March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro:

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Euro:

Looks like it has a SE trend as well.  I am only out to hour 50 or so.  Looks like it may make a clean pass.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Kuchera Map:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like it has a SE trend as well.  I am only out to hour 50 or so.  Looks like it may make a clean pass.

Yeah it looked like it flattened the system out a bit and made a clean pass. Will be interesting to see how all this plays out in March. Is the reality of the system more amped and does it have more precip?

I'll be in Boone, so John upstream from me should be locked into half a foot, lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

SREFs in an hour, lol 

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the slp is indeed SE which follows the trend of other 12z modeling.  It is also 1mb weaker.  Storm is slightly more strung out.  

[Carvers Gap]

Hard to get much better of a look than this.  

 

[Dsty2001]

I'd be happy to just see some flakes falling in March, anything else would be a bonus

[zippity]

Few things are better than a classic Miller A in the springtime…

[John1122]

I'm going to hope 50 percent of what falls sticks/accumulates. I'd be generally in 3-4 inches if that happens.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm going to hope 50 percent of what falls sticks/accumulates. I'd be generally in 3-4 inches if that happens.

Could be power issues if the totals are legit.  

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Could be power issues if the totals are legit.  

With the temps crashing into the 20s so fast, I think it might be less hard on the power grid here. An initial sleet burst is also intriguing. Sleet accumulates more easily than anything else, it may lay down a quick base coat to aid in accumulations.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If the SREF H5 vorticity map is right, the NAM will probably come in flatter too. Probably a good thing with a last minute NW adjustment still on the table. 

[Wurbus]

Definitely less big dogs on SREF Plumes. Knoxville went from 2.5" to 1.5" average.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the mean went down at Nashville and Jackson KY too. To me that signals that it sees a flatter system overall. Of course all this is based on the SREF and it doesn't always indicate what the NAM will do during that long excruciating wait between the 12z Euro and the 18z NAM. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

0z EPS left and 12z EPS right:

[PowellVolz]

If flatter means less amped, would that suggest less chances of warm nose issues?


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[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

If flatter means less amped, would that suggest less chances of warm nose issues?


.

Correct - maybe.  LOL

[Carvers Gap]

This is a battle between a very strong cold front and a storm that will want to pull north along that front.  To me, it looks like the front is pushing and forcing the storm just a hair eastward at 12z.  That allows for a hair less organization.  I will have to look at the norms, but this might be the strongest front relative to norms IMBY.  Remember, in NE TN many of these fronts got hung up before getting here.  

[PowellVolz]

Correct - maybe.  LOL

Just thinking out loud… less GOM, less warm nose = higher ratios?


.

[Carvers Gap]

I look at track.  Once that gets relatively nailed down, then time to wait and see if modeling begins to up totals like some March storms can do from time to time.  March storms can sometimes verify stronger than modeled.  Time will tell.  

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Just thinking out loud… less GOM, less warm nose = higher ratios?


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I was laughing, because if I speak in an absolute...I will certainly be wrong.  Yes, I think that sounds about right.  Not sure about ratios, but I think it possible that the cold charges in more quickly.  Best case is modeling holds/consolidates the track from 12z and then ups totals as they begin to see the system.  A GOM system to inside Hatteras could be pretty strong.  Strung out could cause thermal profile issues.

[Silas Lang]

15 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

If flatter means less amped, would that suggest less chances of warm nose issues?


.

I think a little less amped is good right now, if only to give us some breathing room in case it comes in stronger like Carvers has been suggesting. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't think there was a huge change in the 18z NAM. It's still past 60 hours anyway. I think you could argue it was flatter in some ways (surface low placement at 6z Saturday) and more amped in others (surface low strength at 9z Saturday) than its 12z run. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

With the temps crashing into the 20s so fast, I think it might be less hard on the power grid here. An initial sleet burst is also intriguing. Sleet accumulates more easily than anything else, it may lay down a quick base coat to aid in accumulations.

Yeah, that would be a good thing and quite possibly allow for the higher end totals.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I look at track.  Once that gets relatively nailed down, then time to wait and see if modeling begins to up totals like some March storms can do from time to time.  March storms can sometimes verify stronger than modeled.  Time will tell.  

Bingo ! Excellent point Carvers. I've saw many March storms overperform by a large margin.

[John1122]

The RGEM is still on board as well. The GFS was further north slightly and it warm nosed the eastern valley up to about Loudon Co.

[Daniel Boone]

  Just looking over some archived data of the March 2-3 1942 Snowstorm. 

      That storm tracked from around Mobile thru the upstate then west of Hatteras to off Jersey Coast.

     That Storm still stands as the biggest Snowfall in most of Lee County on Record. Reportedly 34" in Jonesville. 36" in Pennington gap we're measured. Asheville received 16" from it.

    That Storm dumped on a huge area. Stretching from Ne Ga to Maine and back to eastern Ohio Valley.

   Of course, this one will be nothing like that although, track and some 500 mb features are similar.

       You can find map data on NOAA's daily weather map archived page. Also, photos from Pittsburgh of it where over 2 feet fell.. 

   

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

  Just looking over some archived data of the March 2-3 1942 Snowstorm. 

      That storm tracked from around Mobile thru the upstate then west of Hatteras to off Jersey Coast.

     That Storm still stands as the biggest Snowfall in most of Lee County on Record. Reportedly 34" in Jonesville. 36" in Pennington gap we're measured. Asheville received 16" from it.

    That Storm dumped on a huge area. Stretching from Ne Ga to Maine and back to eastern Ohio Valley.

   Of course, this one will be nothing like that although, track and some 500 mb features are similar.

       You can find map data on NOAA's daily weather map archived page. Also, photos from Pittsburgh of it where over 2 feet fell.. 

   

Knoxville got 12+ from that one as well. 

[Silas Lang]

Eh not great trends for East TN on the 18z runs. More mixing.  Better for middle and west which has been the theme all year. Is this another Lucy and the football situation for us in the valley?