3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[HeadInTheClouds]

I think this is reasonable and close to what may happen. 

 

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

WWAs definitely need to be expanded way to the southeast. With arctic air pouring in, roads will become slippery. Much different from the last event where it was a struggle to accumulate even on colder surfaces. I think I'd go with a 1 to 3 inch forecast for my area, but we can hope models like Euro and HRRR are correct about getting a little more than that.

NYC will be lucky to see half of an inch total tomorrow, most likely a coating/dusting tomorrow afternoon

[MJO812]

It's funny how snowman only shows up during the winter.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I think this is reasonable and close to what may happen. 

 

Outlier right now but possible 

[Greg g]

What you guys thinking for rockland/ Bergen for late morning / early afternoon 

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's borderline crazy. Also we're talking about 1-3/2-4" that will be gone in a day or so.

Anyone that crazy about snowfall or in his case hoping it flops needs to check into a psyche ward. 

Could still be pretty high impact since no one is expecting it now and since there’s a high chance that what falls freezes up tomorrow night. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Outlier right now but possible 

Why an outlier? 

[matt8204]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Could still be pretty high impact since no one is expecting it now and since there’s a high chance that what falls freezes up tomorrow night. 

Don't need much precip to make things slippery either.  I saw a picture of a nasty multi-vehicle wreck on the Turnpike yesterday morning.  Apparently, one guy spun out and it caused a chain reaction.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO

[brooklynwx99]

looks like the colder trends are continuing! could be a nice burst of moderate to heavy snow in the metro around midday. 1-3” is a good call for now, mainly on colder surfaces 

[matt8204]

Show me on the doll where the snow hurt you.

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, Greg g said:

What you guys thinking for rockland/ Bergen for late morning / early afternoon 

1-3 inches

[rclab]

Good afternoon all. WWA just flashed for Brooklyn on the I Pad. ( no offense meant, S19 ) As always …

[weathermedic]

Wind Advisory issued for Long Island:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
304 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

NYZ078>081-177-179-120415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0006.220312T1600Z-220313T0500Z/
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
304 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Northwest Suffolk, Northeast Suffolk, Southwest
  Suffolk, Southeast Suffolk, Northern Nassau and Southern
  Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In addition to the wind, rain will change
  over to snow by Saturday afternoon before ending. At least a
  coating of snow is expected for most areas. As temperatures drop
  below freezing by late afternoon into the evening, refreezing
  is possible on some surfaces, creating the potential for
  hazardous travel.

[snywx]

Upton just upgraded Orange County to a winter storm warning.. 4-7” 

[weathermedic]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-120415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet surfaces.
  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high
  as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing some standing water
  resulting in difficult travel.

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, snywx said:

Upton just upgraded Orange County to a winter storm warning.. 4-7” 

NAM is easily a warning level event for you. Two days ago it didn't show any snow for anyone east BMG. 

[mob1]

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

1-3 is a good call

Colder trends continue

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like the colder trends are continuing! could be a nice burst of moderate to heavy snow in the metro around midday. 1-3” is a good call for now, mainly on colder surfaces 

Have to keep an eye on the changeover. If it flips quickly then we'll get a nice heavy snow burst with temps dropping into the 20s. 

Hopefully it's a positive bust for once

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 is a good call

Colder trends continue

Did that cut back from 12z?

[Rtd208]

Winter Weather Advisory issued here for 1-3" of snow expected tomorrow. A Wind Advisory has also been issued here for wind gusts up to 50 mph. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Sign me and our buddy in Sloatsburg up for this

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did that cut back from 12z?

It's the same

 

[Tatamy]

Mt. Holly upgrades Sussex and Warren and parts of eastern PA to a WSW.  The remainder of NJ that is N and W of I95 gets a WWA.  Wind advisories also issued.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Sign me and our buddy in Sloatsburg up for this

Yea, you’re not seeing that much snow…

[hudsonvalley21]

18z NAM up-ticked the snow amounts from the 12z runs.

 

[EastonSN+]

3k NAM got colder and a bit snowier.

Heh, if I can get the 3 3k NAM is showing March would have beaten February for snowfall this year IMBY.

March beating December is expected, however beating February has to be somewhat rare.

We shall see.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

18z NAM up-ticked the snow amounts from the 12z runs.

 

I believe it was Julian that said earlier today that he thought there would be a stripe of almost a foot from Warwick to Pittsfield. That pretty much is in line with what the 12 km name is showing now. And it’s not even the Kuchera. 

[mob1]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 is a good call

Colder trends continue

Don't kill me, but I'm personally rooting for a NW trend for my ski trip. At the very least, it's nice to see the NAM has a more dynamic storm with a decent amount of moisture considering how fast it's moving.