3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[MJO812]

It all depends on how fast the cold air crashes 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes, he talked about it delaying cold air in these situations which makes sense because the snow amounts are definitely underdone especially N and W. 

The RGEM often times in scenarios where your CAA is coming on a NNW-N trajectory is way too slow bringing in the colder air...this event is atypical to many of the anafrontal snows we have seen in recent years where we got our cold air on a NW push...those always take forever and often models are too fast bringing them in.  The difference in a 320 push vs 350 is night and day.  The issue I still see though is 20-23Z I do not buy any meaningful snow in areas where downslope is a factor so basically most of the area except the NW...you'll see 17-19Z as the window for snow near the city and that is probably all with just flurries after...the 3km NAM idea post 19z I think due to the NW component is overdone

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It all depends on how fast the cold air crashes 

our locals have upper snowfall amounts to 1-3 inches....all the way to Nassau County.  Said that if the changeover happens around 10-11 we could get 3-4 inches but if it happens after 12 it will likely be less than an inch because snow will shut off around 4 PM

 

[Shades]

I wonder if WAA in advance of the system is also being subdued. Just casual observation, we have a mostly clear sky this evening area-wide, setting up for radiational cooling, even with the light southerly flow. This system is amplifying as it crosses the region, so it's not pumping the ridge till past our longitude. 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There have been comments made about the snow amounts being provided by the RGEM (RDPS).   One of the Mets on the board- SnowGoose - provided an explanation this morning on this thread regarding this.  It has to do with the Synoptics playing out with this storm and how the model handles it.  

I actually like it when mets make their own predictions rather than relying on computer models.  They went to 4 years of college for a reason.

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

No it didn't. It has less snow for some. 12z Vs 18z

 

 

 

meh 18z

 

[SnowGoose69]

This event is somewhat similar to 12-11-93 but the main difference which will prevent the bigger snows from being near the coast is that you had a more notable neutral to negative tilt to that system.  As a result you had a good 6-9 hour period of snows and your flow both at the surface and aloft was more NNE vs NW so there was no notable downslope impact.  

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

This event is somewhat similar to 12-11-93 but the main difference which will prevent the bigger snows from being near the coast is that you had a more notable neutral to negative tilt to that system.  As a result you had a good 6-9 hour period of snows and your flow both at the surface and aloft was more NNE vs NW so there was no notable downslope impact.  

how does this compare to the Christmas night storm in 2002?

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

how does this compare to the Christmas night storm in 2002?

 

That was a coastal low with a closed low at 500...that is the only way you can ever see backend snows here with a coastal low, otherwise the system exits too fast and or the cold air does not come in fast enough 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That was a coastal low with a closed low at 500...that is the only way you can ever see backend snows here with a coastal low, otherwise the system exits too fast and or the cold air does not come in fast enough 

that had a -NAO I think?

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, mob1 said:

Don't kill me, but I'm personally rooting for a NW trend for my ski trip. At the very least, it's nice to see the NAM has a more dynamic storm with a decent amount of moisture considering how fast it's moving. 

Good evening mob1.the worst that can happen to you is that you’ll get a like from S19. Happy and safe skiing. As always ….

[Shades]

For relativity, the NWS has Philly at freezing by 11am tomorrow; never rising above, and falling into the 20s by 1pm. That's how close the cold air is. This will be a race between thermal gradient and the moisture/lift exiting. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

that had a -NAO I think?

 

 

It was a very east based  -NAO if I remember right, the block was by Iceland 

[BxSnowWx37]

Down to 46 here after a high of 57..skies look gd for some cooling even before the real cold arrives. And tbh the cold is trying to charge in here,it's already snowing in buffalo.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Shades said:

For relativity, the NWS has Philly at freezing by 11am tomorrow; never rising above, and falling into the 20s by 1pm. That's how close the cold air is. This will be a race between thermal gradient and the moisture/lift exiting. 

well since we are north of Philly we should get to freezing well before them

 

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well since we are north of Philly we should get to freezing well before them

 

Are you up in your place in the Poconos this weekend?

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Are you up in your place in the Poconos this weekend?

No I was there last weekend doing some early spring clean up, I'll be there again next weekend and much more regularly starting in April.

 

[Roger Smith]

The storm is now modelled to reach 922 mbs south of Greenland by Monday. That's crazy low pressure, the North Atlantic non-tropical cyclone record is 916 mbs. The all-time lowest pressure in Canada is 940.2 mbs set on Jan 10, 1977 at St Anthony Newfoundland which is on the northern tip of the island near the Strait of Belle Isle.  (source: C. Burt, Weather Underground blog). This may give it a run as it continues to deepen heading offshore from Labrador on Sunday. I will keep an eye on hourlies from Labrador and see what happens. 

[HVSnowLover]

39 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Down to 46 here after a high of 57..skies look gd for some cooling even before the real cold arrives. And tbh the cold is trying to charge in here,it's already snowing in buffalo.

It will warm up on the initial SE wind before it cools back down.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

No it didn't. It has less snow for some. 12z Vs 18z

 

 

 

Unfortunately thats the model I trust most right now but I do think it might be a bit overdone with how long the warm air hangs on.  

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

Here is the map and here's is what I'm talking about lol

The dark blue line edge looks to "sharp" but what is that blue line?  Is as if the snow just hit a wall and that's the extent of the heavier amounts another over 1.2 inches

Could be a model glitch especially since it's the gfs lol but the gradient could also be that tight. 

[HVSnowLover]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well since we are north of Philly we should get to freezing well before them

 

Depends what you mean by we. If you are in the poconos than definitely, if you are in Long Island then Philly would hit freezing before NYC/LI in this setup.   

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The way the storm is approaching it’s really more of an east west rather north south thing. Eastern Connecticut Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island Pretty much gets shut out from snow. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The way the storm is approaching it’s really more of an east west rather north south thing. Eastern Connecticut Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island Pretty much gets shut out from snow. 

Yep and DC/Philly could get more snow than NYC in this type of setup

[MJO812]

Euro looks better than 12z for many areas

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks better than 12z for many areas

Places to the N and W of I287 are now expecting up to 6-9” with the 18z run.

[HVSnowLover]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks better than 12z for many areas

Do you have a map?

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm really confused how the two strongest Mesos this winter (RGEM and HRRR) are so far apart on this right now.  

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yep and DC/Philly could get more snow than NYC in this type of setup

sounds like Vets Day 1987, Jan 2000 and a few other storms I remember.