gust so far 32 MPH.  Mount Holly and JFK have gusted to 46 MPH recently. Power outages PA-FL...max gusts so far in the 55kt range e NC to N FL

 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Many models had LI getting nothing to an inch. 

As usual the RGEM did a good job. It showed much less at the coast and also the period of heavy snow west of the city after the changeover being very brief.

[psv88]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

As usual the RGEM did a good job. It showed much less at the coast and also the period of heavy snow west of the city after the changeover being very brief.

Rgem has been terrible most of the winter 

[HVSnowLover]

The storm is not over but the City/LI are now under a dry slot. I agree any heavy precip is over though. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Heavier precipitation in these rain to snow events always cuts off faster than the global models indicate when the upper low doesn’t close off like today. 

where does all that snow in PA go?

It looked like the shield was moving west to east.

Coastals dont typically dry up this quickly

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

As usual the RGEM did a good job. It showed much less at the coast and also the period of heavy snow west of the city after the changeover being very brief.

It did poorly N and W. Too late with changeover and not accurate on snow totals. It had me getting 3.5. I have 4-5 already and still a few hours to go. 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? I have seen two 6+ snow events.

I'm 5 inches below normal right now in Brooklyn.

No one west of Brooklyn got what we got (one 6"+ event and one 12"+ event).

 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Cannot believe the storm is over by noon. Wow. Just some sleet here in Suffolk 

These precip vs cold air race events almost never work out for the coast. We need the upper level lows to be better defined so the precip can be thrown back into the cold air. Otherwise as Snowgoose called to a T, we just dry out on the NW wind. Rain’s about done and the sky is brightening up already. 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

where does all that snow in PA go?

It looked like the shield was moving west to east.

Coastals dont typically dry up this quickly

But behind fronts do...

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, keno19 said:

Long island still no frozen precip.  All models did not time this correctly.  Event almost over

it's still sleeting here hard and pounding my windows.

but the sky has gotten brighter and there was never a complete changeover to snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

But behind fronts do...

Yes unfortunately, having a front come through is a sign that the storm was too far to the west.

It's actually a sleet snow mix here, but obviously no sticking is occurring and the sky is brightening.

 

[winterwx21]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Rgem has been terrible most of the winter 

LOL. Everyone here has talked about how great RGEM has been this winter. It has blown away the NAM. Not sure what you've been looking at if you think RGEM has been bad. The GGEM has also been excellent. Everyone has been talking about how good the Canadian models have been this winter.

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow had lightened up in last half hour or so. Now picking up again. Flakes are much bigger now. 24.3°

[weathermedic]

Temp down to 32. Precip stopped for now. Wind gust to 34 mph at my station.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

LOL. Everyone here has talked about how great RGEM has been this winter. It has blown away the NAM. Not sure what you've been looking at if you think RGEM has been bad. The GGEM has also been excellent. Everyone has been talking about how good the Canadian models have been this winter.

Its been terrible out here. Especially for the blizzard. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This really doesn’t become a coastal until it’s east of New England. 

so does all of that snow in PA just dry up before it gets here?  I guess we have the mountains and downslope to blame for all of this then- hard to believe just 2,000 ft mountains could cause all that precip to dry up.

 

 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Its been terrible out here. Especially for the blizzard. 

For the blizzard there were some crazy NAM runs that gave over 3 feet of snow for Long Island. Way overdone. I remember the RGEM was showing closer to 20 inches out on Long Island which ended up being more accurate than what NAM showed.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

For the blizzard there were some crazy NAM runs that gave over 3 feet of snow for Long Island. Way overdone. I remember the RGEM was showing closer to 20 inches out on Long Island which ended up being more accurate than what NAM showed.

NAM output is best cut by half or even two thirds.

 

[MANDA]

12:45 and have been in the parting snow band for about 30 min with moderate to heavy snow and NEAR blizzard conditions.  Current temp 25.5 with vis about 1/4 mi, sometimes a little lower when wind gusts.  

 

As of noon 2.5".  Tough to measure with the wind.  Will measure once this band exits but believe up to near or a tad over 3" now.

 

[LibertyBell]

lol it's all snow here now, but the "all snow" consists of about 10 snow flakes falling every minute.

I can type faster than the amount of snowflakes hitting the ground every minute and I type with 2 fingers.