Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 March storms are just notoriously difficult to nail down. The book on this won't be closed until Friday at 0z - if then. Just because most of us are in this thread...the 18z GFS is just one bowling ball after another. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Eh not great trends for East TN on the 18z runs. More mixing. Better for middle and west which has been the theme all year. Is this another Lucy and the football situation for us in the valley? Doesn’t make sense that SE trends benefited W/M Tennessee but hurt ETn. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z GEFS mean increased over 12z. 12z is on the left. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, Wurbus said: 18z GEFS mean increased over 12z. 12z is on the left. The heavier looks for the eastern valley...some are just some monsters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Yeah not bad. Probabilities looking pretty good as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Can't post the map right now, but the 18z Euro looked pretty similar to 12z, maybe even a tick weaker and SE with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Actually I got a second to grab this (no Kuchera available): 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 47 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Actually I got a second to grab this (no Kuchera available): Here is the Kuchera for comparison. Honestly not that different from the 12z Euro. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: Here is the Kuchera for comparison. Honestly not that different from the 12z Euro. 18z Euro was a textbook track...couldn't draw it up better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 @Holston_River_Rambler, are you able to make a gif of the track or precip shield(like you did for 12z) for the 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @Holston_River_Rambler, are you able to make a gif of the track or precip shield(like you did for 12z) for the 18z run? Yeah: weathermodels is so slow sometimes, the precip type is only out to hour 30 and this is as close as I can zoom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 0z NAM looks like it will come in better than 18z. Precip. is more WSW -> ENE, instead of SW -> NE. A little flatter flow than 18z. Still a bit of LP into the east TN foothills, but better than 18z IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I guess it would have been more accurate to say the precip is more SW -> NE than SSW -> NNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Bring on the RGEM! Maybe the best run of any model for the forum area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: Bring on the RGEM! Maybe the best run of any model for the forum area. And look at the low temps Sunday AM in the lower single digits across the area! It has a cold bias though in general, but with 1/2 foot of snow on the ground it would certainly be possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just beautiful! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 0z GFS is not quite the RGEM but it wasn't too far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 It ticked ever so slightly back south/southeast. Better than 18z for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The Canadian looks almost exactly like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Canadian Ratio'd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Even the UKIE is pretty well on board. You rarely see this much model consensus within 3 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 GEFS honking big over the Knoxville area and pretty good state wide. Kuchera would probably be even higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 06z NAM is coming in pretty close to the 0z RGEM. Frigid and plenty of moisture, dumping big totals across the forum area. AMZ gets 8 inches or so out west, 6-8 for Knox to Tri. 4-6 in the mid-state, 3-4 in Northern Alabama and even Chattanooga. 8-12 Plateau, SEKY and SWVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The cold is very impressive too. The NAM, which often has a warm bias, has my area in the low to mid 20s in the afternoon between 1 and 4 pm. That's blizzard of 93 afternoon temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The 06z RGEM is actually more massive than the 0z was. More of the region sees over 12 inches fall. Knox is right at 8 inches. 8-10 around the greater Nashville area. Especially just east of there and still a solid 4-6 out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 MRX has little faith, they admit some heavy snow will fall but don't think it will accumulate for the most part, maybe 2 inches in the higher parts of the Plateau and 4 in the mountains. If it's in the 20s, at night, with heavy snow falling, it's accumulating on every surface, including roadways. Period. Here's a link about the myth of too warm to stick. https://www.iweathernet.com/educational/weather-myths/too-warm-for-the-snow-to-stick 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 To put in perspective the ground temperature here vs the ground temp in Atlanta in March 1983, I was in the low to mid 20s the first 3 days of the month. There's been two days this month with a low above the 30s and it's 36 right now. Atlanta hadn't been below freezing in 10 days when that storm hit and that was 31 10 days prior to the storm. That was their only day below 32 the first 23 days of March. They'd been in the 80s during the month. If you go back to the last 30 days, I was in the 10s 6 times and the low 20s 4 others, including 22 on Feb 28th. So it was below 25 4 of the last 10 days here. The current soil temps are in the lower 40s across most of the forum area. I think heavy snow falling with a temp in the upper 20s and falling, will get it done as far as accumulating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 06z GFS maintains major winter storm status. 4-12 inches across most of the forum with the large area of 6+ falling in the Eastern half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Final note before I catch a couple hours sleep. JKL acknowledges that at least 3-5 inches are likely across their entire CWA but have only issued winter products for parts of it. They are rolling with the NMB but note that even the Euro is a major snow storm for their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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