nrgjeff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Early Congratulations @Knoxtron! Baby previous page. I agree roads will be fine or at least easily passable by Monday. Free for All Friday: MRX refers to kissing jets. I want to make love to the upper level set-up. I was going to say the obligatory last-minute bump-up of snowfall totals. Appears justified this time. Normally I'm skeptical just-in-time cold. However we have key factors. We get classic jet induced / PVA upward vertical motion with thick DGZ. Also the isentropic lift. All juxtaposed with cold and moisture for once around here. NO transfer to the Coast; instead, the back wave (our wave) is the stronger one behind what went through the Carolinas today. Kissing jets is the Carolinas jet-let interacting favorably with what's coming out of the Plains. Areas of lift associated with each jetlet/jet stream interact. Kissing jets is the opposite of what often happens here, where they are out of phase and/or sinking motion of the Coastal nixes the lift. Again that's not a concern. It's fairly easy to model both ways, so the kissing jets carries solid confidence. MRX highlights below. National Weather Service Morristown TN 345 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 There is a very high degree of confidence that accumulating snowfall will be seen across the entire forecast area. There is also high confidence that a short period (roughly 2-4 hours) of heavy snowfall rates will be seen. Model plan views show the CWA between two distinct jet structures which will favor strong upward motion. Additionally, cross sections show this deep upward omega along with saturated air extending through the dendritic growth zone and also into regions of negative saturated EPV. All of this supports the idea of high synoptically driven precip rates with the potential for some enhancement via convective processes and resulting 2"/hr snowfall rates. All of this has lead to a broad increase in expected snow accumulations, especially over the central and parts of the southern TN valley, which are locations that should be favorably positioned beneath upper jet structures. That being said, there remains a fair amount of uncertainty in a few areas. Geographically speaking, the southern and far northeastern TN valley are areas of concern. For areas east of I-75 in the southern valley, the question is whether the heavier precip rates will have a long enough residence time over the cold air to result in the higher amounts we`ve put in. Trends have been to support higher amounts so that`s the direction the forecast has gone. In the northeast TN valley, models want to hang on to some warmer temperatures near the surface for a bit longer than other areas, resulting in lower snow amounts relative to areas in the immediate vicinity. This is present in both hires model output as well as courser models like the GFS. Still, the trends have been upward there too. Lastly, going back to the convective element, this could easily lead to some overachieving of storm total snow amounts in places while other locations may be very close or possibly lower than forecast. This is something we simply will not know until we`re in the middle of the event. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GFS dropped a foot on Hamilton County. That would be awesome. Credit my brother, his daughters started spring break today and they left for Orlando at noon. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Updated point forecast. Detailed Forecast Tonight Rain likely before midnight, then snow. Low around 21. Blustery, with a southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north 15 to 20 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values between 4 and 9. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Yeah the GFS is trying to do something mesoscale in southeast Tenn. It could happen somewhere. Thunder would of course promote such totals, but wherever it sets up. Thank your brother's family for us down in Chatty! Though that mesoscale feature is a question, intensity and location, the synoptic setup looks good. Cold, lift and moisture are timed together. We don't have to pray for a trowal on the back side. Instead it'll get cold enough quick enough with the main lift. Last post for the afternoon. Chattanooga members of the board are cautiously optimistic. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 First front is along the Plateau. Thundersleet reported in Pine Bluff Arkansas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 How impressive is this for any time of year, let alone Mid-March. I wouldn't even be shocked if the Winter Storm Warning moves West. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GEFS Mean was also pretty robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Pinebluff quickly transitioned to Thundersnow. Looked like the temp went from 52 to 34 there in about two hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just looked at the GFS. Almost had a stroke. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 It feels amazing for the Valley to finally be in the bullseye of one of these systems. I'm also happy that it seems that Chattanooga will finally cash in on it. They're long overdue for a good snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 My buddy NE of Jackson Tn has sleet at 34. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: Just looked at the GFS. Almost had a stroke. You had me curious, now I am about to have a stroke lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Also Go Big Orange . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I'm going to have to get a nap in soon so I can watch this sucker overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I'm going to have to get a nap in soon so I can watch this sucker overnight. Beer, coffee, rinse and repeat . 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I've got a chaweenie who has never experienced a proper snow, hoping I can toss him in up to his head tomorrow and watch my bigger pit and him play in it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said: I've got a chaweenie who has never experienced a proper snow, hoping I can toss him in up to his head tomorrow and watch my bigger pit and him play in it lol At first I thought you meant a Chattanooga Snow Weenie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: At first I thought you meant a Chattanooga Snow Weenie. I thought the same thing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: At first I thought you meant a Chattanooga Snow Weenie. You said what we all were thinking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, Wurbus said: I'm going to have to get a nap in soon so I can watch this sucker overnight. Just woke up from mine, and about joined the stroke club after looking at the 18z RGEM (it's typically very close for my area). 12" line knocking on my backdoor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Oh lawdy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Oh lawdy I told, ya'll the RGEM looked awesome. Fire up the heart attack gif from Sanford and Son for me ! LOL. Kuchera looks insane! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 There has been a trend this evening in showing a convective feature running along I-75 from Hamilton county up through Knox county. Wherever that sets up is in for quite a show from Mother Nature tonight. It reminds me of the MCV that formed in the February 2014 storm over Birmingham and travelled up the I-59 and I-75 corridors. I got around 4” additional snow (and some thunder) just from that feature during that event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Thundersnow in downtown Little Rock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Just woke up from mine, and about joined the stroke club after looking at the 18z RGEM (it's typically very close for my area). 12" line knocking on my backdoor. I’m hoping it dumps snow here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, McMinnWx said: I’m hoping it dumps snow here. All the ingredients are checked off...enough cant be said how the timing couldn't have been much more perfect (overnight) to max out potential (takes solar aspect out of it). Someone in the southern valley is in for a helluva show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 At this point I’m looking for the fly in the ointment. I can’t help but notice robust convection originating in the gulf around 200 miles due south of the FL/AL border. It is persistent and appears unmoving. I’m wondering what affect it will have on moisture transport later if it doesn’t clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, dwagner88 said: At this point I’m looking for the fly in the ointment. I can’t help but notice robust convection originating in the gulf around 200 miles due south of the FL/AL border. It is persistent and appears unmoving. I’m wondering what affect it will have on moisture transport later if it doesn’t clear. Depends on the orientation between Mobile and Tallahassee...more perpendicular it is, the more it can disrupt transport. Seen the opposite as well if it is orientated NNW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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