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March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?


Windspeed
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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:


Well… good point


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6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m really concerned with some of my shrubs for Sunday morning, especially my Jap Maple and Cherry tree. Would 2 or 3 inches of snow on them be enough insulation? Or should I cover them Saturday night, Sunday morning?


.

I would cover especially with overnight temps!

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@AMZ8990, how close are you to that band in west TN that the RGEM is depicting.  That could be a good thump!

Thanks for sharing man.  I’m right in the middle of the heaviest snow axis that stretches through 2-3 counties on that RGeM run,  fingers crossed brother!  Looks like it stretches from south eastern Fayette county into my county which is hardeman county.

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18 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m really concerned with some of my shrubs for Sunday morning, especially my Jap Maple and Cherry tree. Would 2 or 3 inches of snow on them be enough insulation? Or should I cover them Saturday night, Sunday morning?


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Does the Jap maple already have tender young shoots and leaves? If so, man I don’t know. Hopefully the snow will insulate it. I’ve seen cherries in bloom covered with 2in of snow and they were fine but it wasn’t nearly as cold as the projections for Sunday AM. Unfortunately at 10 degrees (and maybe lower depending on snowpack) I don’t know that you will be able to do very much more than the snow will do. If you cover them today with the sun out you will bake them and kill them. If you cover them with a sheet and get a heavy snow on them better have something to prop them up with so the sheet doesn’t get too heavy with the snow and crush them. Then there’s the whole so cold it may freeze inside the”dome” even with the sheets the wind also does as much damage as anything 

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5 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Does the Jap maple already have tender young shoots and leaves? If so, man I don’t know. Hopefully the snow will insulate it. I’ve seen cherries in bloom covered with 2in of snow and they were fine but it wasn’t nearly as cold as the projections for Sunday AM. Unfortunately at 10 degrees (and maybe lower depending on snowpack) I don’t know that you will be able to do very much more than the snow will do. If you cover them today with the sun out you will bake them and kill them. If you cover them with a sheet and get a heavy snow on them better have something to prop them up with so the sheet doesn’t get too heavy with the snow and crush them. Then there’s the whole so cold it may freeze inside the”dome” even with the sheets the wind also does as much damage as anything 

Snow will always insulate it, you’ll be fine.  We aren’t covering greens today for this very reason.  I wouldn’t stress about it 

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43 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

While waiting for the Euro, let's look at the last run. I was looking at the snow depth versus snowfall. I know this is a concern (melting snow, warm ground, etc). If NW Arkansas has spots of 4 inches this thing is a big over performer. 

Below is the snowfall (total snow) versus depth. The depth should be light in AK right now according to the Euro. Like 1 inch max. There is a little more total snow on the snow map (2.5 inches), but it is still not as much as the reports. Curious to see what the 12z shows to compare. Correction incoming? 

ecmwf-deterministic-se-snow_depth-7118800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_kuchera-7140400.png

A little bit of correction in snow totals in AR, but the depth maps show there is less than is actually there!  This is suggesting most of the snow is not having a problem sticking. 

12z holds for most. 

ecmwf-deterministic-se-snow_depth-7086400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_kuchera-7118800.png

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1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m really concerned with some of my shrubs for Sunday morning, especially my Jap Maple and Cherry tree. Would 2 or 3 inches of snow on them be enough insulation? Or should I cover them Saturday night, Sunday morning?


.

They’ll be ok, they’re more resilient then some lead on.  With snow cover you’ll have perfect natural insulation on them 

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2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The nowcast/obs rule now. It overperforming in Arkansas during the day is a good sign. 

Its basically every model vs the NAM right now too it seems. 

Temps barely got to 50 in Collierville this morning while I was at work.  We were forecast to hit 59.  Cold air definitely pouring in quicker than forecasted.  I’m headed home now, I’ll update throughout the day To let y’all know how it looks on the west side of the state 

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3 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Temps barely got to 50 in Collierville this morning while I was at work.  We were forecast to hit 59.  Cold air definitely pouring in quicker than forecasted.  I’m headed home now, I’ll update throughout the day To let y’all know how it looks on the west side of the state 

I'm hoping that you pull off 3-6 inches. Some models have a streak right over your area of heavy stuff the last several days. 

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6 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

KNX is over 6" mean on the SREF now. Chatt around 5" and Nashville dropped to around 3"

Wow, I was looking at Knoxville and that is a GREAT looking SREF plume. Lowest is a  tight cluster around 2.5 inches, which is a great bottom to have. Two over a foot! A small cluster around 10 inches with a majority between 5 and 7. Haven't seen one that good in years. 

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