WinterWolf Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The extremely low dews are the sign that the airmass is pretty cold from a wetbulb perspective. Pretty classic for March actually. This is more what I meant…I Was in the shade and it felt dry and chilly. So this describes it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The RGEM looked a touch colder than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Here's what were thinking right now. May issue an update later tonight. 2-5 for most of the state away from the shore and up a few hundred feet. Concern is a bust in either direction, a situation like the NAMs are depicting would have it snowing right down to the coast and with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s and moderate to heavy snow they could easily pick up several inches quickly. Right now thats the coldest side of guidance though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I feel the nape being warm, but that's me. It's very dry out though. Come on feel the cold Fella isn’t old Wolf gets wild wild wild Wild wild wild 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Gfs is paltry still. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs is paltry still. yes, very. on the lowest side of guidance for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Temps are boarder line along the coast but the dew point is rather low around 25 at the onset. Wet bulb for the assist? This is according to HRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 hours ago, FXWX said: Given the widespread hilly terrain induced snowfall differences across much of CT, including portions of Fairfield and New Haven counties, road conditions can vary tremendously across one town... Just another item in the mix that school districts try to determine the best course of action. I remember storms where you could literally have a normal school day on the south side of Wolcott, but it was a no go across the north side of town near the Bristol border. Unfortunately, there they don't cancel schools for just a certain number of streets. Tomorrow comes down to snowfall rates and whether or not DPW crews can keep roads mainly wet or a bit slushy if rates stay under 1" per hour. The answer should be yes, but if an area gets into solid banding for 2 or 3 hours then all bets are off... Newtown/Danbury/Ridgefield area is one great example of this. Learned that real quick at school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Seems odd the GFS isn't a bit more robust. That's a pretty nice jet streak up to our north which should promote favorable large-scale lift. Should be further enhanced too with the llvl N-S temp gradient. Looks like GFS may be a tad stingier with some drier air aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 39/19 here, so cold and dry but snowing during the day might be a problem with it sticking to pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 18z NAM comes in with some pretty good fronto. Just hopefully we'll be able to generate much of this lift into the DGZ to really maximize the snow growth and the snowfall rates. Poking through some Connecticut soundings it might be a little tough to fully maximize this but there's still some pretty good lift getting into the DGZ at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Euro cut back some from its really bullish 12z solution. More toward the middle of the model consensus now. I think most of those 2-4” lolli 5” forecasts are good. Someone might get smoked with a 6 spot if they can get into a band but I wouldn’t actually forecast that for a specific spot. But someone with a bit of elevation and north could do it since there’s a strong crosshair sig up there. Maybe someone in the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro cut back some from its really bullish 12z solution. More toward the middle of the model consensus now. I think most of those 2-4” lolli 5” forecasts are good. Someone might get smoked with a 6 spot if they can get into a band but I wouldn’t actually forecast that for a specific spot. But someone with a bit of elevation and north could do it since there’s a strong crosshair sig up there. Maybe someone in the Berkshires. Berkshires would be a good bet. That's probably where snow ratios ~10:1 are most likely. Even down this way in any heavier banding...10:1 ratios may be a bit tough to come by. I'm hedging 8:1...maybe 9:1 in any heavier banding and then less outside of it. However, if the 18z NAM is onto something that will be very wrong. 10:1 ratios would be pretty common I would think with maybe 12:1 to 13:1 in the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro cut back some from its really bullish 12z solution. More toward the middle of the model consensus now. I think most of those 2-4” lolli 5” forecasts are good. Someone might get smoked with a 6 spot if they can get into a band but I wouldn’t actually forecast that for a specific spot. But someone with a bit of elevation and north could do it since there’s a strong crosshair sig up there. Maybe someone in the Berkshires. Yea, significant snows relegated to Berskires....we sping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, significant snows relegated to Berskires....we sping. Wrong storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1-3 here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 18 Z Euro very interesting with that development of a deep low way south on the front. Will be interesting to see 18 Z EPS This looks to me like a CT Jack . Hills NW or NE.. . Will be one last enjoyable snowy day and then I’ll move on to the worst season known to man . Spring in New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This looks to me like a CT Jack . Hills NW or NE.. . Will be one last enjoyable snowy day and then I’ll move on to the worst season known to man . Spring in New England I posted in the wrong thread. That was in reference to Sat storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Looks like the NAM cut back a decent bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like the NAM cut back a decent bit. Especially across nrn CT... Also not nearly as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Nice RT 2 fronto band in Mass. BDL went from 0.46" to 0.16" QPF but there was very little change in N.MA and extreme SVT/SNH near the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 NAM was hittin the sauce at 18Z, it got a shot of narcan and a bucket of water to the face at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Definitely seems to be some model jumpiness with this one. The NAM has some strong fronto moving in during the aftn and the soundings are a little unstable near the top of the saturated layer so it may have some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: This looks to me like a CT Jack . Hills NW or NE.. . Will be one last enjoyable snowy day and then I’ll move on to the worst season known to man . Spring in New England Agreed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely seems to be some model jumpiness with this one. The NAM has some strong fronto moving in during the aftn and the soundings are a little unstable near the top of the saturated layer so it may have some surprises. Honestly this season…when hasn’t there been model jumpiness? That to me has been one of the big themes this season on every single winter event. Nothing ever seems to hold any one basic scenario as we close in? It’s colder, then it’s warmer, then it’s drier, then it’s wetter…etc etc… jumping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This looks to me like a CT Jack . Hills NW or NE.. . Will be one last enjoyable snowy day and then I’ll move on to the worst season known to man . Spring in New England Or Summer for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 hours ago, weatherwiz said: 18z NAM comes in with some pretty good fronto. Just hopefully we'll be able to generate much of this lift into the DGZ to really maximize the snow growth and the snowfall rates. Poking through some Connecticut soundings it might be a little tough to fully maximize this but there's still some pretty good lift getting into the DGZ at times. It's a bit under the SGZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 to 4 here tomorrow? havent been tracking this one much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 06z runs are coming in pretty zonked so far after 00z was a bit tame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z runs are coming in pretty zonked so far after 00z was a bit tame. 6z NAM was awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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