3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/11/2022 at 5:30 PM, Rtd208 said:

 

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Yes with this storm I agree the warm surface, the rain and March don't matter. Once it flips it will be very heavy and stick fast and then all those other factors go out the window.  The factor that matters here is how much decent precip is left when the changeover happens. 

[donsutherland1]

  On 3/11/2022 at 5:02 PM, jm1220 said:

How has the HREF been this season? It was somewhat too aggressive with the last slip/snow event this week. Is there a 12z HREF out yet? 

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Here it is:

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/11/2022 at 5:08 PM, Dark Star said:

Could just cut and paste this statement, story of this winter...

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I have a different take, most places south or east of NYC are at or above seasonal averages. NYC could get closer to seasonal averages if they can get a few inches out of this.

[HVSnowLover]

Euro not backing down from the colder solution

 

[HVSnowLover]

[HVSnowLover]

I only have access to Euro 10:1 snowmaps, would imagine ratios would be higher inland as Euro is very cold.  

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:03 PM, HVSnowLover said:

I only have access to Euro 10:1 snowmaps, would imagine ratios would be higher inland as Euro is very cold

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[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 5:08 PM, Dark Star said:

Could just cut and paste this statement, story of this winter...

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Uh ? I have seen two 6+ snow events.

I'm 5 inches below normal right now in Brooklyn.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:07 PM, MJO812 said:

 

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I hope everyone in Sloatsburg is ok if they get 6 inches tomorrow.

[Greg g]

I have an event in Lodi, jersey to attend at 11am .. hopefully it’s not too bad then 

[Brasiluvsnow]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:14 PM, HVSnowLover said:

I hope everyone in Sloatsburg is ok if they get 6 inches tomorrow.

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Damn HV you beat me to it,,,,,

[the_other_guy]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:08 PM, MJO812 said:

Uh ? I have seen two 6+ snow events.

I'm 5 inches below normal right now in Brooklyn.

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Which means you had a pretty garbage winter.

 

Dont spin it as anything else. haha

 

How many days did you have snow on the ground in Brooklyn? Even a week?

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:19 PM, the_other_guy said:

Which means you had a pretty garbage winter.

 

Dont spin it as anything else. haha

 

How many days did you have snow on the ground in Brooklyn? Even a week?

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Considering my average is 27

I'm pretty much near average although slightly below normal. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:20 PM, HVSnowLover said:

How often does NYC have snow on the ground for over a week in any winter tbh? 

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Last year NYChad snow cover for 25 consecutive days after the February 1 storm. To paint it as a rarity to have snow on the ground for over a week in an entire winter Is just bad information. Granted the three winters before 2020/21 were horrible for snow cover in city. Remember snow cover is also calculated in the Park, most cities don’t keep much snow cover on their sidewalks. 

[Allsnow]

Euro!!!

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:27 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Last year NYChad snow cover for 25 consecutive days after the February 1 storm. To paint it as a rarity to have snow on the ground for over a week in an entire winter Is just bad information. Granted the three winters before 2020/21 were horrible for snow cover in city. Remember snow cover is also calculated in the Park, most cities don’t keep much snow cover on their sidewalks. 

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I actually deleted my post because I realize it was off topic but thanks for clarifying. I guess if we are counting snow inside of a park I could see that.  Also last Feb was a bit unusual as we had a very active pattern and multiple snowstorms in the city in Feb.

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:28 PM, Allsnow said:

Euro!!!

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Welcome 

Snowman mad

[snowman19]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:36 PM, MJO812 said:

Welcome 

Snowman mad

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Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:38 PM, snowman19 said:

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO

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Weren't you hugging the 18Z NAM yesterday that was showing like no snow anywhere SE of the catskills. 

[ILoveWinter]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:38 PM, snowman19 said:

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closet to reality IMO

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It's true that this may not amount to much snow wise in the immediate metro but it wouldn't be because you were right. It's much easier to be a warm weenie and claim a forecast victory in this area as things more often than not don't work out for us in the snow department, espec in March.

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:48 PM, ILoveWinter said:

It's true that this may not amount to much snow wise in the immediate metro but it wouldn't be because you were right. It's much easier to be a warm weenie and claim a forecast victory in this area as things more often than not don't work out for us in the snow department, espec in March.

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He also treats it as if everyone is expecting a blizzard. I think most people know this is a 1-3 inch event for NYC and immediate suburbs at best but we still track because we like snow and it's the last winter storm of the season. 

[romba]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:38 PM, snowman19 said:

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO

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You're everything you complain about weenies. You pick and choose models too, just based on lowest output.

[winterwx21]

WWAs definitely need to be expanded way to the southeast. With arctic air pouring in, roads will become slippery. Much different from the last event where it was a struggle to accumulate even on colder surfaces. I think I'd go with a 1 to 3 inch forecast for my area, but we can hope models like Euro and HRRR are correct about getting a little more than that.

[Blizzwalker]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:38 PM, snowman19 said:

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO

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There is empirical prediction...Then there is wishcasting.

Wishcasting goes both ways...

We should recognize it in ourselves-if we're going to call it out in others...

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Stop bantering with him, it’s what he craves. He’s a predator that feeds off of hate, a sad way to live life.

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:52 PM, HVSnowLover said:

He also treats it as if everyone is expecting a blizzard. I think most people know this is a 1-3 inch event for NYC and immediate suburbs at best but we still track because we like snow and it's the last winter storm of the season. 

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Exactly

I'm saying NYC has a shot at 1-3 inches. This will most likely be the last snow of the season.

[Brian5671]

  On 3/11/2022 at 7:04 PM, MJO812 said:

Exactly

I'm saying NYC has a shot at 1-3 inches. This will most likely be the last snow of the season.

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Big win if there's 1-3 that's for sure. I'm concerned the RGEM shows nothing.     Some bad luck with this system and the last with them being centered around mid-day vs overnight.

[Snowlover11]

why does anyone even respond to him? i hope the wind knocks his power out and his cell phone charger blows up in his 6” of snow.

[White Gorilla]

  On 3/11/2022 at 6:38 PM, snowman19 said:

Funny how you’re spiking the football already, 24 hours out, it’s going to be funny tomorrow when you get less than an inch to total in NYC lol Watch the models back way off at 0Z tonight. The RGEM and CMC are the closest to reality IMO

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On cue.  

[winterwx21]

  On 3/11/2022 at 7:08 PM, Brian5671 said:

Big win if there's 1-3 that's for sure. I'm concerned the RGEM shows nothing.     Some bad luck with this system and the last with them being centered around mid-day vs overnight.

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Don't know if I would say RGEM has nothing. It has less than other models, but it does get about 1 inch to NYC. I have a feeling it will increase the amounts on the next couple runs. I love the RGEM but there are too many other models showing that this has a good chance of giving NYC at least a couple inches. I'm less concerned about the midday issue this time too because true arctic air will be rushing in.