3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ (this part): mixed with sleet at 740A, all snow 830A.  930A 1/4" sleet snow.  9A was 3/4s- small flake but now 1/2S but small flake. Believe flake size will increase later this morning as we in Wantage head for 6-8" by the 4P finish.  Another 1/2-1" tonight from snow shower bands off the lakes and beneath very cold short wave passage aloft with steep moist lapse rates early on. Dropped 1 degree past 10 minutes to 30.4F at 911A.

 

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, sn0w said:

Just flipped as I drove into town. Sleety/snow mix right now, car shows 37

Yup the flip just happened. Went from rain to driving sleet to wind driven big flakes in the space of 5 minutes. Temp is still well above freezing but ought to get down there pretty quickly now.

[ForestHillWx]

Borderline moderate/heavy snow. Coating on all surfaces. 

[Franklin0529]

Heavy rain an 30-40mph winds coastal Monmouth county 

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Change line coming in hot, snow/sleet now east of 287 along 78 in Somerset Cnty

There’s rain and snow mixed where 78 and 287 meet however you need to go west of there to find accumulating snow.

[White Gorilla]

Mesoscale Discussion 0249

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Pennsylvania...northern New
Jersey...eastern New York State...western New England

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 121353Z - 121800Z

SUMMARY...A corridor of heavy snow will develop north-northeastward
across the region through 11 AM-1 PM EST, including occasional
hourly rates up to 1-2 inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...As consolidating, amplified mid-level troughing
gradually pivots eastward across the lower Great Lakes and upper
Ohio Valley vicinity, the corridor of strongest lower/mid
tropospheric frontogenetic forcing is forecast to continue to
develop north-northeastward, inland of northern Mid Atlantic coastal
through western New England by 16-18Z.  This appears likely to
include a period of lift becoming maximized within the 700-500 mb
layer, where saturating profiles within the dendritic growth layer
will become conducive to heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches
per hour.  Although lower levels are still above freezing across
parts of western New England, temperatures will cool in response to
low-level cold advection, as deepening elongated surface low
pressure migrates across the northern Mid Atlantic through southern
New England coastal areas.

[hudsonvalley21]

Ice pellets with snow mixing in 35 degrees 

[Tatamy]

I am seeing that here now with heavy snow 30*

[Northof78]

Mostly sleet now in W Essex, seems changeover is ahead of schedule by an hour or so

[wxman]

All snow now, 33.  ground whitening up.

[sn0w]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yup the flip just happened. Went from rain to driving sleet to wind driven big flakes in the space of 5 minutes. Temp is still well above freezing but ought to get down there pretty quickly now.

Left my house, it was 39 and rain. Just pulled back in no more than 20 minutes later, 34 and moderate snow

[Rtd208]

Five degree temp drop in the last 40 mins here.

Current temp 40

[gravitylover]

Moderate wind driven and sticking to everything despite being wet already and down to 34 now. 

[Northof78]

Now light snow/sleet mix

[jetrz]

Snow/sleet mix with gusty winds in Newark.

[ebwx]

Big flakes mixing in- East Brunswick

 

[ForestHillWx]

Temp down to 31. Accumulating on all surfaces. Point and click bumped from 1-3 to 5-8. Crazy. 

[LoboLeader1]

41 here with light rain falling. Judging from radar, looks like the rain/snow line is an hour out.

[MANDA]

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Big difference in conditions from where you are at elevation as compared to those on I80 to your south.

Yes, my neighborhood rises sharply to north of Rt. 80 and that elevation helps in events like this.

Was the same earlier this past week.

[sussexcountyobs]

Mod. snow falling. Fine flakes. 30.4°

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, ebwx said:

Big flakes mixing in- East Brunswick

 

Same in Metuchen. Earlier then expected 

[HVSnowLover]

The coast may have more problems due to the track, clearly no issue with cold air moving in with this one as we see how fast the interior is cooling.   

[Northof78]

very quick transition to light/mod snow now, windy, no accumulation yet

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The coast may have more problems due to the track, clearly no issue with cold air moving in with this one as we see how fast the interior is cooling.   

The Nam was to close to the coast. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The coast may have more problems due to the track, clearly no issue with cold air moving in with this one as we see how fast the interior is cooling.   

Seems like a bust from the Euro

Horrible model

[MANDA]

9:30 -  Vis 1/4 mi S/BS small fine flakes but lots of them

29.3 degrees.

Everything including pavement and concrete accumulating.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Seems like a bust from the Euro

Horrible model

Euro did well overall though leading the way with the offshore track instead of inland runner most other models were showing. It was too likely cold in the short range. 

[terrapin8100]

Sleet now mixing in with the rain. 38°

[Rtd208]

Snow mixing in here now.

[Tatamy]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Euro did well overall though leading the way with the offshore track instead of inland runner most other models were showing. It was too likely cold in the short range. 

Strongly agree that the Euro lead the way with the more easterly track during the week.