Windspeed Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 We're now within 100 hrs of modeling of a regional/forum wide Winter weather event. Probably a good time to go ahead and fire up a dedicated thread. For those wanting snow accumulations, good luck. This system does look decent on the majority of ops and ensembles right now in its positioning and timing for cold air to be in place. Totals on the other hand are still up in the air. We shall see how the week unfolds. Latest GFS operational... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z GFS is looking good at 90. Clean pass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Boom. Big run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Knoxville is the jackpot that run.....don't see that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Bad service at work unfortunately so the graphics won't load. From the last map I saw this morning it looked like the usual dry slot over the Chattanooga area. With 3--4 days to go anything can happen. We would call it a huge win to get some heavy bursts of snow with a light dusting here.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 No idea if that run is correct as the GFS can over-amp things, but that would likely produce thunder snow with those rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 @tnweathernutmentioned how rapidly it deepens. Take a look at what it does in 18 hours from the time it leaves central Georgia. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Did that drop 6 feet in southern Canada? Is that the same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff H Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 I’m surprised there is no more chatter in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jeff H said: I’m surprised there is no more chatter in here. LOL. Very true. Temps in the 70s have sent the board into hibernation. If future runs hold, it will get hoppin'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff H Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: LOL. Very true. Temps in the 70s have sent the board into hibernation. If future runs hold, it will get hoppin'. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Most ensembles look pretty good at 90. Can't attach a screenshot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Did that drop 6 feet in southern Canada? Is that the same storm? I just switched to the Canada map and it looks like pivotal automatically switches it to cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Hate to be “that” guy, but does anyone have the accumulation map for 12Z GFS? I’m having a hard time getting Tropical Tidbits to load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Hate to be “that” guy, but does anyone have the accumulation map for 12Z GFS? I’m having a hard time getting Tropical Tidbits to loadHere ya go.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Here ya go. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Watching the 12z Euro run...so far very similar to the 0z but slightly SE and maybe a hair quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z run from the Euro is a great look! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z Euro is again a clean pass which is an inland runner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Is there snow maps for the 12z Euro, I can't figure out where to access them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Is there snow maps for the 12z Euro, I can't figure out where to access themPivotal is a great site for that.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Here are Kuchera accumulations and also comparison of surface low placements. Be sure to remember the new run is on the left. The 0z run is on the right. Track is pretty much my only concern at this point. The CMC, GFS, and Euro are very similar w/ varying degrees of intensity. Biggest concern is that this trends too far to the East at this point. Heaviest snow axis at 12z is from the Cumberlands to the Smokies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 So the 12z scoreboard is a Miller A inland runner on all three global models - varying strength and low placement. The CMC likely has some energy handoff while the Euro and GFS are basically clean passes. Strength and slp placement, as always, TBD. I am wary after so many looks like this during the past winter which went poof! Will wait for some continuity for future runs, but for now...track is the key. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 So the 12z scoreboard is a Miller A inland runner on all three global models - varying strength and low placement. The CMC likely has some energy handoff while the Euro and GFS are basically clean passes. Strength and slp placement, as always, TBD. I am wary after so many looks like this during the past winter which went poof! Will wait for some continuity for future runs, but for now...track is the key.I’m trying not to get excited but here we are. . 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Let's hope we are locked in and loaded on Friday models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I’m trying not to get excited but here we are. . I know. LOL. That track(12z GFS/Euro) is the historical gold standard for E TN winter storms. Whether it verifies or not remains to be seen. Nailing down a track this winter for a good storm in E TN has proven to be a tough task! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The good thing is that cold air is in play. It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary. What could go wrong? The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good. The eastern trend has me a bit wary. But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The good thing is that cold air is in play. It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary. What could go wrong? The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good. The eastern trend has me a bit wary. But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more. At some point, do you think we’ll see the NW trend come into play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The good thing is that cold air is in play. It makes sense for a storm to fire on this boundary. What could go wrong? The wave could fire too far to the east and the wave slip by too far to the east to do us any good. The eastern trend has me a bit wary. But...digging back through the Spring/Summer thread....modeling has had this storm for a week or more. Yeah this thing has been pretty locked in for a week already. Kind of nuts. If this lands, it will be the biggest snow for the East this season. Here are MRX's thoughts: Big changes are in store for the late week and weekend as the upper pattern begins to quickly amplify in response to a northern stream shortwave from Alberta that digs south into the plains and phases with a southern stream disturbance along the four-corners. The resulting trough digs into the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS while strong surface high pressure moves into the plains and strengthens a thermal gradient from the western Gulf and across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. Increasing upper level ascent from a dual jet structure accompanying strong advection of moisture poleward will support a quick increase in precipitation Friday evening/night and continuing into Saturday. A surface low will develop along the baroclinic zone Friday night and move into the Southern Appalachians on Saturday with increasing moisture wrapping around this circulation. At the same time, an anomalous airmass will move into the area as 850mb temperatures crash into the -10 to -15 C range. A quick transition from rain to snow will likely occur late Friday night and into Saturday. There is still a notable amount of uncertainty regarding the actual track of this system, the arrival of the cold air and just how much left over moisture will be available. What is more certain is that temperatures will be well below normal Saturday and Saturday night. Highs on Saturday will struggle to get much above freezing with expected cloud cover along with cold air advection. NBM suggests highs in the lower to mid 30`s across most locations which is already several degree cooler than NBM guidance 24 hours ago. Saturday nights lows will likely crash into the teens to lower 20`s which is 15-20 degrees below normal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Looks like they are pretty confident in the cold air. 850 temps look to be pretty cold as well. Anyone know of what kind of ratios we would be looking at? Pretty clear the back end could have some higher ratio snows. The Kutchera maps at least confirm that it will be averaging higher than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now