Mrwolf1972 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Wurbus said: I'm sure they have some "in house" model they can use. They issued winter storm watch Kentucky and plateau haven't seen anything for valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 MRX is going to say 1-3 for the valley with locally heavier amounts and issue a WWA and call it a day. I'd be surprised if they issue anything more than that today. They might even wait and let the night crew issue it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I expect a Winter Storm Watch to be issued for my area, the mountains and SWVa at minimum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wurbus said: MRX is going to say 1-3 for the valley with locally heavier amounts and issue a WWA and call it a day. I'd be surprised if they issue anything more than that today. They might even wait and let the night crew issue it. My thoughts as well. The fact that it is a weekend probably makes it easier to downplay. Not the normal early morning rush to worry about. And it is easier to up totals later than downgrade. Most people I spoken too about it don't believe it will snow anyway. "It's been too warm to snow!" Is what I hear at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I think NAM is going to be juiced. Already a 997 low in central Alabama at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I expect a Winter Storm Watch to be issued for my area, the mountains and SWVa at minimum. Literally rinse and repeat 90% of the time and I can’t blame them. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I think theses a WSW for everyone . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The HRRR was another very good run for most of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . I'm actually shocked! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I'm actually shocked!Just go ahead and cancel it now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I'll take this look all day long. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 This could possibly be one of the best discos I’ve ever read…Main concern for the long term is the looming winter weather event for Friday night into Saturday. As such the discussion will focus primarily on that event. Sunday and beyond is rather uneventful, with mostly dry conditions and possibly some rain on Tue (mainly south of I-40) as a closed upper low slides by us to the south. Now, on to the winter weather event.Friday evening into Friday night a northern stream trough/upper low will shift east from the far northern plains and into the western Great Lakes region, while a southern stream wave moves east from Texas along the I-20 corridor across the deep south. Strong surface high pressure will dive south out of Canada behind the northern stream disturbance, pushing very cold air into the TN valley after midnight Friday night. Meanwhile, the phasing of these two disturbances coupled with the strong thermal gradient across the Ohio and Tennessee river valley will lead to a very strong jet streak developing over the eastern CONUS, stretching from the deep south up through the mid-Atlantic seaboard after midnight Fri night. Models forecast upwards of 160k jet streak to spread north from the deep south through the southern Appalachians and mid-Atlantic seaboard Friday night into Saturday. This will induce strong forcing for ascent, with deep layer upward omega and saturated air extending into and well beyond the dendritic growth zone for several hours. In other words, this is setting the stage for widespread snowfall, with precipitation rates that will likely overcome the warm ground and lead to significant accumulating snow across much of eastern Tennessee. Precipitation begins to move into the region from the southwest during the evening hours tomorrow, but really ramps up in intensity and coverage between 06z and 12z Sat. Expect some areas in the Cumberland plateau to begin seeing at least a rain/snow mix, if not all snow, by 2-3 AM EST Sat morning, with most all of TN valley seeing mostly snow by 5 AM EST or thereabouts. While some of the potential snowfall during this period will be lost to melting or mixed ptypes, I believe the strong CAA (and resulting increase in snow ratios) and rapid cooling of the atmosphere due to dynamic cooling will support a bulk of the QPF falling as snow. Further lending confidence to higher snowfall amounts is that the strong forcing will also be coincident with some negative EPV aloft, which would favor some convectively enhanced snowfall rates. The strongest signal in this regard will be mostly over the northern plateau and further north into our western SW Virginia counties, which is where the higher storm total snowfall amounts are. However, it also extends across the central and northeastern TN valley as well which is why snow amounts have been increased there.It would be a lie to say there's not some uncertainty remaining. Trends have been colder and more snowy over the last 24hrs, but there's also less QPF to work with in most guidance as well. Will that trend continue? Will the air temperatures drop quick enough, and/or precip rates be high enough, to overcome warm ground temperatures? These are questions that we won't know the answer to until Saturday morning. But based on the guidance we have available, it seems a significant late-season winter storm is in the offing.Let's talk about storm total amounts real quick. In general, accumulations of 2" or more should be mostly limited to areas from Bledsoe over to Monroe county and points northward. Areas that get 3" or more snowfall should generally speaking be along or north of the I-40 corridor, and amounts upwards of 4" should be limited to the northern plateau and up into Lee and Wise county in Virginia, and also in the Smokies. While the higher terrain of the southern plateau (e.g. Bledsoe down to Marion county and also Signal Mountain for instance) could see 2-3" as well, southern areas in general should be more in the 1-2" range. For a more user friendly graphical output, be sure to check our webpage and social media accounts.Lastly, have gone ahead and hoisted up a Winter Storm Watch for the entire CWA. A good argument could be made to have held off for the far south. But given the official forecast, issuing a watch seems like the best decision to make and leaving some southern counties out is probably splitting hairs at this point. Will let the upcoming night shift make a determination on what areas to upgrade to a Warning and what areas to upgrade to an Advisory. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 18z NAM looking beastly. This thing is amped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Monster run of the NAM incoming. NE TN will like this one. Well, pretty much the entire forum area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Getting ready to read the disco now, but my jaw dropped when I saw the quintessentially conservative MRX actually issued a WSW for even the valley. I thought it must be one of two things...either the models are amping up OR it is the end of this winter season and if they are wrong, no one will remember by next winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Some of those sleet soundings on the 18z NAM have pretty narrow windows for melting. We will hug MRX: "I believe the strong CAA (and resulting increase insnow ratios) and rapid cooling of the atmosphere due to dynamiccooling will support a bulk of the QPF falling as snow." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Silas Lang said: 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Oh sorry, there was a little more for the far East. Goodness. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Please let the NAM verify Please let the NAM verify Please let the NAM verify Please let the NAM verify Please let the NAM verify Please let the NAM verify 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 . 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3K NAM says @John1122 is gonna feel like he is living in the Sierra Nevadas with 20" of snow! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3km NAM: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 3K NAM says @John1122 is gonna feel like he is living in the Sierra Nevadas with 20" of snow! Lord have mercy: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Monster snowfall rates and 35mph wind gusts...reminds me of something from a famous March event. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 3K NAM says @John1122 is gonna feel like he is living in the Sierra Nevadas with 20" of snow! I'll allow it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 So we are around 36 hours from the event, some decent model consensus, the NAM doing its typical tease, what could go wrong lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Lord have mercy: I am just going to hug the 12k for MBY. Just a 1.7-9.5" range of accumulations on the NAMs for 18z over TRI. LOL. I will gladly take a blend of the 3k and 12k! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 This system is insane. There will be a pretty decent threat for tornadoes farther south in Georgia and Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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