dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Wow. 12Z NAM just took Chattanooga from 1” to 7”. Definitely more in line with other modeling. I’m still thinking 2-4” here. Tempering expectations. The mountains could certainly see 7”+. I’m about to go for a run in the 65 degree sunshine. 12 hours from now it should be dumping snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 This feels like Jan 1-2 where it was so warm and the hammer dropped the next day, and it snowed. What is modeled would fit the seasonal pattern of extreme warmth to frigid. This is like living out West during June! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I’m not taking my cup off. . You afraid of getting kicked somewhere? I don't know if you noticed, but on both runs of the 3k there is a little purple streak going up the central valley. Some kind of valley enhancement? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I think MRX goes 4-8” in the valley . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 My forecast now has 2 to 4 overnight and 1 to 2 on Saturday morning. So 3 to 6 overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I think MRX goes 4-8” in the valley . Although justified, I think they will still play conservative. I could see 3-6 “with locally heavier amounts” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR just increased totals in the valley again. This is a weird feeling of having totals increasing almost every model run leading up to a storm rather than the other way around. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Wurbus said: HRRR just increased totals in the valley again. This is a weird feeling of having totals increasing almost every model run leading up to a storm rather than the other way around. When is the last time that happened? Usually it's the ole Lucy with the football situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Wurbus said: HRRR just increased totals in the valley again. This is a weird feeling of having totals increasing almost every model run leading up to a storm rather than the other way around. Don’t have access right now. How much did it go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Wurbus said: HRRR just increased totals in the valley again. This is a weird feeling of having totals increasing almost every model run leading up to a storm rather than the other way around. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: Don’t have access right now. How much did it go up? Knoxville went from 6.6 to 7.3. Looked like a general half inch or so across most of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR for those who want it. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 From MRX’s discussion (which is really good by the way), it sounds like they are going with 3-5” in the valley and 4-6” on the plateau. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: When is the last time that happened? Usually it's the ole Lucy with the football situation. I can't remember. I remember many times where we were sitting pretty 3+ days out and then the rug was pulled out from under us though! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 WSWs have been hoisted for the NE TN. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, Vol4Life said: From MRX’s discussion (which is really good by the way), it sounds like they are going with 3-5” in the valley and 4-6” on the plateau. But yet last I checked only had WWA out for netn and Scott and Lee Va..at this juncture, I'd say that's just bad business. Use some logic and skill instead of buying into an earlier model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: From MRX’s discussion (which is really good by the way), it sounds like they are going with 3-5” in the valley and 4-6” on the plateau. Where do you find these at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowdyVFFL Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 That run of the HRRR cut the Plateau in half and amped up western middle. That's different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, Carvers Gap said: WSWs have been hoisted for the NE TN. About time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Might not have to travel as far as I thought haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, Daniel Boone said: About time ! Check this out! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 TNZ015>017-042-044-046-VAZ001-005-006-008-120600- /O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0009.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ /O.EXB.KMRX.WS.W.0005.220312T0600Z-220312T2200Z/ Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington TN- Northwest Carter-Lee-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City, Elizabethton, Rose Hill, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 353 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Snow and ice covered roadways are possible, mainly across the secondary roadways, bridges and overpasses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow combined with the blustery winds will greatly reduce visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Wurbus said: Where do you find these at? In MRX’s afternoon disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Omg...talk about meteocre forecasting. 3-4" range for a vast, mixed elevation area...why not 3-6" . ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 000 FXUS64 KOHX 112030 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 230 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022 .DISCUSSION... Models have sped up this system for tonight a bit, and the cold front is a few hours ahead of previous forecast. But, snow timing remains roughly the same. Amounts have changed slightly, with more of the east possibly getting into the 2 to 3 inch range if the cold air continues moving in a little faster. Rest of the forecast remained mostly unchanged, with snow starting in the northwest around 6 pm and spreading across the mid state through the evening. Advisory area still looks to get 1 to 3 inches, and the Warning area 3 to 6 inches, with those higher amounts at higher elevations and on the Plateau. Upper trough continues to dig southward and strengthen as it approaches from the west, and the cold front has nosed its way into the northwest part of the mid state already this afternoon. Rain will start in isolated locations this afternoon ahead of the main band but precip chances increase from the northwest late this afternoon, and after a brief period of rain, a rain/snow mix and finally all snow will make a quick transition this evening. Some sleet will be possible mainly south and east of Nashville this evening, but it appears to be very brief as heavy snow bands will quickly cool any remaining warmer layers aloft. Isentropic lift remains strong ahead of the front, bringing plenty of moisture in the low to mid levels. Frontogenesis remains extremely strong also, and will support the very strong omega values that are clearly seen on soundings and cross sections. Cross sections also indicate some areas of weak instability, and combined with strong dynamic support in the mid to upper levels, heavy and potentially convective snow bands will be possible. These bands can easily be capable of bursts of 1 to 3 inches per hour, which is why the surface and near surface cooling a bit earlier has resulted in a little more accumulation in the northwest. The faster moving trough looks to exit sooner, with most of the mid state done with heavy snow before sunrise and lingering snow on the Plateau Saturday morning. Adding to the snow issue will be the strong northwest winds of 10 to 25 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph which could result in some downed power lines/trees when combined with the heavy snow. This still remains a challenging forecast as CAMs are the ones dialing back accumulations a bit, likely due to the increased speed of the system and more accountability for warm surface melting with initial snow compared to larger scale models. Upstream, there are reports of heavy snow, but mainly sticking to grass, cars, etc and leaving roads wet with the initial onset. Depending on how long temps can hold out on the surface, the warm pavement will rob some of the accumulation potential early on especially if snowfall rates are slow, but will still accumulate on cold surfaces. Should convective snow bands develop, or even within heavier snow bands, rapid cooling will result, and can easily start accumulating on area roads. Bridges and overpasses will be the first to start, but it is possible that slower snowfall rates in some areas will result in accumulations only on cold surfaces, and roads stay wet/slushy with slick spots in the western half of the mid state. On the other end, should heavy snow and convective bands last longer and be more frequent across the area, they can put down heavy snow amounts very quickly, and we may wake up with more snow than currently in the forecast. Definitely a challenging scenario with a quick moving, highly dynamic trough with convective snow potential. Models are still quick to bring clear skies on Saturday, but kept clouds in a bit longer. There is still a chance that a stratus deck lingers longer into the day Saturday preventing the sun from clearing the roads. Even though temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s for highs Saturday, the March sun is still very powerful and can even get some melting done with a thin cloud layer. But, clear to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon would be ideal to help clear roads, especially with below freezing temps returning Saturday night and re-freezing any wet areas. Sunday will be much warmer, and likely get more of the snow melting job done with highs in the low to mid 50s. 60s return on Monday. Next chance at rain will be Monday night into Tuesday, but looks like this system will clip the south for the most part and doesnt look like a soaker at this time. Temps will continue to warm during the week and we will be back in the 70s by Wednesday. Another strong trough is possible next Friday into Saturday but this one will be warm enough to avoid any snow. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. A strong cold front has passed through CKV and will shortly move through BNA/MQY shifting winds to the NW. Frontal passage will occur late this afternoon at CSV. Precipitation will move into the terminals this evening which could begin as rain showers but will quickly transition to snow. Snow will reduce vis to IFR and even LIFR during heavy bursts. Snow will move out of CKV around 08z and out of BNA/MQY around 09z. Snow will linger at CSV longer with some light snow showers possibly lingering after 12z. Models are quick to return VFR cigs after the snow pulls out, but with snow on the ground and steep low level lapse rates, MVFR cigs were left in the tafs for the remaining forecast to account for a likely stratocu deck. After frontal passage, winds will be out of the NW/NNW around 10-15 kts with gusts around 25 kts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR for those who want it. That’s right at 10” over my house in N Knox Co. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Showing about 7" at my house near Mghee Tyson. My wife and I live on a steep gravel road, about 1/2 mile long, with somewhat unforgiving asphalt roads around our house We are having our first child Monday morning (via c-section)!!!! You guys think roads would be an issue at all early Monday morning? Looks to be below freezing when we head to the hospital at 4AM. I have plenty of salt and a leaf blower just in case haha I know it's overkill but you can't be to careful 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Showing about 7" at my house near Mghee Tyson. My wife and I live on a steep gravel road, about 1/2 mile long, with somewhat unforgiving asphalt roads around our house We are having our first child Monday morning (via c-section)!!!! You guys think roads would be an issue at all early Monday morning? Looks to be below freezing when we head to the hospital at 4AM. I have plenty of salt and a leaf blower just in case haha I know it's overkill but you can't be to careful Why don’t you go in now and get a hotel near the hospital 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z RGEM looks really good for TRI peeps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Showing about 7" at my house near Mghee Tyson. My wife and I live on a steep gravel road, about 1/2 mile long, with somewhat unforgiving asphalt roads around our house We are having our first child Monday morning (via c-section)!!!! You guys think roads would be an issue at all early Monday morning? Looks to be below freezing when we head to the hospital at 4AM. I have plenty of salt and a leaf blower just in case haha I know it's overkill but you can't be to careful Personally, I think most roads will be okay by Monday. I think a lot will melt on Sunday, as long as the road sees the sun. The gravel driveway could be iffy though. If she happens to go into labor tomorrow though, you could be in some trouble. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Gfs looks good for southern valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now