3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[HVSnowLover]

[HeadInTheClouds]

Rapidly intensifying low. High impact event but might have to be far N and W to see accumulating snow. 

 

[Roger Smith]

If this follows the CMC guidance could see 70-80 mph W-NW wind gusts in some areas Saturday afternoon and evening, it's a very intense storm tracking almost right overhead and the thickness gradient behind the front is very strong. Probably around 50 F in the morning and 20 F by midnight, any snow would be squalls with the arctic front. Thunderstorm potential seems high for Long Island and southern New England, possibly severe in places. 

[Rtd208]

Potential for a multi hazard storm remains high for Friday night thru Saturday evening. Heavy rain, thunderstorms (especially eastern areas), snow (far NW areas) and high winds are likely. Winds reaching warning criteria will be possible.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Potential for a multi hazard storm remains high for Friday night thru Saturday evening. Heavy rain, thunderstorms (especially eastern areas), snow (far NW areas) and high winds are likely. Winds reaching warning criteria will be possible.

I hope so, models have had a tendency to weaken systems as we get closer. Would love a powerful amped up storm. 

[gpsnavigator]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I hope so, models have had a tendency to weaken systems as we get closer. Would love a powerful amped up storm. 

I'm curious as to why besides the wow factor?  There would be a risk for damage and power outages and with temperatures falling into the teens and 20s, I'm not sure that's a combination to hope for.

[MJO812]

Yawn more rain 

[HeadInTheClouds]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yawn more rain 

Looks that way unfortunately. 

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

Som

[STORMANLI]

Great having storms to track March 2022.

March 2021 all I tracked was mud into the house.

[HeadInTheClouds]

[HVSnowLover]

Euro made this more interesting for places NW of the city. 

[HVSnowLover]

CMC, GFS, and Euro all came east at 12Z. Euro is the furthest east right now. 

[HVSnowLover]

20 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Definitely taking a trip to at least Orange County if that verifies for 1 pm on Saturday. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Definitely taking a trip to at least Orange County if that verifies for 1 pm on Saturday. 

It could be a few hours of the good stuff as the low moves east and cold air rushes in. Euro gives me 6 but CMC and GFS only 1-2. Central NYS and Albany on north are the place to be with this one. 

[MJO812]

Eps has some nice members offshore. Let's get this thing further east.

[wishcast_hater]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has some nice members offshore. Let's get this thing further east.

Would be nice for us Folks N&W to finally cash in. I wouldn’t mind a legit snowstorm after all the garbage we got all season. 

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has some nice members offshore. Let's get this thing further east.

This is not a NYC storm but would be nice to see the HV cash in finally but right now agree with HeadintheClouds you want to be Binghamton to Albany with this one.  

[forkyfork]

it's a gulf origin miller a so i expect a nw trend in the final 48 hours

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's a gulf origin miller a so i expect a nw trend in the final 48 hours

Agree I don't think I've ever seen a storm with this look 3 days out turn into an I95 snowstorm. I'm still tracking though because it does look like an exciting storm and any flakes in March is better than none.

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

This is not a NYC storm but would be nice to see the HV cash in finally but right now agree with HeadintheClouds you want to be Binghamton to Albany with this one.  

I’m hoping the I-81 corridor can finally have a nice event this season. They’ve been shut out all winter. 

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m hoping the I-81 corridor can finally have a nice event this season. They’ve been shut out all winter. 

Didn't they do decently with the last storm that was sleet/zr here or not that great? I know Albany did decently with that storm.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Didn't they do decently with the last storm that was sleet/zr here or not that great? I know Albany did decently with that storm.

That was an I-90 focused storm. So the part of I-81 near I-90 like around Syracuse did OK but they’re also way below average this winter. 

[snowman19]

39 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's a gulf origin miller a so i expect a nw trend in the final 48 hours

100%, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low, +AO, shortwave amps, it’s pretty much guaranteed to come northwest. Also, once you get the big thunderstorm blowups in the SE, the latent heat release aloft is going to really pump the SE ridge big time…..

[HeadInTheClouds]

43 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Would be nice for us Folks N&W to finally cash in. I wouldn’t mind a legit snowstorm after all the garbage we got all season. 

I wouldn't count on it especially for you in Lagrange area. Maybe rain changing to snow for a little while as storm moves east. I think we have to be farther N and W than we are to see heavy snows but we will see. 

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yawn more rain 

Good for ski areas…and it’s mid March after a mediocre winter

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I wouldn't count on it especially for you in Lagrange area. Maybe rain changing to snow for a little while as storm moves east. I think we have to be farther N and W than we are to see heavy snows but we will see. 

Yea I could see places like Western Ulster County doing well with this but east of the Hudson will be way harder with this.   

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

100%, no -NAO block, no 50/50 low, +AO, shortwave amps, it’s pretty much guaranteed to come northwest. Also, once you get the big thunderstorm blowups in the SE, the latent heat release aloft is going to really pump the SE ridge big time…..

This always happens

Finally a good post from you  

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree I don't think I've ever seen a storm with this look 3 days out turn into an I95 snowstorm. I'm still tracking though because it does look like an exciting storm and any flakes in March is better than none.

Same here

I hope this shifts more east