dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: Out of curiosity does anyone remember the last decent snow in March for East TN? I’m having trouble remembering one in recent years. I had two small events in March 2009. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Euro rolling in with the monkey wrench. Strong storm but 1/3rd the precip vs all other modeling. Not sure why it's precip field is so much less than everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z Euro is rollling. Unless I am mistaken, it is an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, John1122 said: Euro rolling in with the monkey wrench. Strong storm but 1/3rd the precip vs all other modeling. Not sure why it's precip field is so much less than everyone else. It sent a slp in front of the main low. Prior, that went off the coast. Good pass, but a new variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Even gets me in on the snow in Boone with a flatter look. I'm not sure how flat this thing will be though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 IDK, that is a pretty good run. Looks similar or better to 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Textbook for eastern forum areas. Yeah man . Hammer time with that ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I just hope this doesn’t follow the trend of the year and goes NW in the 11th hour. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 As @John1122notes, the Euro has a fantastic look. However, it has less snow. It is an improvement over 6z, but is lacking it seems in precip. Nice track and maybe even a little wiggle room... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Looks like the 15z SREF held serve for the east, was slightly beefier for the plateau. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 46 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah man . Hammer time with that ! Starting to see the mountains of NC involved for both the Euro and Canadian runs....meaning we have some wiggle room on those models. edit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Some nice big dogs on the SREF Plumes. Below are some of the mean totals. Nashville- 5.2 Plateau - 5.9 Chatt - 3.5 Knox - 5.1 Tri - 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Starting to see the mountains of NC involved in both the Euro and Canadian runs. That's ideal. I want to be stuck in Boone for 3 - 4 weeks. I will be at the base of Grandfather mountain and want to have to march up to the summit to see any hope of rescue from the HISTORIC snow drifts that approach the swinging bridge. Hopefully the NWS will have to invent a new warning criterium for what I will experience. Ultra Blizzard Warning, colored black like the color my flesh would be after only minutes out of doors unprepared. I want to see the tears of those who dread snow and ice to freeze as the flow down their frostbiten faces. They'll have to rename the month of March "Snow," it will be so historic, so dreadful, so cold, so snowy. Roads will be impassable and antifreeze frozen. Spring Break will be a mere legend, a long forgotten dream in the hearts of children, covered like the daffodils and redbuds in feet of icy cement. I want to read a NWS forecast discussion with words like "isothermal," and phrases like "quasigeostropic forcing out the wazoo," "frontogentic mesoscale banding," and "isentropic upthrust." The lifting mechanisms need to be compared to geologic forces, but playing out in meteorological time scales. Heavy. At. Times. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Plateau looks to be money. John, Shocker, and Co should rack up. I think the Euro is under doing things. NAM might be a bit too juiced. Maybe blend the Euro, RGEM, and GFS and that is probably a good solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 As [mention=499]John1122[/mention]notes, the Euro has a fantastic look. However, it has less snow. It is an improvement over 6z, but is lacking it seems in precip. Nice track and maybe even a little wiggle room... Moving faster?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Moving faster? . It's flatter, the other models take it up into NC. The Euro scoots it eastward even though it's very wound up at 999 and falling fast. Those usually turn NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Moving faster? . Let me check. Seems like generally the 12 suite of global models was a slight tick slower, but now since you ask, I am not sure if the Euro was slower or not. I have looked at so many maps, I can't remember. Did you think it was faster? Overall, tracks(other than the NAM) looked solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's flatter, the other models take it up into NC. The Euro scoots it eastward even though it's very wound up at 999 and falling fast. Those usually turn NE. Yeah, that is right. I remember that now. @PowellVolz, strike my earlier comment. @John1122is correct. That is the main difference. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 This is shaping up to have a very traditional inland runner to Nor'Easter track. The big NE cities are involved at 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Kmrx reasoning with their present Totals projection is warm ground and "fast movement". Ground Temps here are not that warm now as that last inch rainfall fell with temps in the lower mid 40's therefore cooling it quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: That's ideal. I want to be stuck in Boone for 3 - 4 weeks. I will be at the base of Grandfather mountain and want to have to march up to the summit to see any hope of rescue from the HISTORIC snow drifts that approach the swinging bridge. Hopefully the NWS will have to invent a new warning criterium for what I will experience. Ultra Blizzard Warning, colored black like the color my flesh would be after only minutes out of doors unprepared. I want to see the tears of those who dread snow and ice to freeze as the flow down their frostbiten faces. They'll have to rename the month of March "Snow," it will be so historic, so dreadful, so cold, so snowy. Roads will be impassable and antifreeze frozen. Spring Break will be a mere legend, a long forgotten dream in the hearts of children, covered like the daffodils and redbuds in feet of icy cement. I want to read a NWS forecast discussion with words like "isothermal," and phrases like "quasigeostropic forcing out the wazoo," "frontogentic mesoscale banding," and "isentropic upthrust." The lifting mechanisms need to be compared to geologic forces, but playing out in meteorological time scales. Heavy. At. Times. I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Going to be interesting to see what MRX does. They are running out of low end mods to roll with. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Hammer time on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Going to be interesting to see what MRX does. They are running out of low end mods to roll with. . I'm sure they have some "in house" model they can use. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Wurbus said: I'm sure they have some "in house" model they can use. They seem to rely heavily on the NBM. It also tends to be the most conservative model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 They seem to rely heavily on the NBM. It also tends to be the most conservative model.Yesterday it looked good. Has anyone seen it today?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 WSW for the plateau . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Yesterday it looked good. Has anyone seen it today? . Bumped up at 12z. 2-4” region wide. 18z should be better or even much better. I think @TellicoWxsaid that it is derived from the runs 6 hours earlier. So, 18z should be pulled from the 12z suite. And by the way, where is Tellico? Hope all is good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Yesterday it looked good. Has anyone seen it today? . Looks a lot like the Euro cut in half to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Here was 12z National Blend of Models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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