John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: We have had a couple of events this winter advertise accumulations for 100% of the state. None have delivered so far. Is this “the chosen one”? Because of the layout of the state it rarely ever verifies but this looks like the best shot in a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looking upstream, Tulsa fell nearly 30 degrees in a few hours on 25-35mph N winds. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Ratio'd GFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Anyone else notice that glob of pink that starts in Arkansas and travels all the way up to Pennsylvania? Looked like a long track super-cell of snowmaggeden under that thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Another of the hi-res mods. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 There will likely be some enhanced banding that will just flat blast some areas. That's what happened here the 17th and caused about a 10 mile wide sliver in Eastern Scott and Western Campbell to get 12-18 inches. That band got a quick coating down and let everything else lay quickly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Surprisingly, looks like the GEFS mean came done slightly for almost everyone from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 MRX have adjusted their expectations for Knoxville down, pray they don't adjust them further. This afternoon they were calling for 1-2 inches Friday night and an additional 1-2 inches Saturday. As of 11pm we see this: Not even mentioning snow overnight Friday. So we went from 2-4 to 1-3. I'll never bet against them, but what are they seeing that we aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 47 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Any suggestions on a good place to head up to tomorrow night? Might take a trip up from Atlanta. Looking for maximum snowfall obviously A decent sized town not too far off the interstate would be nice. I trust y’all’s knowledge of the terrain and sweet spot. Thanks y’all! Crossville is right off I-40, and on Exit 311 there is a little campground area literally right on the interstate with cabins that's very pretty in the snow. It always snows more there than in town as well it seems. But from Atlanta it will probably send you through backroads to get there unless you take 75 to 40 which is a little longer. But for a straight shot north of Atlanta on I75, John's area looks great as well. Both places will be about 3.5 hours from ATL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Won't let me post pics again, but 03z RAP was pretty robust for KNX and the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I just love the way this looks on the screen! This is the 0z GDPS (Canadian). This is as classic of a track and look for E TN as you can get. It may not pan out this way but it sure is pretty to look at! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Canadian just rocked the plateau. 12"+ in some spots. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: Maybe a little further than you would want to go, Breaks Interstate Park has a lodge, full restaurant, etc. https://www.breakspark.com I live about 15 minutes away from the Breaks Park. I rented a cottage in March of either 2017 or 2018, can't remember the year. I got there pretty late the first night, around 6:30. It was spitting flurries on my way up the mountain. When I pulled up to the cottage, it started coming down hard. The next morning I woke up to one of the most beautiful days I've ever seen. My wife and I were pretty much alone in this cozy cottage in the middle of a thick forest, and the scenery was absolutely breathtaking. There were deer and other little critters running around in the snow, id say at least 3 to 4 inches fell over night. It was something straight out of a wildlife magazine lol. I highly recommend anyone to visit if given the chance. They also have a yurt you can rent. That would be interesting in a winter storm if available lol!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Anybody up for the Euro? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Beauty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 definitely a better run for most of y’all. Hell even gets an inch down my way 10:1 ratio kuchera 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, jrips27 said: definitely a better run for most of y’all. Hell even gets an inch down my way 10:1 ratio kuchera Much appreciated! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Even the UKIE is on-board for a big hitter. It's been pretty dry before that run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Euro beefed up the totals a good inch or two coming more line with the other models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 03z SREF plumes are the same or even up a bit everywhere except Tri-Cities. Biggest is 7.5-9 from the Plateau to SE KY. 6 inch mean in Nashville. 5+ in Knox. 4+ Memphis and Jackson. 4 around Huntsville. 3.75ish at Tri. 3.5ish around Chattanooga. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 0z National Blend of Models (NBM) is up a good bit versus the 18z run. Might see some totals raised overnight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, jrips27 said: 0z National Blend of Models (NBM) is up a good bit versus the 18z run. Might see some totals raised overnight. Looks like I'm around 6-8 inches there. Will see if MRX raises me up from the 2-4 forecast now. Also, based on this, that is Winter Storm Warning criteria from at least Nashville to the mountains and probably Northern Alabama and Northern Georgia, where the criteria is less than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR is kind of all over the place run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 12k NAM backed off on those higher totals on the plateau, but it’s better for the Chattanooga area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 NAMs slightly down again. They are basically in line with the Euro. Beast of a storm on there, down to 991 over Western NC, just less QPF than prior runs. Seems to be moving out a little faster on there. Rather than snowing up to 15-18z, it's cutting off around 12-14z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: NAMs slightly down again. They are basically in line with the Euro. Beast of a storm on there, down to 991 over Western NC, just less QPF than prior runs. Seems to be moving out a little faster on there. Rather than snowing up to 15-18z, it's cutting off around 12-14z. Going back and forth between coming up to your area or trying to get somewhere with some elevation near Gatlinburg. Probably will be a game time decision tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 JKL fires off the first Winter Storm Warnings for their KY/VA border counties. 4-6+ in their warned area. Point forecast now says 4-6 Friday night and 1-2 Saturday just across the border in Whitley Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, jrips27 said: Going back and forth between coming up to your area or trying to get somewhere with some elevation near Gatlinburg. Probably will be a game time decision tomorrow evening. There's a lot more civilization that way. If you can get above 3000-3500 feet over that way, you'll probably see huge totals. 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: There's a lot more civilization that way. If you can get above 3000-3500 feet over that way, you'll probably see huge totals. 12+. For sure - just not sure I can risk getting stuck on a mountain somewhere. Need to be back in Atlanta by Sunday afternoon. I found a place at 3000 feet southwest of Gatlinburg on January 3rd and we got 8 inches. Was a lot of fun. They will probably see that if not more like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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