jrips27 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Mrwolf1972 said: 12z nam That’s the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 NAM smokes middle TN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I think nws is downplaying this to much I may be wrong we shall see. MRX's favorite statements are "too warm to stick" or "high sun angle" Don't get me wrong, in a lot of cases they are right. But I also seem to remember many cases it's bit them in the butt. I've watched a foot of snow fall after nearly a week of temps in the 70s when I lived up in Maryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12 z nam runs the low to close snow mostly on plateau some in valley but hammers the plateau. Didn't we have a storm recently do the same thing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Kuchera if anyone needs it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Here’s the 3K NAM 10:1 ratio Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Wouldn't surprise me if it trended more to plateau/Nashville area. It has done that this whole winter it seems. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Here’s the 3K NAM 10:1 ratio Kuchera Complete with the EB @Holston_River_Rambler...perfectly placed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Wouldn't surprise me if it trended more to plateau/Nashville area. It has done that this whole winter it seems. Live by the NAM and die by the NAM. LOL. No idea which way that trends in actuality, but that would fit the seasonal trend. That said, the NAM is squirrelly as all get out...at this range. It just moved the snow axis about 250 miles. Will be interesting to see where other modeling ends up. It was quite a bit north(really wound up) and had energy transfer. We will see if that is the trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The 3K NAM looks far more realistic than the 12k. The 12k certainly looked like it had feedback issues. If it didn't, that is a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Maybe I’m wrong but it seems like the NAM always leads the way with the first big adjustment. Maybe it’s too amped which would pull it NW but if it doesn’t start to move back on the next run or two, the valley is in trouble IMO. Hopefully it’s bias is showing up . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 48 HRRR isn't too bad either. Still some flurries/light snow showers hanging around at the end of the run.Hope I’m not overreacting but that looks similar to the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Going to be tough looking at brown ground at ktri (once again) but probably a fitting end to a bad winter imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 46 minutes ago, jrips27 said: That’s the 6z I deleted and posted the correct but ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The 12z RDPS is somehow even bigger than any run so far :O 16" near Jamestown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 RGEM is still on board. Hammers the plateau! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Complete with the EB @Holston_River_Rambler...perfectly placed Oh yeah, that is eerie, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wurbus said: RGEM is still on board. Hammers the plateau! That run looked better then the nam not as close to the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Mrwolf1972 said: I think nws is downplaying this to much I may be wrong we shall see. That's KMRX younger generation Mets for you there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z RGEM looks good... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Foot or more call for the Plateau is looking good. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 With this storm deepening as it passes, I would not be surprised to see some incredible results on the Plateau. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Going to be tough looking at brown ground at ktri (once again) but probably a fitting end to a bad winter imby. American modeling has been ho-hum for sure. Seems like other modeling is a bit better. We are either going to find that non-American modeling was too flat or the NAM/GFS were too amped. I would slightly favor over-amped for American modeling, but only slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The 12z GFS is rolling. Only 7 more runs before this is under way...so trends matter at this point....so we won't have to wait long before knowing where this run is heading. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I could be wrong, but looks slightly more amplified at 24 which would allow for a NW jog. I was wrong on this yesterday as the system just dug and then ejected more to the east than I would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Edit...flow looks more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Wherever this goes, it "should" be a hair stronger as it dug a bit more in the SW. May create a slightly slower solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 At 42 it is just hammering the Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 This run is rocking...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Winner Winner Chicken Dinner 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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