wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Overrunning comes with marginal temps, so even that is probably wasted precipitation.. Always have next year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 If NAM ends up correct...unreal. What a disaster of a winter for CNY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3k just as bad.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 FV3 tries to take us off the ledge lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The thing is, the NAM's snowfall area isn't that different from the FV3. But, it just suppresses and dries out the northern part of the snow field. The snow over PA looks very similar on both, but then it like vanishes over NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 It would be the absolute classic ending to this winter if Overrunning hits Buffalo to Watertown and then the coastal low hits downstate and this area is stuck in the middle. Absolutely classic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The FV3 has the LP over NW NJ at 986. NAM is over water at 990. Let’s pray that the NAM is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Meh, not to QPF queen here but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 WRF even further SE than the NAMs. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: FV3 tries to take us off the ledge lol Still snowing at Hour 53. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: KBUF map is WAY overdone IMO. Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8". My guess: SYR - 10" ROC - 3" BUF - 2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Still snowing at Hour 53. Just unbelievable how different these are at this range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8". My guess: SYR - 10" ROC - 3" BUF - 2" My guess BUF 3.5” ROC 4.1” SYR 4.2” BGM: 7.7” ALB 6.8” Delta in VT 14.6” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Still snowing at Hour 53. That's a little more like it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Rgem is somewhat like the fv3 which is obviously our best hope right now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem is somewhat like the fv3 which is obviously our best hope right now lol It too shifted SE a bit. Ok, NW trend can start any minute now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It too shifted SE a bit. Ok, NW trend can start any minute now. As MJO stated, we don’t have blocking, is that why it wants to slide away? At least NAM is the only disaster thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: As MJO stated, we don’t have blocking, is that why it wants to slide away? At least NAM is the only disaster thus far. It all of a sudden looks like all the other systems this season...just more south and east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Nbm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Nbm Dice roll situation for me in Sullivan basically, and at my relatively lower elevation. I’d like one last 6” to top off what’s otherwise been a mediocre winter. Remarkable, though, that I held a consistent pack for over 30 days after the MLK storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: As MJO stated, we don’t have blocking, is that why it wants to slide away? At least NAM is the only disaster thus far. With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 GFS keeps hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Sizeable shift east on the mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, PerintonMan said: Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8". My guess: SYR - 10" ROC - 3" BUF - 2" I’m siding with BW on this event. GFS has 4” at KBUF at 10-1. I expect a touch drier as we will be colder faster as the overrunning precip is in place. 4-6” is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont. Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. The last few days have featured later phasing which has resulted in a further SE track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. I never said blocking makes this go further north and west. With no blocking , storms have a chance to trend more north and west but there are also other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont. It also depends on where the blocking is. West based NAO blocking favors inland runners while east based NAO blocking favors nor'easters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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