Will (little rock) Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Worth noting that the nam is initializing quite a bit drier than what the current radar shows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Arrgghh. Is that a warm nose trying to start?Where? With a flatter system, a warm layer shouldn’t be a big deal. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2-3 inches over 8 hours is not enough to lay down and overcome ground temps with low rates for ktri. I would love to make a trip to gatlinburg howeverIt’s difficult to say if it will or will not. We rarely see 70 degrees to 25 degrees in 6 hours followed by heavy snow. If this was mostly daytime event I would absolutely agree with you but IMO 25 degrees at night in March is no different than 25 degrees in January but I 100% agree that 25 degrees during the day in March is nothing like 25 degrees during the day in January. I just don’t think we know. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I approve the RGEM's output. Still can't post screenshots but it has almost 10 inches in Knoxville when ratio'd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Wurbus said: I approve the RGEM's output. Still can't post screenshots but it has almost 10 inches in Knoxville when ratio'd. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I approve the RGEM's output. Still can't post screenshots but it has almost 10 inches in Knoxville when ratio'd. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Wow, looking at it more closely, it drops 8 inches in 3 hours from the 18 to 21 hour. Almost 3" an hour rates. That would definitely overcome the ground temps quickly! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: It’s difficult to say if it will or will not. We rarely see 70 degrees to 25 degrees in 6 hours followed by heavy snow. If this was mostly daytime event I would absolutely agree with you but IMO 25 degrees at night in March is no different than 25 degrees in January but I 100% agree that 25 degrees during the day in March is nothing like 25 degrees during the day in January. I just don’t think we know. It really is coming in at the perfect time. The ground has several hours without direct sunlight before the snow starts. The sun is the real killer this time of year. I am curious how fast this all melts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I am glad it has become cloudy in Knoxville every little thing helps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 You would think the closer to the event the models would reach a consensus but alas, same model crap different storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: NAM seems to be showing less precip and looking weaker. 19 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Where? With a flatter system, a warm layer shouldn’t be a big deal. . The 12km NAM. But I think it is just that it looks drier in the southern valley. The snow totals just had that "look" to me. But that was before the caffeine kicked in. I have just been warm nosed to death in Roane county so now I see that boogeyman everywhere! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I am glad it has become cloudy in Knoxville every little thing helps.That wind is cold. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Bigbald said: 2-3 inches over 8 hours is not enough to lay down and overcome ground temps with low rates for ktri. I would love to make a trip to gatlinburg however There's more to it than just the pattern and systems "always" forecasting snowfall lower amounts in the KTRI SWVA Area recently. The Model's ingest previous systems track, intensity, precip/snowfall data from numerous NWS and Coop affiliated Stations. January's pattern with these parameters has left a fingerprint with them. Also, there's data flowing into the System from a local Station in Pennington gap. It is in a terrible location to reflect the area's weather. It also doesn't meet NWS siting location Guidelines as it's TH Sensors are just 10-15 feet from a metal structure. Also, the city employees man it and they are less than caring, so to speak. This is the only official station between Middlesboro and KTRI. There's your reflection on Model's. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GFS absolutely clobbers the southern valley from Chatt to Lenoir City. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Wurbus said: GFS absolutely clobbers the southern valley from Chatt to Lenoir City. The GFS appears to be quite sensitive to the Eastman Chemical snow hole of despair. You can always see Kingsport. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I49 in NW AR is being closed...6z GFS/HRRR seem to have had the best handle there for what it's worth. Nam 3k did very poorly. Understatement of the year for those folks..alot of wrecks reported. Was near 70 yesterday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 12z GEFS ticked up..it underperformed almost as bad as the 3k in NW AR at 6z/0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 If these have already been posted, my apologies. To me, modeling doesn't seem a lot different than yesterday. The problem is that modeling just can't predict all of the chaotic bands of snow which develop. They may be well having trouble with the jet streak. The slightest difference in that feature may be causing the model swings - just a guess/hypothesis to be tested. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Wonder if the system is more robust than what the models are initializing at, could have big ramifications downstream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I'll take this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: 12z GEFS ticked up..it underperformed almost as bad as the 3k in NW AR at 6z/0z Lock that in. That little blue hole over NE TN is my house - no lie. So now, we know that is right. LOL. Man, glad you are posting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Wonder if the system is more robust than what the models are initializing at, could have big ramifications downstream If a system is going to bust high, spring is the time. For five years I lived in JC, seemed like many March snows over-performed. Not saying that will happen, but the proximity to the warm waters of the GOM is good. One other thing I meant to mention in relation to the jet streak being tough to model and that causing variations...I do wonder if when the precip is lower if there is convection along the GOM. That will shut off the spigot in a hurry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I'll take this Man that looks a lot like the Canadian for east of the plateau . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Man that looks a lot like the Canadian for east of the plateau . My "go to" short range model is the RGEM which is basically that one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 @AMZ8990, how close are you to that band in west TN that the RGEM is depicting. That could be a good thump! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Hammering in NW AR...2"-4" reports coming in 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 What was initially modeled for that region AK? Going to be interested to see how this thing develops, especially in the daytime. That sun is intense. Warm outside in the sun, but as soon as cloud cover happens it feels cool enough for a jacket with the wind. Encouraging to see strong totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 @McMinnWxi went by food city as I was coming from work, that was at 10:30, it was already a zoo! Parking lot full lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 While waiting for the Euro, let's look at the last run. I was looking at the snow depth versus snowfall. I know this is a concern (melting snow, warm ground, etc). If NW Arkansas has spots of 4 inches this thing is a big over performer. Below is the snowfall (total snow) versus depth. The depth should be light in AK right now according to the Euro. Like 1 inch max. There is a little more total snow on the snow map (2.5 inches), but it is still not as much as the reports. Curious to see what the 12z shows to compare. Correction incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Man that looks a lot like the Canadian for east of the plateau . All I want for March is a 6 inch plus snowfall, be the one please and Thank You! I need to save on gas anyway 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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