Revracer800 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: He is THE most conservative meteorologist around here. Almost always below everybody else and forecast guidance. But, my guess is he was going with 12z runs for that and thus, his forecast would make sense. He was banking on that the colder air would take longer to get into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Jim Teske’s snowfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 need 7" to break 100" for the season thats my benchmark 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Jim Teske’s snowfall forecast. I know this is a SYR-focused forecast, but 1-3" for the Thruway corridor from basically Del Lago on west is much lower than anyone else. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: I know this is a SYR-focused forecast, but 1-3" for the Thruway corridor from basically Del Lago on west is much lower than anyone else. He always does that. It’s only accurate for Syracuse proper. Drives me nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, PerintonMan said: I know this is a SYR-focused forecast, but 1-3" for the Thruway corridor from basically Del Lago on west is much lower than anyone else. I was surprised at how conservative his forecast is. I wonder sometimes if politics has any influence. Saturday is the big St. Patrick’s parade in Syracuse and I wonder if he’s keeping amounts down for now so not to scare people away. If he needs to increase them tomorrow he can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Watch 0z shift west. Lol. Should of sent Matt with him.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, vortmax said: Watch 0z shift west. Lol. I expect a little rain sat morning. But I’m going up tomorrow so I can get a solid day in before the storm. If sat is washout that’s the way it goes and I might hit Gore on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Should of sent Matt with him.. Hey don’t be rooting against me! I’m innocent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Should of sent Matt with him.. Vermont would never be the same… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I expect a little rain sat morning. But I’m going up tomorrow so I can get a solid day in before the storm. If sat is washout that’s the way it goes and I might hit Gore on Sunday. Gore is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: Gore is fun. Probably my favorite mountain on the whole east coast when they have the snow. The glades are incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 EURO looks better too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 39 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Vermont would never be the same… Ski industry would be destroyed if Matt is there. Just a smoking crater... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 54 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Ski industry would be destroyed if Matt is there. Just a smoking crater... Tis true. Sledders ride more in the mud than snow on the Tughill these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Hrrr0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 High Rez Canadian was solid at 18z, for most.. Some guidance is showing sort of a minimum between the overrunning and coastal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hrrr0z Seems like the models are adding more QPF back west towards WNY. Each model has raised the amounts an 1” or 2. Most now show a 4-6” swath or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 0z Nam is a 3"-6" event with 6"+ a little to our S/SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 0z Nam is a 3"-6" event with 6"+ a little to our S/SE.. I am tossing strictly based on the snow hole over Oneida Lake. Even the NAM is in on the Northern Onondaga winter hoax. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Seems like the models are adding more QPF back west towards WNY. Each model has raised the amounts an 1” or 2. Most now show a 4-6” swath or more. Little too early for HRRR-go with the NAM…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Little too early for HRRR-go with the NAM…? NAM seems to have gone rogue with the Far East solution…my thoughts are the overrunning event Friday night had more juice than previously modeled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Rgem and WRF guidance.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Pretty lackluster stuff. I guess we’ll take what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: NAM seems to have gone rogue with the Far East solution…my thoughts are the overrunning event Friday night had more juice than previously modeled agreed, looks like our best chance is actually 6pm Friday - 6am Saturday. p type and how fast until it can start to accumulate will be the key. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Models persistently showing a hole over interior WNY. Someone is going to get skunked. Others will do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pretty lackluster stuff. I guess we’ll take what we get. Every single one of those outputs just showing this sad valley of snowless despair right up the Genesee River into Rochester. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 53 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: I am tossing strictly based on the snow hole over Oneida Lake. Even the NAM is in on the Northern Onondaga winter hoax. Seriously. What is up with the stupid snow hole in Northern Onondaga county all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: agreed, looks like our best chance is actually 6pm Friday - 6am Saturday. p type and how fast until it can start to accumulate will be the key. I think with ratios, especially Friday night-early Saturday is when we’ll see our best accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 hours ago, DeltaT13 said: Alright, I'm pushing off for Vermont at 4am tomorrow morning/tonight. Still riding the hairy edge of that rain snow line, but that's typically where you want to be. I'm hoping some elevation also helps out. Good luck to everyone with what will likely be the last "big one" of this winter. You going to the storm conference in Burlington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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