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March 9: Little Critter that could part 2.


Sey-Mour Snow
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Here's what were thinking right now. May issue an update later tonight. 2-5 for most of the state away from the shore and up a few hundred feet. Concern is a bust in either direction, a situation like the NAMs are depicting would have it snowing right down to the coast and with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s and moderate to heavy snow they could easily pick up several inches quickly. Right now thats the coldest side of guidance though.

03_08.22_jdj_snowfall_forecast.thumb.jpg.23f9fd091503c736caeee17039d46a17.jpg

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  On 3/8/2022 at 8:02 PM, FXWX said:

Given the widespread hilly terrain induced snowfall differences across much of CT, including portions of Fairfield and New Haven counties, road conditions can vary tremendously across one town...  Just another item in the mix that school districts try to determine the best course of action.  I remember storms where you could literally have a normal school day on the south side of Wolcott, but it was a no go across the north side of town near the Bristol border.  Unfortunately, there they don't cancel schools for just a certain number of streets.   Tomorrow comes down to snowfall rates and whether or not DPW crews can keep roads mainly wet or a bit slushy if rates stay under 1" per hour.   The answer should be yes, but if an area gets into solid banding for 2 or 3 hours then all bets are off...

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Newtown/Danbury/Ridgefield area is one great example of this. Learned that real quick at school :lol: 

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18z NAM comes in with some pretty good fronto. Just hopefully we'll be able to generate much of this lift into the DGZ to really maximize the snow growth and the snowfall rates. Poking through some Connecticut soundings it might be a little tough to fully maximize this but there's still some pretty good lift getting into the DGZ at times.

image.thumb.png.e813c70e4b99f9e8495301affdc20e96.png

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Euro cut back some from its really bullish 12z solution. More toward the middle of the model consensus now. I think most of those 2-4” lolli 5” forecasts are good. 
 

Someone might get smoked with a 6 spot if they can get into a band but I wouldn’t actually forecast that for a specific spot. But someone with a bit of elevation and north could do it since there’s a strong crosshair sig up there. Maybe someone in the Berkshires. 
 

 

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  On 3/9/2022 at 12:05 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro cut back some from its really bullish 12z solution. More toward the middle of the model consensus now. I think most of those 2-4” lolli 5” forecasts are good. 
 

Someone might get smoked with a 6 spot if they can get into a band but I wouldn’t actually forecast that for a specific spot. But someone with a bit of elevation and north could do it since there’s a strong crosshair sig up there. Maybe someone in the Berkshires. 
 

 

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Berkshires would be a good bet. That's probably where snow ratios ~10:1 are most likely. Even down this way in any heavier banding...10:1 ratios may be a bit tough to come by. I'm hedging 8:1...maybe 9:1 in any heavier banding and then less outside of it. However, if the 18z NAM is onto something that will be very wrong. 10:1 ratios would be pretty common I would think with maybe 12:1 to 13:1 in the Berks

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  On 3/9/2022 at 12:05 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro cut back some from its really bullish 12z solution. More toward the middle of the model consensus now. I think most of those 2-4” lolli 5” forecasts are good. 
 

Someone might get smoked with a 6 spot if they can get into a band but I wouldn’t actually forecast that for a specific spot. But someone with a bit of elevation and north could do it since there’s a strong crosshair sig up there. Maybe someone in the Berkshires. 
 

 

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Yea, significant snows relegated to Berskires....we sping.

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  On 3/9/2022 at 12:54 AM, Ginx snewx said:

18 Z Euro very interesting with that development of a deep low way south on the front. Will be interesting to see 18 Z EPS

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This looks to me like a CT Jack . Hills NW or NE.. . Will be one last enjoyable snowy day and then I’ll move on to the worst season known to man . Spring in New England 

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  On 3/9/2022 at 2:51 AM, CoastalWx said:

Definitely seems to be some model jumpiness with this one. The NAM has some strong fronto moving in during the aftn and the soundings are a little unstable near the top of the saturated layer so it may have some surprises.

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Honestly this season…when hasn’t there been model jumpiness?  That to me has been one of the big themes this season on every single winter event.  
 

Nothing ever seems to hold any one basic scenario as we close in? It’s colder, then it’s warmer, then it’s drier, then it’s wetter…etc etc… jumping all over the place. 

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  On 3/8/2022 at 10:39 PM, weatherwiz said:

18z NAM comes in with some pretty good fronto. Just hopefully we'll be able to generate much of this lift into the DGZ to really maximize the snow growth and the snowfall rates. Poking through some Connecticut soundings it might be a little tough to fully maximize this but there's still some pretty good lift getting into the DGZ at times.

image.thumb.png.e813c70e4b99f9e8495301affdc20e96.png

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It's a bit under the SGZ

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