3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[snowman19]

The new GFS looks like the NAM and RGEM. The ICON is similar for the metro area as well. We seem to be closing in on consensus: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/10/2022 at 10:05 PM, snowman19 said:

The new GFS looks like the NAM and RGEM. The ICON is similar for the metro area as well. We seem to be closing in on consensus: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

Expand  

It might not snow near NYC but I find it interesting you are conveniently leaving out the top 3 ranked models.  

[mob1]

The Euro is likely going to be wrong, it's just so much colder than most models. 

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 12:16 AM, mob1 said:

The Euro is likely going to be wrong, it's just so much colder than most models. 

Expand  

It focuses on another low. It might be right.

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

  On 3/11/2022 at 12:16 AM, mob1 said:

The Euro is likely going to be wrong, it's just so much colder than most models. 

Expand  

If the low is in that spot it will be that cold, it's way east of any other model right now. 

[mob1]

Not really relevant to our area, but look how deep the low gets just 24 hours later. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 3/11/2022 at 12:34 AM, mob1 said:

Not really relevant to our area, but look how deep the low gets just 24 hours later. 

Expand  

Would love to be on the coast of Labrador for that. Hurricane force sustained winds and feet of snow.

I think the precip ends just too late for the City east before the cold arrives.  

[brooklynwx99]

there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion

tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it

[bluewave]

  On 3/11/2022 at 12:34 AM, mob1 said:

Not really relevant to our area, but look how deep the low gets just 24 hours later. 

Expand  

Those would be record breaking low pressure values for that part of Canada.

 

 

[Santa Claus]

  On 3/10/2022 at 9:26 PM, wdrag said:

Hi!  I toss this in here.  It will soon get lost, but if anyone catches this.. you're welcome to join the North Jersey Weather Observers group in a zoom meeting that begins at 7PM.  The pertinent details are in the link below.  Capacity is 100 so priority goes to the NJWO, but I'm sure if you're interested in processes that I use to make a forecast from trends In Tropical Tidbits, Pivotal Weather and use of Robert Harts FSU page, plus use of NWS graphics,  this would be a good time to sit in and monitor - ask questions.  I'm sure the first 15-20 minutes of the meeting that starts at 7, will be dedicated to the NJWO minutes/business. 

 

I'll be logged on  early but won't go into any Q&A, forecasting processes until after 7PM.  This will be more or less the way I prepare for my winter hazardous wx 6AM FB post (BOS-AVL). 

Please don't try to use the members only link.  Use the longer(in blue) zoom link below that.  Begin logging in at 650 and if any problems, Dave Dabour will try to ease the access. Thank you.  

https://njwo.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/zoom-meeting-members-only-link/

 

 

Expand  

what a treat that was, thank you so much Walt.

[rorodes]

https://twitter.com/mikemasco/status/1502075536981516289?s=21

any validity to this?

[LibertyBell]

  On 3/11/2022 at 1:14 AM, bluewave said:

Those would be record breaking low pressure values for that part of Canada.

 

 

Expand  

why do they get all the fun?  How come we dont see any 920 mb lows around here?

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

  On 3/11/2022 at 1:29 AM, LibertyBell said:

why do they get all the fun?  How come we dont see any 920 mb lows around here?

 

Expand  

You do realize even way up there in eastern Labrador and all of New Foundland it’s going to be almost all rain. 
 

Yeah I’ll pass on that. 

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

HRRRR looks like Euro, Both NAMs still warm with the main show although 3K has a second wave later in the day that brings a little snow.   

[LibertyBell]

  On 3/11/2022 at 1:44 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You do realize even way up there in eastern Labrador and all of New Foundland it’s going to be almost all rain. 
 

Yeah I’ll pass on that. 

Expand  

I know but I've always wondered what causes storms to become so strong up there and why it doesn't happen down here, where our waters are warmer and the gulf stream actually passes close by.

 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 3:53 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

Expand  

Gefs  is also east of 18z

[HeadInTheClouds]

[SnoSki14]

Obviously don't expect much unless you live in NW NJ but some accumulation seems likely given trends. 

[BxSnowWx37]

Interesting times ahead. I've been on the side of heavy rain to heavy snow for 3 days now. It's gd to see it keep inching closer to that snowy solution.. 

[BxSnowWx37]

  On 3/11/2022 at 4:34 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Obviously don't expect much unless you live in NW NJ but some accumulation seems likely given trends. 

Expand  

It's gonna snow to the coastal plain,just how much falls is the??

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 4:35 AM, BxSnowWx37 said:

It's gonna snow to the coastal plain,just how much falls is the??

Expand  

I agree

Gefs look pretty good for everyone 

[BxSnowWx37]

  On 3/11/2022 at 4:37 AM, MJO812 said:

I agree

Gefs look pretty good for everyone 

Expand  

I'd say..the ensembles look juicy surprisingly for nyc. And that's more then 50% of them..

[HeadInTheClouds]

GEFS Mean 

 

 

[BxSnowWx37]

Snowman never roots for snow when even his name sez it!!..the ultimate oxymoron!!

[BxSnowWx37]

  On 3/11/2022 at 4:45 AM, HeadInTheClouds said:

GEFS Mean 

 

 

Expand  

Looks gd. I'd take 4 to 6 in this setup..

[MJO812]

  On 3/11/2022 at 4:46 AM, BxSnowWx37 said:

Snowman never roots for snow when even his name sez it!!..the ultimate oxymoron!!

Expand  

Hes annoying 

[HeadInTheClouds]

UKIE