3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[White Gorilla]

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

100%, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low, +AO, shortwave amps, it’s pretty much guaranteed to come northwest. Also, once you get the big thunderstorm blowups in the SE, the latent heat release aloft is going to really pump the SE ridge big time…..

Snowhole19 jumps on a no snow forecast with great enthusiasm?  Shocking!! 

[SnoSki14]

Well the good news is we don't have to deal with the snow question after Saturday for at least 8 months, which means Snowman will shut up finally.

I suppose there's always a chance of a late March or April fluke but the weeklies don't support anything of that nature. 

[HVSnowLover]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same here

I hope this shifts more east

I said this with the SWFE ice event a few weeks ago, these storms trend west under 48 hours so we need a significant east shift in the next 24 hours to think this could be anything.  Right now I'm not seeing anything that would indicate this is a threat near NYC. 

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

100%, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low, +AO, shortwave amps, it’s pretty much guaranteed to come northwest. Also, once you get the big thunderstorm blowups in the SE, the latent heat release aloft is going to really pump the SE ridge big time…..

So with all that being said WHY can’t the models pick up on these details? They seem rather relevant to modeling/forecasting.  I’m not disagreeing- I’m just ignorant of how these models work. 

[North and West]

I’m flying out of EWR to MIA at 6:30 Saturday Morning. Can I seal out before this comes in?


.

[HVSnowLover]

54 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

So with all that being said WHY can’t the models pick up on these details? They seem rather relevant to modeling/forecasting.  I’m not disagreeing- I’m just ignorant of how these models work. 

I wonder that too actually in this day in age why we know all the trends that models can't sniff out ahead of time. 

[Tatamy]

18z GEFS increases the chance of 4” or more for the Saturday storm in NW NJ from 15% to 65%.  It’s interesting how the ensemble mean moved east while the OP moved back to the NW with this run.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well the good news is we don't have to deal with the snow question after Saturday for at least 8 months, which means Snowman will shut up finally.

I suppose there's always a chance of a late March or April fluke but the weeklies don't support anything of that nature. 

It’s time to start thinking about sunshine and spring and long days and daylight savings time and flowers and warm weather and ice cream and pools and swimming, lightning bugs, crickets, peepers, BBQs, chillen outside with friends…you know…all the normal stuff most sane people look forward to at this time of year…..9 months from now or so, we can talk about the arctic tundra that MJO812 thinks exists in the NYC metro area lol

[rclab]

45 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

You know what....i can dig this. Im ready for the warm wx myself after multiple days in the 70s the last month but you forgot one thing....

Sundresses

…. And Will’s calendar.  As always …..

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

You know what....i can dig this. Im ready for the warm wx myself after multiple days in the 70s the last month but you forgot one thing....

Sundresses

I highly doubt it'll be as pleasant and picturesque as he thinks. I see a lot of dangerous weather this spring & summer. 

Also late March & April/May will likely have some crappy stretches with easterly flow guaranteed to cause misery. 

[ILoveWinter]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I highly doubt it'll be as pleasant and picturesque as he thinks. I see a lot of dangerous weather this spring & summer. 

Also late March & April/May will likely have some crappy stretches with easterly flow guaranteed to cause misery. 

Yea those back doors can be a rude awakening after a few nice days in a row. The worst is when the front stalls out 50 miles south so that Philly and DC are basking while we shiver!

[HeadInTheClouds]

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s time to start thinking about sunshine and spring and long days and daylight savings time and flowers and warm weather and ice cream and pools and swimming, lightning bugs, crickets, peepers, BBQs, chillen outside with friends…you know…all the normal stuff most sane people look forward to at this time of year…..9 months from now or so, we can talk about the arctic tundra that MJO812 thinks exists in the NYC metro area lol

Move. to. Florida.

 

[wishcast_hater]

My forecast went from 8”+ to rain overnight on TWC app. 

[MJO812]

Nice east trend on the euro

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

My forecast went from 8”+ to rain overnight on TWC app. 

Im not sure why you ever had 8+. That's not likely to happen but the system is trending a little east on latest guidance so I do think we see a little snow Saturday afternoon as low moves NE and colder air filters in. My forecast high went from 40 to 36. Euro is the most aggressive with the cold air and gives us 6 but not sure about that. Most models give us 1-3. Lets see what 12z's do. 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice east trend on the euro

And the op Euro would be all on its own…sell

[HeadInTheClouds]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice east trend on the euro

This was 00z Euro last night. I think it's a little aggressive but would love for it to be right. Can you post 6z?

 

[mob1]

I'm going to Killington on Saturday (through Tuesday) so these subtle shifts east are encouraging as it gives them a tiny bit of wiggle room to trend back NW and still be mostly snow. Worst case scenario, they'll get some upslope snow as the storm departs. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

This was 00z Euro last night. I think it's a little aggressive but would love for it to be right. Can you post 6z?

 

 

[MJO812]

3k Nam is more east than the 12k Nam

[HeadInTheClouds]

29 minutes ago, mob1 said:

I'm going to Killington on Saturday (through Tuesday) so these subtle shifts east are encouraging as it gives them a tiny bit of wiggle room to trend back NW and still be mostly snow. Worst case scenario, they'll get some upslope snow as the storm departs. 

I think they are going to do well. Traveling on Saturday could be a problem though. 

[MJO812]

I wonder if yesterday's system being more amped is going to impact this weekend's system.

[MJO812]

HRRR

[SnoSki14]

This could be a rare flash freeze system. Temperatures really plunge quickly. 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This could be a rare flash freeze system. Temperatures really plunge quickly. 

Nam just went east

[HeadInTheClouds]

N and W gets Nam'd. Still snowing at 60 hours on 3k. 

 

[Tatamy]

As modeled the 12z NAM suite would result in near blizzard conditions for places along and to the N and W of I287 in NW NJ and SE NY.  The transition from rain to wind blown heavy snow would take place Saturday morning in those areas.

[HeadInTheClouds]

12k 

 

[Tatamy]