March 9 Rain/Snow Event (Possibility of a few inches of wet snow for much of the subforum, most likely north and west of NYC)

[HVSnowLover]

Think its time for a thread for this. 

[HVSnowLover]

Thought Nam overdone and it is but RGEM not bad for the city

 

[HVSnowLover]

OZ GFS says no

 

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

OZ GFS says no

 

GFS is broken up/disorganized with the precip while the NAM has a heavy snow axis for 6hrs or so along I-78 and into NYC/LI. The precip rate will matter too. If it's light broken up crud, it might just be rain or white rain. We need the heavy rates too.

[LibertyBell]

No one posted the EURO or UKMet for that matter

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No one posted the EURO or UKMet for that matter

I don’t think many people are interested in a slushy car and grass topper. If we do manage to score some rates above 1/2 mile there could be some pavement accumulation but that’s a now cast situation

[jm1220]

Upton still not biting whatsoever. Has it as a rain snow mix for most, under 1" near the coast and 1-2" north of the city. I'm thinking that's about what it'll be unless it comes in as a heavy wall. If it's scattered/light to moderate it'll struggle to accumulate anywhere and might mix with rain. 

[jconsor]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Upton still not biting whatsoever. Has it as a rain snow mix for most, under 1" near the coast and 1-2" north of the city. I'm thinking that's about what it'll be unless it comes in as a heavy wall. If it's scattered/light to moderate it'll struggle to accumulate anywhere and might mix with rain. 

I understand Upton's reasoning (see their discussion here), that mixing with rain as well as sun angle/relatively warm surface temps will hold down accumulation.  However, IMHO given that there is a fair amount of model guidance indicating moderate to heavy snowfall rates holding down sfc temps and allowing for heavier accumulation, it is irresponsible not to account for this potential in their high-end (90th percentile) snowfall forecast.

[gravitylover]

Well, 1" would get me to 40% of average 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Upton still not biting whatsoever. Has it as a rain snow mix for most, under 1" near the coast and 1-2" north of the city. I'm thinking that's about what it'll be unless it comes in as a heavy wall. If it's scattered/light to moderate it'll struggle to accumulate anywhere and might mix with rain. 

I'm thinking the high end possibility here is it could be like what we had in February, that one only stuck to grass and car tops too and yet we got 3"

 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm thinking the high end possibility here is it could be like what we had in February, that one only stuck to grass and car tops too and yet we got 3"

 

It’ll be tough for this to be much of anything in the city, there I agree. But colder spots on LI and even most places outside the very densely populated/urban heat island might have a nice event if the more aggressive models are right. If it’s something weak like the GFS though Upton will be right. Even in April when the Sun angle is significantly worse we’ve seen snow accumulate well during the day if heavy enough. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be tough for this to be much of anything in the city, there I agree. But colder spots on LI and even most places outside the very densely populated/urban heat island might have a nice event if the more aggressive models are right. If it’s something weak like the GFS though Upton will be right. Even in April when the Sun angle is significantly worse we’ve seen snow accumulate well during the day if heavy enough. 

Hard to believe Upton would side with the GFS-it's a an outlier at this point and the model is terrible overall

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

No one posted the EURO or UKMet for that matter

Euro is a north of NYC special

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is a north of NYC special

It's 2-4" that will melt the next day

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's 2-4" that will melt the next day

Works for me.  

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is a north of NYC special

It’s probably GFS like with it being weak/scattered crap so it stays too warm. 

[MJO812]

Nam

[gpsnavigator]

Watch for some evap cooling as the system moves in?  A degree or two here and there will affect areas of accumulations (grass vs. pavement), especially NW.

TWC hourly shows this starting right at the morning rush.  Hmmmm.

[SnoSki14]

I think if the timing were better we would've seen a widespread 2-4" with 3-6" local spots. 

Right now it's dependent on elevation & banding. Nam is the best case scenario.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Nam 3Km going with a pasting followed by lighter snow possibly a mix. I'm with that idea, in the 2-5" range primarily on grassy surfaces but not exclusively on grassy surfaces.

WX/PT

[HVSnowLover]

Starting to look like a disorganized mess and all the models other than NAM are basically keeping any accumulations to north of the city which as others have said will be the case unless precip is heavy.   

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Starting to look like a disorganized mess and all the models other than NAM are basically keeping any accumulations to north of the city which as others have said will be the case unless precip is heavy.   

Timing is poor and high temps are forecast to be in mid 30's even up here so it would have to come down hard to accumulate in NYC metro and LI. Only expecting 1-2 IMBY. 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Timing is poor and high temps are forecast to be in mid 30's even up here so it would have to come down hard to accumulate in NYC metro and LI. Only expecting 1-2 IMBY. 

March snow outside of big storms with cold airmass in place  is hard to appreciate because if it snows at night its gone by the next day and if it snows during the day it doesn't stick.   

[jm1220]

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Starting to look like a disorganized mess and all the models other than NAM are basically keeping any accumulations to north of the city which as others have said will be the case unless precip is heavy.   

It's really NAM or bust for anything decent near the city. RGEM wasn't too bad but even the 3k NAM backed off the amounts pretty big since 6z. 

[LoboLeader1]

 

[SnowGoose69]

The SPC HREF has a mean of around 3 with spotty areas of 4 NE NJ/SW CT/Westchester with a max potential of 7-8.  Its constantly been too high all winter though in marginal temp situations but it does indicate a potential for widespread amounts of 2 or so.

 

 

[snowman19]

 

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Timing is poor and high temps are forecast to be in mid 30's even up here so it would have to come down hard to accumulate in NYC metro and LI. Only expecting 1-2 IMBY. 

For once we agree. Lol at the 10:1 ratio maps flying on twitter, that’s a total joke, not happening. Ratios are going to be poor/low, very marginal temps, daytime, 2nd week of March, lack of heavy rates, take the under. This is white rain for the vast majority of the NYC metro area 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

For once we agree. Lol at the 10:1 ratio maps flying on twitter, that’s a total joke, not happening. Ratios are going to be poor/low, very marginal temps, daytime, 2nd week of March, lack of heavy rates, take the under. This is white rain for the vast majority of the NYC metro area 

That it is.   Had it started at 3pm, we'd have some good accums in non urban areas.   Even here would think 1-2 and mainly on grass/roofs/cars.

[Shades]

Snow is snow, not white rain. Nothing accumulates = still snow, not white rain. There's been instances of white rain on the west coast associated with dust/volcanic ash.

The only white rain I've observed is a brand of shampoo. As weather observers, forecasters, why are we invalidating precipitation type just because it's March, just because it's marginal temperatures and just because it doesn't accumulate.

It will be snowing tomorrow, not white raining. SMH 

[BxSnowWx37]

While we await a couple of inches snow with this one,the next storm creeps east every run. Nyc might see heavy rain to heavy snow for a period with the way things are looking. Still some time to keep adjusting east.