March 9 Rain/Snow Event (Possibility of a few inches of wet snow for much of the subforum, most likely north and west of NYC)

[RU848789]

EE rule anyone?  That's a lot of snow from pretty good models to completely ignore, although snow depth is less for each (as is Kuchera, given likely above 32F temps somewhere in the column, at least near/along 95).  At the very least would be nice to get a few inches on the grass and have some snow during daylight hours to watch.  

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

EE rule anyone?  That's a lot of snow from pretty good models to completely ignore, although snow depth is less for each (as is Kuchera, given likely above 32F temps somewhere in the column, at least near/along 95).  At the very least would be nice to get a few inches on the grass and have some snow during daylight hours to watch.  

 

Exactly. I could see a few inches on grass and trees which will definitely give a winter vibe. This is outside the urban heat island. I could see midtown never accumulating. There could also be some surprises if banding gets going. March storms are notorious for producing heavy precip rates 

[ForestHillWx]

I honestly think our highest snow total this year was 4.5”; so the bar is low out this way. 

[mikeysed]

3 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

I honestly think our highest snow total this year was 4.5”; so the bar is low out this way. 

Basking Ridge reported 7" during the one storm, doubt you were that much lower if at all.

[HVSnowLover]

Interesting model discrepancy with this less than 24 hours out. I'd say forecast based on climo with this one, white rain or mix in NYC and points South, 1-3 slushy inches NW of the city and maybe colder parts of LI. 

[ForestHillWx]

7 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Basking Ridge reported 7" during the one storm, doubt you were that much lower if at all.

Which one was that? I remember using the quad to plow on 2 occasions. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

EE rule anyone?  That's a lot of snow from pretty good models to completely ignore, although snow depth is less for each (as is Kuchera, given likely above 32F temps somewhere in the column, at least near/along 95).  At the very least would be nice to get a few inches on the grass and have some snow during daylight hours to watch.  

 

Using 10:1 ratio maps and Kuchera maps is a very bad idea with this one the ratios are going to be very low

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Using 10:1 ratio maps and Kuchera maps is a very bad idea with this one the ratios are going to be very low

I agree with you on this storm and the ratios. Above freezing in daytime in March and precip not heavy. 

[SnowGoose69]

10am-noon is the window to watch...could see mod snow in that time and where you probably get a quick 2 inches at the coast but it would then probably flip back to slop soon after 

[mikeysed]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Which one was that? I remember using the quad to plow on 2 occasions. 

End of January - the storm that LI and Boston got 24"+ Ridge and Warren registered 7" on the text product from Mt Holly. Skywarn spotter and Public.

[jm1220]

I-84 down to around White Plains/the CT coast/down to I-80 in NJ might be good spots for this. Models today are zooming in on that area for a heavy snow band for a while tomorrow. South of that there could be a subsidence area. Where the rates aren't heavy I doubt there's much accumulation. We'll have to see where this banding sets up.

[hudsonvalley21]

18z NAM coming with more north of the city vs the 12z run.

 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

18z NAM coming with more north of the city vs the 12z run.

 

Yep, models are trending that way. Not a surprise. Almost like clockwork last second north bump.

[snowman19]

29 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

18z NAM coming with more north of the city vs the 12z run.

 

Those snow maps are way overdone. You aren’t seeing those totals tomorrow with that setup

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those snow maps are way overdone. You aren’t seeing those totals tomorrow with that setup

3-4 inches on the grass is likely in the heaviest precip area north of the metro.  If this were a night time storm it would be double that....

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those snow maps are way overdone. You aren’t seeing those totals tomorrow with that setup

Yes you can especially on colder surfaces

[sussexcountyobs]

Winter weather advisory up for my area.

[hudsonvalley21]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Those snow maps are way overdone. You aren’t seeing those totals tomorrow with that setup

Agree, I doubt that we will see 10:1 ratios. Just showing that it appears that the QPF has bumped north.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree, I doubt that we will see 10:1 ratios. Just showing that it appears that the QPF has bumped north.

NWS Upton just updated minutes ago….1-3 inches total for Rockland, advisories issued only for Orange County and western Passaic County, nothing for Rockland, Bergen, Westchester or NYC/LI

[donsutherland1]

NWS snowfall forecast:

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NWS snowfall forecast:

Probably reasonable. The real questions will be how much we lose to rain/white rain, and how heavy the snow can come down to where it accumulates. This likely isn't one to be on the south shore or the city for. Wouldn't surprise me if Central Park ends with a T despite hours of snow falling. For where I am hopefully we can luck our way to 2" and get me over 30" for the winter. The best odds for a nice event are along I-84 down to the Tappan Zee, S CT and N NJ with some elevation.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I can go for one more snow before a chilly and rainy spring. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

NWS Upton just updated minutes ago….1-3 inches total for Rockland, advisories issued only for Orange County and western Passaic County, nothing for Rockland, Bergen, Westchester or NYC/LI

Elevation will be key for real accumulations. Places over 1,000’ will do well.

this is the perfect setup to take observations on top of the Nordstrom tower at 1550’ there will be several inches on that roof. Meanwhile it’s changes to white rain outside the windows of some vacant billionaires apartment around 500’

[HVSnowLover]

I think a factor would be how fast precip comes in, if you look at the last two runs of the HRRRR precip starting at 6 am vs 9 am makes a pretty big difference at this time of year. 

[MJO812]

Named

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Named

Yep but I think most of us agree that NAM is very likely overdone. Can't completely rule out the possibility of a 4 to 6 inch snowfall like 0z NAM is showing, but the chance of that happening is very slim. 0z HRRR looks much more reasonable. I would go with a coating to 2 inches on colder surfaces for most of the area, with some 3 to 4 inch amounts in northern NJ. Which is pretty much what 0z HRRR Kuchera is showing. Of course the Kuchera maps need to be used in this case because they take into account the fact that snow ratios will be much worse than 10:1.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep but I think most of us agree that NAM is very likely overdone. Can't completely rule out the possibility of a 4 to 6 inch snowfall like 0z NAM is showing, but the chance of that happening is very slim. 0z HRRR looks much more reasonable. I would go with a coating to 2 inches on colder surfaces for most of the area, with some 3 to 4 inch amounts in northern NJ. Which is pretty much what 0z HRRR Kuchera is showing. Of course the Kuchera maps need to be used in this case because they take into account the fact that snow ratios will be much worse than 10:1.

Yep a few inches possible on colder surfaces. It's March so it's not like it's April with the sun angle .

[MJO812]

 

[Tatamy]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Named

Mt. Holly is going for 1/2” to 1” under where the FG band is progged to set up in their CWA.  Even at 5:1 there is a good  chance this busts higher (2-3”).  The 0z RAP has 4-5” at 5:1 in a part of Bucks Cty.  Tomorrow morning looks to be quite interesting if this FG does set up.

[HVSnowLover]

Very much a needle threader as we need it to come north enough to get the heavy band allow dynamic cooling and precip rates for accumulating snow but stay south enough to keep the warm air aloft to the south and not flip to rain.