3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[2112wxgrl]

Changeover occurring in Wantage, NJ

[bluewave]

Heavy March thunderstorms lifting north from SNJ as the low is beginning to rapidly deepen. 
 

 

[HVSnowLover]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro fail

Storm not over yet but agree it's looking that way for the coast. 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Rain/snow line does look further SE than RGEM had it at this time. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

43 degrees in New City right now but the radar looks good and shows snow not all that far away,,,,,let's see what time we change over 

[sussexcountyobs]

After 1 hr of light rain, it has switched over to all sleet. 33.1

[gravitylover]

40° with heavy rain but it's dropping quickly and the blues are nearly here on the radar.

[snywx]

33 w/ snow falling

expecting 6-8” imby

[Tatamy]

Snow in NJ as Far East as Rte 206 along I80 and Pattenburg (exit12) along I78.

[RU848789]

Thought Mt. Holly's AFD was excellent.  Going to be a wild day for you folks.  Normally I'd be observing and posting non-stop, but it's time for a round of disc golf down here in Vero Beach (high near 80F today), then a trip to the casino to play poker with my dad. Will seriously miss not being there for this one. Enjoy, but stay safe!

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
613 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will affect the area today, bringing
rain then snow, before strong northwest flow develops later today
through Sunday. High pressure builds across the southeast states on
Sunday, then offshore Sunday night. A weak frontal boundary is
forecast to move across the area on Tuesday, before a coastal system
passes near or south of the region late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY...

Steady precipitation is overspreading the region this morning as
strengthening low pressure begins its trek up the East Coast.
Widespread low clouds and some fog are also in place thanks to
light southeasterly flow. Precipitation is falling as mainly
rain for now, though surface observations indicate the
approaching cold front has already moved into the Poconos and
will continue to progress southeast, with rapid temperature
drops and rain changing to snow occurring behind the front. The
quick moving low to our southwest will continue to strengthen as
it passes over or just east of the region today. Its
intensification will be supported by a vigorous mid- level
trough beginning to pivot to a more neutral orientation, as well
as extremely strong upper jet dynamics which will easily allow
the developing low to achieve bomb cyclone criteria by tonight.

Regarding the local forecast, the main change overnight, while not a
huge change, was a continuation of the trends from yesterday. The
track of the low continues to push a little further east, resulting
in a faster transition to snow for eastern Pennsylvania and northern
New Jersey. This has resulted in higher snow totals nudging a little
further southeast. With the eastward trend, QPF has decreased
somewhat, especially to the northwest. As a result, snow totals in
the Poconos did not increase, and the Lehigh Valley was also little
changed. However, they did increase a little more noticeably over
southeast PA and north-central NJ. The Winter Storm Warning was
extended a little further southeast in PA, and Winter Weather
Advisories were extended east of the Delaware River in southern New
Jersey, and to Kent County, MD. Considered Warnings for Morris and
Hunterdon NJ as well. Will hold off there for now but monitor trends
for possible upgrade later.

This will be an impactful event. Rain will steadily change to snow
from northwest to southeast from soon after daybreak through early
this afternoon. Snowfall rates around and locally above 1 inch per
hour are likely in the warned area, and could briefly occur in the
Advisory area also. This is supported by NBM and HREF 1 hr snow
probabilities and strong fgen forcing which will be present. As
winds increase (more on this below), blizzard-like conditions will
occur for a time late this morning and early this afternoon over
much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. Even along the
I-95 corridor, this could be a rather impactful event even though
snow totals will not be as high. A couple hours of snowfall rates of
0.5 to 1 inch per hour and gusty winds with blizzard-like conditions
are likely for that corridor, including Philadelphia. Furthermore,
this looks like a classic setup for a flash freeze, with
temperatures plummeting below freezing while precipitation is still
ongoing. Snowfall rates will taper off by mid afternoon, but light
snow will continue and wet surfaces will continue to freeze as
temperatures fall further, with flash freeze impacts extending
potentially all the way to the coast.

In terms of the wind, there may be a couple of main bursts. The
first will be this afternoon and early this evening with the initial
wind shift to northwest, subsequent pressure rises, and changing of
precipitation to snow. This looks like a good bet to bring 40 to 45
mph gusts, locally higher, to much of the region during the
afternoon and early evening. These winds could lead to areas of
blowing snow and contribute to continued reduced visibilities well
into the afternoon even as snowfall rates diminish.

[Rtd208]

Moderate to occassionally heavy rain falling here.

Current temp 45

[Santa Claus]

cool event

[sussexcountyobs]

Sleet snow mix. 32.4

 

[Northof78]

Heavy rain, winds stating to pick up from N/W

[Juliancolton]

Just flipped to snow in Fishkill. That was quick. 

[Snowlover11]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro fail

how the hell is it a fail? its just starting.

[dmillz25]

The changeover seems faster than expected no?

[Tatamy]

Moderate snow 32*

[sussexcountyobs]

All snow now. 32°

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The changeover seems faster than expected no?

Actually for the time being it does not appear that the changeover line is proceeding any further east (as seen on traffic cams).  It still runs from about Jugtown Mtn along I78 to the area where 206 connects with I80.

[Tatamy]

Heavy snow 1/4 mile visibility.

[sussexcountyobs]

Roads getting white. Mod snow. 31.1°

[MANDA]

8:00 a.m. - 37 degrees with light to moderate rain.

8:20 a.m. - 33 degrees with sleet and rain mixed.

8:30 a.m. - 32 degrees light to moderate snow

9:00 a.m. - 29 degrees with light to moderate snow.

Accumulating on everything but pavement and concrete but just starting to stick on those surfaces now.  Winds gusty!

[wxman]

Sleet changing to snow at 9:04, temp 34.

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

8:00 a.m. - 37 degrees with light to moderate rain.

8:20 a.m. - 33 degrees with sleet and rain mixed.

8:30 a.m. - 32 degrees light to moderate snow

9:00 a.m. - 29 degrees with light to moderate snow.

Accumulating on everything but pavement and concrete but just starting to stick on those surfaces now.  Winds gusty!

Big difference in conditions from where you are at elevation as compared to those on I80 to your south.

[psv88]

46 and rain. Expecting one inch 

[terrapin8100]

Heavy Rain in Ossining. 40° Temperature starting to tumble here. Down 3° in the last hour.

[sn0w]

33 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

40° with heavy rain but it's dropping quickly and the blues are nearly here on the radar.

Just flipped as I drove into town. Sleety/snow mix right now, car shows 37

[Northof78]

Change line coming in hot, snow/sleet now east of 287 along 78 in Somerset Cnty

[bluewave]

Very heavy downpours with gusty winds currently moving north along the Jersey Shore.

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
844 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Coastal and outer waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fenwick Island DE...

* Until 1045 AM EST.

* At 844 AM EST, strong showers and isolated thunderstorms were
  located along a line extending from near Seaside Heights to near
  Buoy Ge to near Buoy 2ms to Ocean City Pier, moving northeast at
  45 knots. Another area of thunderstorms were located offshore of
  Delaware and southern New Jersey moving north as well.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and
           suddenly higher waves.