Wurbus Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Pretty decent for this time of the year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Wow, the LP looked stronger this run. I guess we don't want it to strengthen too much or it could cut on the other side of the mountains, correct? Is there there anything keeping this from happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 "Warm" dome activated over Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Wow, the LP looked stronger this run. I guess we don't want it to strengthen too much or it could cut on the other side of the mountains, correct? Is there there anything keeping this from happening? I'll let the experts chime in about keeping it on the other side of the Apps, but it was 4mb stronger that run. I'm all for stronger as long as it stays in NC though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Ratio'd GFS is huge. Our biggest events happen in November and March. Just more energy to work with when they actually manage to get the cold air. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Now I’m intrigued 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 They really need a better color selection for these maps lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Should have the 18z Euro in range this evening. Wishing I hadn't cancelled that Storm Vista weather subscription for the ultra fast Euro, lol. Thanks for all the updates, I've been out on a hike on the upper Cumberland plateau today. Beautiful calm day, but the cliffs were hanging on to the cold of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 GEFS mean is impressive. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: GEFS mean is impressive. Wow, that's a solid 4+ inches for East TN and an overall statewide hit. This is definitely the most impressive ensemble support I have seen all winter for a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Looks like the 18z Euro is slightly deeper with the southern energy, compared to 12z, out to hour 66. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Precip. type maps take forever on weathermodels for the 6z and 18z runs of the Euro, but here is the 18z Euro qpf: Only out to hour 90, so still some snowfall afterwards: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Well, well, well…wasn’t expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Here is the 18z Euro(left) compared to the 12z Euro(right). Very similar look w/ may a slightly slower and very slightly westward track. The 18z Euro would have likely hammered E TN. Accumulation maps stop right before it swings by and right as it deepens. Notice the 18z Euro is much strong...991 vs 995. Right now we are seeing a ramp up of intensity on modeling. Here is the 18z GEFS(left) compared to the 12z GEFS(right). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z trend might be a slightly northwestward jog. That to me signals that modeling is now settling on a track. Now, we will likely see some wobbles. At this point, it looks like a winter storm(maybe major) is growing increasingly likely for someone in the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z Euro doesn't have energy handoff as the primary appears to originate along the GOM near the Mississippi/Alabama border. That is a near perfect tract for a storm. There is a warm nose prior to the main area of slp forming. Cold is just crashing into the back of this system. This might be a deal where the storm forms and lifts NNE vs ENE. This is a true March storm track if real. I feel a little less optimistic about MBY, but growing confident that this storm could be significant for some in the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is the 18z Euro(left) compared to the 12z Euro(right). Very similar look w/ may a slightly slower and very slightly westward track. The 18z Euro would have likely hammered E TN. Accumulation maps stop right before it swings by and right as it deepens. Notice the 18z Euro is much strong...991 vs 995. Right now we are seeing a ramp up of intensity on modeling. Here is the 18z GEFS(left) compared to the 12z GEFS(right). Carver, is there anything to keep this from going more NW? I've noticed the stronger trend and am kind of worried about an Ohio valley special. A few more ticks west and we could looking at rain. But yeah, it did look like the east was about to get hammered on the 18z and ensemble support is increasing so not really sure at this point. This has the makings of a great storm for the valley if holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Silas Lang said: Carver, is there anything to keep this from going more NW? I've noticed the stronger trend and am kind of worried about an Ohio valley special. A few more ticks west and we could looking at rain. But yeah, it did look like the east was about to get hammered on the 18z and ensemble support is increasing so not really sure at this point. This has the makings of a great storm for the valley if holds. Just looking at the surface pressure map, there is not banana high over the top. What would keep it from coming way NW is that there is a monster cold shot that is acting as a kicker. Some of the storms this winter have trended quickly NW as they were nearly cut-off from the jet. This storm is basically sitting in a parabola that will force it to recurve up the coast. IMHO, it can only come NW only so much. Now, it could come back far enough that we get some energy transfer and E TN is fighting thermal profiles. The Plateau looks like money. With cold crashing into the back of this, quadrants may factor only so much. I am actually equally concerned this could trend south and east of us...it basically did that on the 6z GFS. Once it starts coming back NW, I worry less about an OTS solution. Now, we have to watch the NW jog in E TN. Middle and the Plateau are just about locked in now. Back to the original question, the front is going to kick this thing eastward. Just remember, to get big snows you want to be right on the line where heavy rain turns to heavy snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Carver, is there anything to keep this from going more NW? I've noticed the stronger trend and am kind of worried about an Ohio valley special. A few more ticks west and we could looking at rain. But yeah, it did look like the east was about to get hammered on the 18z and ensemble support is increasing so not really sure at this point. This has the makings of a great storm for the valley if holds. In addition and somewhat repetitive on my part....This storm is riding a strong cold front. It is going to ride that boundary. As is, just turn that sucker loose where the 18z Euro had it along the GOM...and let's see where it goes! LOL. That is a wild look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 For all intents and purposes, this is probably the biggest storm we have tracked this season in terms of potential. I realize, we can't shovel potential - quote me on that. LOL. But a March storm, as John notes, originating in the GOM and just exploding as it races northward is fun to watch. We don't get to track something like this everyday. So, regardless of whether is snows in MBY...super fun to track. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 This looks to have the potential for a classic major March Snowstorm. Looks fairly likely the Plateau will receive a foot or more. Slow this thing down a tad and increase duration and a true to form old fashioned big March snowstorm would result with 1 to 2 feet Totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Climatology very much supports a snowstorm in this time frame. I don't know if it is the equinox that is about to occur, but it is crazy how many significant storms have occurred around this time frame(nationwide and not just regionally). Google March 12th and snow storms - CRAZY. It could just be that winter breaks about this time at this latitude. JB pointed out that this winter, after BIG warm-ups, there have winter storms which occur immediately after. So, that is another point as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: This looks to have the potential for a classic major March Snowstorm. Looks fairly likely the Plateau will receive a foot or more. Slow this thing down a tad and increase duration and a true to form old fashioned big March snowstorm would result with 1 to 2 feet Totals. Yeah, it has the look of a legit storm. I remain wary as I have seen storms slip even which way this winter regarding MBY...but that storm is sitting on pretty much each model now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Just looking at the surface pressure map, there is not banana high over the top. What would keep it from coming way NW is that there is a monster cold shot that is acting as a kicker. Some of the storms this winter have trended quickly NW as they were nearly cut-off from the jet. This storm is basically sitting in a parabola that will force it to recurve up the coast. IMHO, it can only come NW only so much. Now, it could come back far enough that we get some energy transfer and E TN is fighting thermal profiles. The Plateau looks like money. With cold crashing into the back of this, quadrants may factor only so much. I am actually equally concerned this could trend south and east of us...it basically did that on the 6z GFS. Once it starts coming back NW, I worry less about an OTS solution. Now, we have to watch the NW jog in E TN. Middle and the Plateau are just about locked in now. Back to the original question, the front is going to kick this thing eastward. Just remember, to get big snows you want to be right on the line where heavy rain turns to heavy snow. Thanks! Nice to hear we have some factors working in our favor. I guess that snow rain line being close is why we have seen some lollipops in totals near the east on some model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just using the Euro control for 18z to extrapolate (right or wrongly) the operational... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 I see more heartbreak for Chattanooga. Haven’t we suffered enough this winter? At least we didn’t lose any storms to northern Florida this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Lastest 0z NAM looking epic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 RGem is on board. What could possibly go wrong?? In all seriousness, it would be amazing that we leave winter and then score a big one in the most narrow window in mid March and the models reeled it in from a good week out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 0z GFS is rolling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Through 54 looks to me like the pattern is a bit further south. Might that cause more digging and a stronger solution. We will know in about ten minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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