Reb Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: 06z GFS maintains major winter storm status. 4-12 inches across most of the forum with the large area of 6+ falling in the Eastern half. 3km NAM is quite a hitter as well. How was the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Reb said: 3km NAM is quite a hitter as well. How was the Euro? The Euro is 1-3 across the middle and west areas and 3-6+ from the Plateau Eastward, north of about Athens or so. It's the fastest out with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Here is nam gfs and rdps 06z all look similar in totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Nam 3k looks good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 09z RAP hot off the presses. Still snowing Plateau east here as the Low is just north of Charlotte at 995. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Starting to belive this might happen hope it don't bite me in the azz all.models look to be in agreement for the most part it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The maps look good. I just hope we can can something down here. Local Mets in Chattanooga this morning saying there will be a brief changeover with maybe a 3 hour window for snow showers. They were showing a map with less than 1" "possible"but if that happens it would only be in some grassy areas. I would love to see a completely white ground. I'm really hoping for the models to just be even 50% accurate. That would be a huge win for our area. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Wow, great trends last night! The heaviest snow axis is starting to look more consolidated. Noticed that Eastman snow hole has filled in as well. Is there a reason for the better totals out east? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I will say, it does look like there is still a possibility of mixing, so I am still somewhat sceptical of the higher amounts. Here is 3k (which I think has done well with warm layers this winter). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Wow, great trends last night! The heaviest snow axis is starting to look more consolidated. Noticed that Eastman snow hole has filled in as well. Is there a reason for the better totals out east? Not enough coffee to dig into exciting things like frontogenesis right not, but I think we had a pretty nice slp pass on some of those runs. Been prepping for my Boone trip which all but guarantees someone gets hammered. I'll be following along though and may force the people I'm staying with to drive me the 20 minutes up to Beech Mt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: I will say, it does look like there is still a possibility of mixing, so I am still somewhat sceptical of the higher amounts. Here is 3k (which I think has done well with warm layers this winter). Those(sleet and zr) are great signs. Many good storms have mixing issues. I am sure someone understands the physics, but have seen that many times here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 MRX... National Weather Service Morristown TN 628 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 ...Discussion: During the day Friday, a potent shortwave trough will quickly dig across the plains while baroclinicity takes place across the Tennessee Valley. Southerly low level flow will ramp up on Friday advecting moisture and warmer air poleward. High temperatures on Friday will easily rise into the mid 60`s and possibly upper 60`s assuming skies can clear out as expected. Heading into Friday evening, the trough continues to dig into the Mississippi River Valley inducing low level cyclogenesis across the western Gulf of Mexico. A resulting surface low is progged to deepen and lift northeast. Increasing jet dynamics develop after 00Z and quickly lead to a saturated profile with precipitation developing Friday evening and into Friday night. The atmosphere will be warm enough for much of this precipitation to be rain. As the cold front sweeps through the area early Saturday morning, much colder air will quickly filter in as 850mb temperatures crash. With plenty of upper level support in place, we will likely still see plenty of precipitation across the area that will be heavy at times. Recent data suggests that some drier air within the -12 to -18C layer could limit dendritic growth initially but eventually enough moisture moves back in for efficient dendritic growth leading to heavy snowfall rates. There are a number of factors that make this snow forecast a bit uncertain and difficult. As mentioned in previous discussions, recent warmth and warmer soils will tend to mitigate initial snow accumulations, and it will take very high snowfall rates to overcome these factors. With that said, there could be a window of 3 hours or so with heavy snowfall rates that would allow for some snow to accumulate on mainly grassy surfaces. At this point, believe impacts to roads will be limited but cannot rule out some patchy snow on roads especially across the northern Cumberland Plateau, southwest Virginia, and across the mountains of East Tennessee. The actual snow forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous forecast with amounts up to 2 inches across the northern Plateau, southwest Virginia, and East Tennessee mountains. There are some signals for higher amounts up to 4 inches in the highest mountains of southwest Virginia, and the Smokies. Elsewhere, expect mainly 1 to 2 inches of snow north of I-40 and a dusting elsewhere. Obviously lower confidence remains across the valley where more negative factors are at play that would limit snow accumulations. Moisture pushes east through the day Saturday with lowering PoPs expected from west to east. The forecast does hold onto PoPs a bit longer than NBM guidance as sufficient low level moisture and even an increase in low level lapse rates could support snow shower activity through the day Saturday. Temperatures will be much colder Saturday with highest barely expected to get above freezing. A northwest winds will bring those wind chills into the lower 20`s during the day. Finally, high pressure situated across the Southern Appalachians will bring clearing skies, and calm winds which will allow temperatures to bottom out. Lows in the teens seem likely across much of the area with single digits not out of the question in the higher terrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 For NE TN peeps, we have the 3k/12k NAM and the 0z Euro in our camp. GFS was trending that way. Morristown westward looked good overnight. Need one more jog like the 3K NAM for our area. I don't like sharing a foxhole with the Euro or NAM as they have been jumpy this winter. Though, one would think at this range that they are starting to narrow the cone. For now, heaviest snows looks to fall somewhere between the west side of the Plateau and Bean Station(little shout out to a well named city) or maybe even Bluff City. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Will be interesting to see how the model runs trend today, seems like a pretty good look at this point. A lot can change in 48 hours though. Looks like winter weather advisories are up now in northern Arkansas. I’m curious to see what NWS does for advisories in west, middle, and east TN over the next day or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6z Euro looks pretty much steady to me: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Those(sleet and zr) are great signs. Many good storms have mixing issues. I am sure someone understands the physics, but have seen that many times here. Yeah, absolutely. That also suggests there are going to be some major impacts. Sleet is pretty great at creating some icy conditions even with marginal temps. I also saw MRX mention the possibility of snow shower activity after the main slug of moisture exits. Another good sign. Snow showers after a big storm seems to be common for the big dogs. I have received a rouge inch or half inch from those in the past after the main event. Notice it tends to happen when really cold air is in place as well, which we will have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Steady run by the 6z Euro. Chattanooga folks are in the mix on the 6z Euro run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Steady run by the Euro. Chattanooga folks are in the mix on the 6z Euro run. I will say, I find the Euro's snow maps to be a little more realistic and more climate based. Higher totals in the mountains and Upper Plateau with a pretty decent hit in the valley and surrounding areas. I am personally just wanting a solid 3 inches at this point. It has remained elusive all winter. Got close one time (a little over 2), with a few one 1 inchers in between. I swear one winter I will probably get my way to average with 30 car topper events. #valleylife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: I will say, I find the Euro's snow maps to be a little more realistic and more climate based. Higher totals in the mountains and Upper Plateau with a pretty decent hit in the valley and surrounding areas. I am personally just wanting a solid 3 inches at this point. It has remained elusive all winter. Got close one time (a little over 2), with a few one 1 inchers in between. I swear one winter I will probably get my way to average with 30 car topper events. #valleylife Area of slp might be 10 miles to the NNW of where it was at 0z on the 6z Euro. Cold air moves in slightly(and I mean slightly) quicker. Going to be a tight fit for our areas and eastward, but that track (along with earlier cold air) would make huge changes. Looks to me like the front itself is the changeover line on model, meaning once the heavy rates arrive so does the cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Knoxville looks good on overnight model runs. That doesn't surprise me given the set-up. That is a great track for Knoxville proper. On to 12z! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 And the Northern Plateau looks optimal for this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 SREF Plumes are......uuhhhh......interesting... Might be a fun 12z suite incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I've been watching them for most storms and may have missed a few runs here and there, but IMO that is the best SREF run of the season, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3hr mean snowfall: light green = 1-2 and dark green = 2-3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I've been watching them for most storms and may have missed a few runs here and there, but IMO that is the best SREF run of the season, lol. Wow! You were not lying. HUGE jumps. Average went up to 4.5 from 2 in TYS. A lot more big dogs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Wow! You were not lying. HUGE jumps. Average went up to 4.5 from 2 in TYS. A lot more big dogs. Even Chatt has over a 3" mean.Nashville is also at 4.2". Pretty good means across the board on that SREF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 For NE TN peeps, we have the 3k/12k NAM and the 0z Euro in our camp. GFS was trending that way. Morristown westward looked good overnight. Need one more jog like the 3K NAM for our area. I don't like sharing a foxhole with the Euro or NAM as they have been jumpy this winter. Though, one would think at this range that they are starting to narrow the cone. For now, heaviest snows looks to fall somewhere between the west side of the Plateau and Bean Station(little shout out to a well named city) or maybe even Bluff City.I'm hoping NE TN scores on this. Long overdue. I'm concerned about the wind Saturday morning up here on Big Bald. The ground is extremely wet here and I have a feeling there's gonna be quite a few downed trees/ power outages.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 48 HRRR isn't too bad either. Still some flurries/light snow showers hanging around at the end of the run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I think nws is downplaying this to much I may be wrong we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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