rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: There you go. That's what I was talking about earlier. As you can tell, I am more positive about this event than most of the other ones this season. It's a different track than what we've seen. My entire school community was on a high from the record warm day today. I ruined it when I kept sharing that snow was possible several times this week. Muwahahahaha.....everyone here knows me as the "crazy guy who loves snow." Yeah. It’d be great to get a more classic LP coming from the south. If nothing else, it’ll take a lot more work for it to arrive in Jamestown. Didn’t we have one do that? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Mean through Saturday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Holy shit, a 937mb low at hour 138, that isnt even completely fantasy land. This could be a massive storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 43 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Holy shit, a 937mb low at hour 138, that isnt even completely fantasy land. This could be a massive storm. 138 hours is fantasy especially on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 138 hours is fantasy especially on the gfs. I disagree. There will certainly be a powerful east coast storm this weekend so it’s not just some over amplified solution at hour 288 that completely disappears on the next run never to be seen again. This storm is well within range of the models. It obviously won’t be that deep but the ingredients for a big one are all there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 We need to keep this thing in the Harrisburg-Albany corridor. My concern here isn't that it cuts, but that it makes a beeline for Boston and we end up relying on wrap-around and lake enhancement, which is iffy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Can’t copy/paste it right now but BUF’s late evening disco is an interesting read. “Potent”, “phase” and “”bomb” all included in the same paragraph. They’re clearly on notice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Can’t copy/paste it right now but BUF’s late evening disco is an interesting read. “Potent”, “phase” and “”bomb” all included in the same paragraph. They’re clearly on notice. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday looks like the calm before the storm...at least the first half the day. Several pieces spread out over portions of the conus that will come together to make for a potentially potent weekend storm system. A potent upper level trough and low over the southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking mostly due east, a potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies tracking southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico with high moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the Tennessee Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an area of low pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the moisture from the GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the southern trough the area of low pressure will track north-northeast along the western side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase over the Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to rapidly strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing out. Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs. snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 They half assed it lol Only partially updated.. This is old news the GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over ENY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Storm has crazy potential if it phases correctly. We have a beautiful high coming in from Canada with plenty of cold air and we have a northern jet storm and a southern jet storm all coming together. Lots of moving pieces, a strong storm is almost a guarantee. But we likely see many dramatic changes the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 976 over Albany. That would be a blizzard for everyone and especially those south of Lake Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Beauty lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The snow lingers south of Lake Ontario with a moist cyclonic flow into Sunday at 957 mb. All the If what the GFS depicts happens all those in Central NY will remember this storm for quite some time. You can ignore the QPF outputs at this time, that track of storm system with the warm lake temps would absolute be dumping on Rochester-SYR corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Look at those 850s while the storm is nearby providing moisture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 GEM is very similar to GFS, maybe Slightly SE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Look at those 850s while the storm is nearby providing moisture. 850H temps will drop to around -20C by Saturday evening, which will be approaching near record cold 850H temps per the SPC sounding climatology page for the date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 I hear a whole field of crickets ATM… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 48 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I hear a whole field of crickets ATM… I'm busy looking out the window trying to find the 2 to 3 inches of failed lake effect snow I was supposed to get.... NW wind...yet again.....Lake enhanced snow and Triple lake connection on a WNW flow seem to be the only thing lakes provide here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm busy looking out the window trying to find the 2 to 3 inches of failed lake effect snow I was supposed to get.... NW wind...yet again.....Lake enhanced snow and Triple lake connection on a WNW flow seem to be the only thing lakes provide here. Lol..Yeah that's what happens when they ride the rgem every event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Friday starts off dry, then later Friday, approaching mid-level trough and upper level jet could bring some showers into western NY to North Country. Cold front tied to the mid-level trough crosses region on Friday night. Then, southern stream trough lifts across Ohio Valley and arrives over the Northeast. Extent of phasing between these two troughs dictates how far west primary deepening sfc low tracks late Friday night into Saturday. Trend on most guidance now is for the phasing to occur later and thus, the sfc low is farther east on almost all guidance compared to what was shown 24- 48 hr ago. So, quicker change to snow Friday night. Now, even though that primary sfc low is east, there is a signal of stripe of moderate to heavy snow farther west along the cold front and due to forcing from the northern branch trough. Will need to continue to monitor the trends as this system could produce several inches of accumulating snow and also gusty west-northwest winds on Saturday as the deepening system lifts across New England and very chilly air for this time of year pours across the lower Great Lakes region. There remains a lot of moving parts in how this system ultimately works out across the region. Any changes in the specific portions of this system has the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast, so stay tuned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: 976 over Albany. That would be a blizzard for everyone and especially those south of Lake Ontario. Smashing that "Deal" button. Lock it in plz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Last night euro fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Will need to continue to monitor the trends as this system could produce several inches of accumulating snow and also gusty west-northwest winds on Saturday as the deepening system lifts across New England and very chilly air for this time of year pours across the lower Great Lakes region. This would be the FIRST WNW lake enhanced event with a Low pressure here in 3 years. There's been some N and NW events...but not the WNW that provide for snow desert of the Cuse. Hopefully we can get this to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 6z GFS was much less impressed. Later phase. Stringy mess. It finally gets its act together but too far ne. A possibility. The ICON was a massive bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 960 over Albany? Yes please! That’s a blizzard folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The Euro is very positively tilted. Yuk. Really hoping for a big one. When does the energy get onshore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 6z GFS was much less impressed. Later phase. Stringy mess. It finally gets its act together but too far ne. A possibility. The ICON was a massive bomb. Yeah, I saw that late development. Definitely a possibility. Hopefully not. We've had bad luck with timing of systems developing too quickly or too slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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