Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 12z GFS is rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Pattern looks like it would support a decent northwest jog, but let's see. Sometimes I can be fooled at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Still likely to be a big event wherever it goes...vortex is very strong over the Four Corners region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Looks like a little more confluence, might be a tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Not great news, but as expect(from earlier in the run), this is likely going to send a weak area of slp up the eastern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like a little more confluence, might be a tick SE. Yep, you are on the money with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Looks to me like it came in slightly SE from 6z, but not as SE as 0z. Not a huge jump either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 That is a good trend for those in the eastern valley. We needed the northwest jog stuffs to stop. Any trend the other direction is welcomed. We don't have a lot of wiggle room if the slp moves northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Either way, we take this look 10/10 times and run with it.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 One important note, March qpf totals are often notoriously underdone for systems like this. That is something to remember. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 What's up with the very light amounts straight through Crossville and even north to Oneida on some models? Warm nose from hell? GFS shows nothing for central and south Cumberland but shows 5" on the far east and west parts of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: What's up with the very light amounts straight through Crossville and even north to Oneida on some models? Warm nose from hell? GFS shows nothing for central and south Cumberland but shows 5" on the far east and west parts of the county. Looks like the 12z GFS saw a warm nose at 700 mb for some reason in the Cumberland county area: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 pretty different profile around Knoxville: More tapered, sort of a warm cheek. I have no idea if those soundings are realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Shocker0 said: What's up with the very light amounts straight through Crossville and even north to Oneida on some models? Warm nose from hell? GFS shows nothing for central and south Cumberland but shows 5" on the far east and west parts of the county. Heavy sleet mid-Plateau. I think modeling is having a bear trying to figure out where to place the deformation bands. I have seen modeling banking a band of sleet against the Plateau on recent runs. I am trying to figure that out. I have kicked around maybe a slight downsloping effect with surface winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Big storms often have bands of sleet. This is certainly showing up on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Yeah, I am not really understanding how Knoxville is escaping the warm nose while the Plateau gets a ton of sleet. Has that even happened before? Just usually seems mixing is more elevation dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, I am not really understanding how Knoxville is escaping the warm nose while the Plateau gets a ton of sleet. Has that even happened before? Just usually seems mixing is more elevation dependent. Surprisingly I think it has a couple times over the past few years. I believe during our ice storm on the Plateau in 2015, Knoxville and East Tennessee mostly received snow. But yeah, I'm hoping it's not a sleet storm here the way it's starting to look on the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: pretty different profile around Knoxville: More tapered, sort of a warm cheek. I have no idea if those soundings are realistic. I'm terrible at deciphering these things. Would that indicate the typical "cold rain" scenario with some sleet mixed in? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The 12z CMC is still on board as well. For now, I think we are looking at 2-4" in the eastern valley with higher amounts(maybe much higher) on the northern Plateau and points in middle TN as well. This is a potent looking system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Greyhound said: I'm terrible at deciphering these things. Would that indicate the typical "cold rain" scenario with some sleet mixed in? To me it looks like a snow sounding, especially with heavier rates, but honestly wouldn't put much faith into it until I saw it falling, lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: TRI's issue, if the LR NAM is correct(massive IF), we may be too close to the slp. Been that way all winter. Let's see though. I suspect some in TRI work their way into some snow if the storm verifies. Yeah, the model's will follow that pattern somewhat as that was ingested from this Winter's track's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 It appears the model's are having trouble not implementing the thorn that plagued the Valley in January. Shift everything a few miles east and would be great. Could be, cold infiltrates enough this go round to dislodge that Thorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 12z GEFS for comparison 12z -> left.....6z -> right Note the cluster of lows is back to being over Upstate-ish SC and not over the eastern slopes of the Smokies. Good trend if you live in E TN, ie would imply less warm nose. The 12z GEFS is trying its best to get a clean pass. It is strung out a bit more as the snow totals are lower due to that. At first glance, I was like, this is trending closer to MBY. Really, I think what this implies is there is less energy transfer to the coastal plain. The SLP simply stays as one and slide up through central NC. Of note, a tertiary slp forms at the base of the departing storm. That cluster has crept a bit closer to the coast. It is probably too late in the process for that to have meaningful impacts here, but keep an eye on that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 One further note and just to beat a dead horse... Notice the cold(orange) is moving a bit quicker. Also notice the location of the genesis of the slp. That is pretty much textbook for winter storms in E TN. I make no promises as far as snow, but that is a great location. Also, notice less of a warm-nose into TN. Good trends on both the GFS and its GEFS ensemble below. As @Holston_River_Rambler, that is a jog SE. It may be just a wobble, but we really couldn't have withstood another jog NW in E TN. Trends matter at this stage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Yeah, I am not really understanding how Knoxville is escaping the warm nose while the Plateau gets a ton of sleet. Has that even happened before? Just usually seems mixing is more elevation dependent. As @Carvers Gap mentioned before… the closer you are to the rain, the heavier your rates will be. In this case Knoxville is closer to the heavier rates than the plateau. We won’t see much dynamic cooling in this event but with heavy rates comes some atmospheric cooling from the top down and it’s likely this is beating back the warm layer (which is probably very shallow). Another possibility is we have seen before with a NW wind, the valley can “trap” cold air all the way up to the lower mid levels in a perfect setup. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Surprisingly I think it has a couple times over the past few years. I believe during our ice storm on the Plateau in 2015, Knoxville and East Tennessee mostly received snow. But yeah, I'm hoping it's not a sleet storm here the way it's starting to look on the models.This is correct. In this storm the western side of the apps had major downsloping issues but for whatever reason, they didn’t make it west of the mountain counties. The valley NW of 75/40 and west of 81 had a CAD type situation. I’m just north of Knoxville and I stayed all snow and never made it out of the 20’s. At the same time Gatlinburg was in the mid 40’s with rain. I’ve actually wondered if there could have been a weak inverted trough up the valley which negated the downsloping and also added more lift in the valley to help keep the column cold. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 12z Euro is rolling. It is following a similar 12z GFS trend of a very slight sharpening of the gradient ahead of the storm at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Looks like it will keep the surface low east of the Apps. East of Charlotte at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 12gfs ens much lower then the 6z gfs ens totals. 6z gfs ens 12z gfs ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 AT 57, the gradient is flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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