John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 OHX went to a warning for their prior watch areas, 3-6 for the whole block just east of Nashville. Kinda surprised they didn't include Nashville proper in the warning. OHX also noted 40mph winds possible. That's some blizzard like conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Found this digging around - looks somewhat updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Down to 33 degrees here, I'd like to get down to 32 or lower by sunup just to help give the ground as much advance chilling as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 BANG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 06z nam and nam 3k 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 My forecast updated to now 4-6 tonight and 1-2 Saturday and looks like all but maybe Tri-Cities/SWVA area is now under a WSW. Looks like the downslope/snowhole is being considered there and it's a WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, jrips27 said: BANG It's weird to see that portions of NE TN are in a WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Definitely not common to see Chattanooga in a Winter Storm Warning an NE Tn not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 New map! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, John1122 said: Definitely not common to see Chattanooga in a Winter Storm Warning an NE Tn not. Is the WSW criteria different between southeast TN and NE TN? They literally have the same amounts predicted, but one area has a WSW and the other has a WWA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Runman292 said: Is the WSW criteria different between southeast TN and NE TN? They literally have the same amounts predicted, but one area has a WSW and the other has a WWA. No, the criteria is generally always the same in each CWA. It's different in Georgia vs Chattanooga but usually the same for all of MRX's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Point forecast for MBY Quote Tonight Rain showers before 1am, then snow showers. Low around 19. Blustery, with a west wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north 15 to 20 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 25. Wind chill values between 4 and 9. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 So checked the difference on the WWA and WSW for Morristown/Greeneville. Morristown is under a WSW and it says "2-3 inches" while Greeneville is under a WWA for "1-3" inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, John1122 said: No, the criteria is generally always the same in each CWA. It's different in Georgia vs Chattanooga but usually the same for all of MRX's area. Just found this on MRX's website. Th3 critera is actually different based on location. The central and southern valley are in the 3" or greater zone, while the "horseshoe" counties are in the 4" or greater zone. That is the reason why NE TN is under an advisory and not a warning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Just found this on MRX's website. Th3 critera is actually different based on location. The central and southern valley are in the 3" or greater zone, while the "horseshoe" counties are in the 4" or greater zone. That is the reason why NE TN is under an advisory and not a warning. That must have changed recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 This was on the MRX site in 2016. I remembered putting it in the historical winter thread so I could find it easily. Glad you found that new version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 North Alabama has just been added to the WSW: https://www.weather.gov/hun/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 No backing down from the 06z GFS. It's about 2x the MRX snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The 09z RAP is great for the warned areas in Middle and East Tennessee and it also hits all of NE TN and SWVa with 5+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Gfs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Managed to hit 32. Should be able to stay there for a couple hours. Will warm up today, but every little bit of ground cooling can't hurt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 58 minutes ago, zippity said: North Alabama has just been added to the WSW: https://www.weather.gov/hun/ If north alabama gets blasted with a huge snow again and I get nothing I’m gonna be furious. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I am under a winter storm warning and my detailed forcast calls for less than one inch possible throughout the event in West Knoxville. I love how one part of the National Weather Service doesnt know what the other part is doing. I must say if that is all I get It would be on par with what has happened all year here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 @jrips27 I just thought of another possibility for you: https://parks.ky.gov/corbin/parks/resort/cumberland-falls-state-resort-park I rented a cabin there to try and chase a storm in 2019. Storm didn't work out, but it's a pretty place. One of the few places you can see a moonbow on clear nights. The cabins are basically their own little hotel rooms and they have a larger resort hotel that reminds me of Bryce Canyon National Park's. It is only about 15 - 20 minutes off the interstate. The last 10 minutes or so is on a 2 lane state route, so not sure how quickly they will plow it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: If north alabama gets blasted with a huge snow again and I get nothing I’m gonna be furious. Lol May this storm overperform for everyone! I’m amped to see how fast the temps change across the Tennesse Valley as it moves in- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looks like modeling is bumping up totals at TRI. I am assuming that MRX derived those WSWs from the 0z run. About half of the model runs(during the past 3-4 days) are leaving less snow up this way comparatively to other locals. TRI is on the eastern envelope of the storm totals. Those shifted slightly eastward at 6z. They can easily upgrade or downgrade a WWA...so not a bad call on their part. My guess is they will wait for another suite before thinking about changes. Again, good call as modeling seems to be on-again and off-again. Should the models hold to the bigger totals at 12z, I would think there is potential for an upgrade. Interestingly, I don't think the WSW have verified (generally speaking) in NE TN all winter. So, understandably the winter trend this winter likely makes them skittish - it does me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 OMG they took my advice and used geologic processes to describe the system, lol: The strong cold air advection will also crater temperatures into the middle and upper 20s most locations. Thank you MRX! (at least I can hope that's why this person chose the word crater) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 That said....the 6z runs for TRI, some of them have been huge. Nice trends for NE TN at 6z. Let's see if we can actually hold onto those. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just check the NMB, and that looks like what MRX is using. It lags by one model run, meaning it uses the blend from the previous suite which was the 0z one. The 12z blend should be higher. Again, that is the right call. It is easy to adjust should models continue those significant adjustments. Plus, it is a Saturday morning when commutes are low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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