BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Overall for the region, ahead of the cold frontal passage Friday evening, temperatures will warm up into the upper 30s and low 40s, which will cause initial precipitation to start off as rain. Then as the front sweeps overhead Friday night into Saturday, temperatures will cool, causing rain to switch over to snow, with a couple of inches of snowfall accumulations expected region wide Friday night. While the surface low originating from the Gulf of Mexico looks to stay far to the south and east of the region, and mainly looks to be a snow event for far eastern NY and VT, the eastern portions of the region (eastern Genesee Valley to the North Country) could see some additional accumulating snows. Then Saturday afternoon, wrap around moisture and well defined CAA will support lake enhanced snows east- southeast of both lakes, before becoming purely lake effect by Saturday night. Additionally, as the surface low pulls away from the region, winds will become gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 GFS op has got a good handle on this. Hope the operational is better than the GEFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Overall for the region, ahead of the cold frontal passage Friday evening, temperatures will warm up into the upper 30s and low 40s, which will cause initial precipitation to start off as rain. Then as the front sweeps overhead Friday night into Saturday, temperatures will cool, causing rain to switch over to snow, with a couple of inches of snowfall accumulations expected region wide Friday night. While the surface low originating from the Gulf of Mexico looks to stay far to the south and east of the region, and mainly looks to be a snow event for far eastern NY and VT, the eastern portions of the region (eastern Genesee Valley to the North Country) could see some additional accumulating snows. Then Saturday afternoon, wrap around moisture and well defined CAA will support lake enhanced snows east- southeast of both lakes, before becoming purely lake effect by Saturday night. Additionally, as the surface low pulls away from the region, winds will become gusty. WTF is this? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 NAM RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 I’ve never read a more dismissive disco ever. NWS has spoken and there is no storm. I’m dumbfounded. I guess they went with the ICON. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 I’ve been singing their praises all winter but man…I think they are wrong here. I think this has big potential. It’s gonna be fast and furious. Easily a warning event- maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 NWS: "low far to the SE, big snows only for ENY and VT" NAM/RGEM: low over Scranton, rain for ENY and VT Well, somebody is going to look awfully silly here. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ve never read a more dismissive disco ever. NWS has spoken and there is no storm. I’m dumbfounded. I guess they went with the ICON. Exactly, so strange. I hope they get burnt. No offense BUF! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM RGEM Surprisingly similar so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Surprisingly similar so far out. IF we’ve learned anything at all this winter…trust the NAM. It has been right at the end of the day with the NW and north shifts better than any model. That’s the one I’m interested in most only 60 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Exactly, so strange. I hope they get burnt. No offense BUF! Lol Its a really bad discussion especially as their viewing area goes all the way to the tug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 49 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 6z GEFS look pretty anemic That's weird, PW looks great lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 So does COD It's that "dynamical ratio" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 12z nam 10:1 not including today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: So does COD It's that "dynamical ratio" lol The individuals looked so-so to me. But you’re right. This looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Pretty good look. We need a tick west though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The individuals looked so-so to me. But you’re right. This looks good. It's because those individuals are using some sort of ratio method.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pretty good look. We need a tick west though. No, you don’t! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: No, you don’t! You can spare a few miles. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pretty good look. We need a tick west though. "It's all about the phase, about the phase, about the phase..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Hope we get something close to this 6z madness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 We need those western leaners to verify and we'll be good lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You can spare a few miles. Lol There’s plenty for everyone, CNY can jackpot for once this winter. Your winter has been pretty good. I haven’t had a double digit daily snowfall this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Sweet track on the rgem.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Sweet track on the rgem.. That’s a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankees102110 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Sweet track on the rgem.. Yuck that’s gross. I’m one of the few hoping for the more eastern track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Someone different must be writing the HWO: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The potential exists for widespread accumulating snow Friday night through Saturday night. Several inches of snow will be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just now, vortmax said: Someone different must be writing the HWO: .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The potential exists for widespread accumulating snow Friday night through Saturday night. Several inches of snow will be possible. It’s old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: It’s old Says 4am this morning. Same wording from yesterday or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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