3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[brooklynwx99]

very impressive to see such a consistent cold trend at 48 hours out from the EPS

[HVSnowLover]

Thats by 11 am!

[HVSnowLover]

[Brasiluvsnow]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If this verifies I will drive to Sloatsburg, while it is happening and do a live stream 

[brooklynwx99]

could be some blizzard conditions after the changeover with 1-2"+/hr rates and gusts around 30-40 mph

[Allsnow]

The euro is rip city! Please be correct 

[HVSnowLover]

NAM still thumps interior hard although backed down near the coast

  

[Brasiluvsnow]

anyone have a euro snow map ?

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

anyone have a euro snow map ?

 

[Brian5671]

0z NAM looks like the RGEM now-not a good sign for the coast

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Thats 3 models now showing 6+ for sloatsburg. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

0z NAM looks like the RGEM now-not a good sign for the coast

This isn’t a storm for LI or sne 

[White Gorilla]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Sadly, if this verified, 6.4 inches would be my biggest snowfall for the season.  I will still gladly take it. 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

0z NAM looks like the RGEM now-not a good sign for the coast

We'll see what happens. Keep expectations low and maybe you'll be surprised.

The biggest question mark is when does the changeover occur. If it happens quickly then you'll get more, if it's delayed you get less. 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll see what happens. Keep expectations low and maybe you'll be surprised.

The biggest question mark is when does the changeover occur. If it happens quickly then you'll get more, if it's delayed you get less. 

I’m expecting nothing frozen or practically nothing so it’s fine. If winter ended for me with the 2” on Wed that’s totally fine by me. That said, an hour or two for the cold air advance makes a huge difference. It’s cold air vs precip remaining race. 

[winterwx21]

NYC is a tough call since it's gonna be near the edge of the more significant snow. Euro and HRRR are saying NYC gets several inches, but the latest NAM and previous RGEM runs say only about an inch. The new RGEM comes out shortly, so we'll see if it increases amounts.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This isn’t a storm for LI or sne 

Yep I have no clue what people are looking for. NYC and the coast might get 1-3 but that's it.

[ILoveWinter]

I'm not expecting more than 2 here in Manhattan but i'll be happy as long as there is a period of heavy snow.

[HVSnowLover]

Final Call (definitely a tricky forecast but with so much uncertainty have to go with climo) 

 

Most of NYC/LI  <1 

North and West of the GWB 1-3

North and West of TPZ- 3-6

Near I84- 6-8  

[sussexcountyobs]

2 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Places to the N and W of I287 are now expecting up to 6-9” with the 18z run.

That's what my NWS is saying. 5-8. What are your thoughts for my area? At Canistear Reservoir in NE Sussex County NJ? Any chance of an upside, or will storm be moving to quick?

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

That's what my NWS is saying. 5-8. What are your thoughts for my area? At Canistear Reservoir in NE Sussex County NJ? Any chance of an upside, or will storm be moving to quick?

I would go with the NWS numbers.  The 0z models that I have seen so far are not really any higher than previous runs.

[EastonSN+]

[HVSnowLover]

The 0Z RGEM still doesn't flip the city until 18Z (1 pm) and NYC seems to barely go to all snow before precip lightens up.  

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The 0Z RGEM still doesn't flip the city until 18Z (1 pm) and NYC seems to barely go to all snow before precip lightens up.  

 

Rgem and Nam has not liked this event at all

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem and Nam has not liked this event at all

0z RGEM was a little better though. The 0z run gives my area (just slightly west of NYC) close to 3 inches. Better than the 1 inch that the 18z run had. A little more snow for NYC too ... looks like 1 to 2 inches compared to barely an inch on the 18z run. At least it's slightly better.

[Allsnow]

RGEM increased snow amounts. 2-4 for nyc west 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I like where I am for this one. Just south of the gwb a block from the Hudson. I have a feeling there is a hour or two period where it rips 1-2”/hr and that’s where we get 3”. This one is going to surprise allot people in this part of the city. March storms tend tI be very dynamic and banding more intense. At home on the island it’s a coating 

[donsutherland1]

HREF at 3/11 12z and 3/12 0z:

 

[WeatherFox]

This will be a nowcasting event. Tho, Don's post shows increased and expanded potential.

[SnowGoose69]

Models do not diverge til 14Z or later so really won't be able to get a sense where this is going til then.  The RGEM may be a nose too slow at 04z over PA progressing the cold air E but its not a huge amount.  I still think the faster progression of colder air will verify...there could be a period of PLSN or RAPL perhaps near the city and the HRRR does show that