3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[sussexcountyobs]

Winter Storm Warning now in effect here from 6am till 7pm.

[North and West]

Aruba?!?!?

Miami.


.

[hudsonvalley21]

35 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I believe it was Julian that said earlier today that he thought there would be a stripe of almost a foot from Warwick to Pittsfield. That pretty much is in line with what the 12 km name is showing now. And it’s not even the Kuchera. 

I think this is the Kuchera, could be wrong tho.

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

RGEM refuses to give in to bigger totals

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, you’re not seeing that much snow…

I honestly don’t care If I do my wish is for YOU to see it because I know how much you will appreciate it 

[ILoveWinter]

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

RGEM refuses to give in to bigger totals

 

The RGEM just seems like a weaker/less snowier storm in general. Far less pink hues overall.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

RGEM refuses to give in to bigger totals

 

The RGEM will be the closet to reality IMO. Think of how many times rain to snow/anafront type scenarios actually workout here….especially during the day in mid-March, with all the obstacles that come along with that. I think we are also going to see downsloping issues with the NW flow drying things out after the arctic boundary passes 

[HeadInTheClouds]

GFS

 

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

RGEM colder snowier 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The RGEM will be the closet to reality IMO. Think of how many times rain to snow/anafront type scenarios actually workout here….especially during the day in mid-March, with all the obstacles that come along with that. I think we are also going to see downsloping issues with the NW flow drying things out after the arctic boundary passes 

I don't know. The RGEM has been good but I think it's underestimating snowfall in many areas. The Nam is probably too high though. I like what the HRDPS was showing. 

[LoboLeader1]

1 hour ago, weathermedic said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

CTZ009-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-176-178-120415-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0015.220312T1400Z-220313T0000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
307 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected, along with the refreezing of wet surfaces.
  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high
  as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could
  bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall quickly during the
  day Saturday resulting in a quick freezing some standing water
  resulting in difficult travel.

Winds gusting as high as 50 mph, no wind advisory?

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I don't know. The RGEM has been good but I think it's underestimating snowfall in many areas. The Nam is probably too high though. I like what the HRDPS was showing. 

It got colder and snowier from 12z. 

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I don't know. The RGEM has been good but I think it's underestimating snowfall in many areas. The Nam is probably too high though. I like what the HRDPS was showing. 

The snowman method: pick the least snowiest model and run with it. 

If Rgem had a crusher he would say it's a terrible model. In addition even it got colder/snowier.

[wthrmn654]

18 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

GFS

 

What's up with the laser straight line snow amounts on the east side of that?  Never seen snow amounts with such a sharp straight edge

[wthrmn654]

8 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Winds gusting as high as 50 mph, no wind advisory?

You can't issue a wind advisory and a winter weather advisory you do 1 or the other

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

You can't issue a wind advisory and a winter weather advisory you do 1 or the other

Some areas have both....

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

You can't issue a wind advisory and a winter weather advisory you do 1 or the other

Mt. Holly has me under a WSW and a wind advisory for tomorrow so I guess they can.  I am actually wondering if a short fused blizzard warning gets issued tomorrow for those N and W areas that are getting the heavy snows.  The winds will be strong enough however the question is will the required visibility parameters be met (1/4 mile or less for 3 hours).  With those winds you will get significant blowing and drifting and that could trigger it.

[Tatamy]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Mt. Holly has me under a WSW and a wind advisory for tomorrow so I guess they can.  I am actually wondering if a short fused blizzard warning gets issued tomorrow for those N and W areas that are getting the heavy snows.  The winds will be strong enough however the question is will the required visibility parameters be met (1/4 mile or less for 3 hours).  With those winds you will get significant blowing and drifting and that could trigger it.

Note that there is no longer a blizzard watch.  If Parameters are met then the WSW goes straight to a blizzard warning.

[Shades]

14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What's up with the laser straight line snow amounts on the east side of that?  Never seen snow amounts with such a sharp straight edge

I was about to inquire the same, this as most models have grid issues, but this looks bizarre for raw output, unless there's post-processing algorithms.

[Tatamy]

18 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What's up with the laser straight line snow amounts on the east side of that?  Never seen snow amounts with such a sharp straight edge

There is going to be a fairly sharp gradient between those areas that get the heavy snow and those that don’t.  This is something that is actually more common than you might think.  In this case that gradient looks to set up along I287.  It might not be quite as sharp as the output shown on the clown map.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Note that there is no longer a blizzard watch.  If Parameters are met then the WSW goes straight to a blizzard warning.

I’m sure you realize this so I’m just saying it general, but the heaviest snow will not coincide with the strongest winds. The strong Nw winds are a drier wind and snow will be tapering off at that time 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Tatamy said:

There is going to be a fairly sharp gradient between those areas that get the heavy snow and those that don’t.  This is something that is actually more common than you might think.  In this case that gradient looks to set up along I287.

I don't think you see what I'm talking about all the other snow amounts lol normal,  it looks like someone took a mark and thicken an area but didn't smooth it out but instead made it jagged looking

[HeadInTheClouds]

19 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

What's up with the laser straight line snow amounts on the east side of that?  Never seen snow amounts with such a sharp straight edge

Not sure. It looks like a little glitch. It's the GFS so who knows. 

[wthrmn654]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There is going to be a fairly sharp gradient between those areas that get the heavy snow and those that don’t.  This is something that is actually more common than you might think.  In this case that gradient looks to set up along I287.

Here is the map and here's is what I'm talking about lol

The dark blue line edge looks to "sharp" but what is that blue line?  Is as if the snow just hit a wall and that's the extent of the heavier amounts another over 1.2 inches

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Here is the map and here's is what I'm talking about lol

The gradient will be sharp however it may not be quite that sharp.  This may be related to how the algorithm used by the website uses the output provided by the model.

[HeadInTheClouds]

30 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It got colder and snowier from 12z. 

No it didn't. It has less snow for some. 12z Vs 18z

 

 

 

[Shades]

I suppose climatology has weight in prognostic output, and this may be more evident when it's a bigger factor in mid-March, setting a very linear gradient, it even protracts around the metro Philly area. 

[Tatamy]

There have been comments made about the snow amounts being provided by the RGEM (RDPS).   One of the Mets on the board- SnowGoose - provided an explanation this morning on this thread regarding this.  It has to do with the Synoptics playing out with this storm and how the model handles it.  

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

There have been comments made about the snow amounts being provided by the RGEM.  One of the Mets on the board- SnowGoose - provided an explanation this morning on this thread regarding this.  It has to do with the Synoptics playing out with this storm and how the model handles it.  

Yes, he talked about it delaying cold air in these situations which makes sense because the snow amounts are definitely underdone especially N and W.