wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Waaaaay better. lol 12Z for its entire run: 18z for only up to 54 hrs. (So much better...lol. P.S. Check out the N. Syracuse Screw zone. Haha. Downsloping? Always something.): There's gotta be a "Great Oz behind the curtain" playing with the controls. Yeah I was wondering the same but winds are out of the N/NW, hard to downslope off the lake lol Models seem to not like that area for some reason though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 That's called getting Nam'd. Wow. Just glad to see the east trend stopped and shift back NW. Lock. It. In. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Basically 12/17/20 type gradient with nothing to 2’ in 85 miles. My house bisects that with 6-7”. Insane if that type of gradient happens again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Lmao at 893mb.. Typical 3k lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Lmao at 893mb.. Typical 3k lol The NAM is a "good" model. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: The NAM is a "good" model. It was way ahead of the globals with the SE shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Accumulating snow likely Friday night and Saturday... Widespread snowfall event expected Friday night through Saturday, with some additional snowfall expected from northwest flow lake effect Saturday night. Two separate shortwaves, one within the southern stream and the other within the northern stream will be head eastward Friday night. These features will eventually phase over the mid Atlantic and Northeast by Saturday. In response, low pressure will develop Friday night over the southern Appalachians. This low will then strengthen and track up along the East Coast into New England Saturday. Surface temperatures early Friday evening will likely still be warm enough to support rain or a rain/snow mix across much of the area ahead of the approaching cold front. The exception may be across portions of the Niagara frontier and closer to Lake Erie where the start of wet-bulbing may have already transitioned the rain over to wet snow. The surface cold front will cross the area from west to east early Friday night. Once the boundary passes, any rain will transition to snow very quickly and pick up in intensity. The expectation is that by midnight or so Friday night that the entire area will have transitioned over to wet snow. Steady light to occasionally moderate snow will continue across the entire area through the first half of Saturday. Snowfall rates are not likely to exceed more than a half inch per hour. Although, there is the possibility for some mesoscale banding on the western side of the storm, as strong frontogenesis is expected due to the rapidly deepening low which may bring enhanced snowfall rates. Later Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as the storm starts to pull off, lake enhanced snow will eventually go to pure lake effect snow as 850 mb temperatures near -18C. This will maintain snowfall to the southeast of the lakes and higher terrain. As the storm deepens as it lifts into northern New England, winds will increase with wind gusts of 40-45 mph possible Saturday into Saturday night which will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow with potential near white-out conditions at times. The greatest snowfall totals continue to look to be focused east of the Genesee Valley and also across the higher terrain east and south of Buffalo off Lake Erie due to lake enhancement/upslope flow. These areas are included in a winter storm watch as outlined below, not only for snowfall of 7 inches or more, but also with the added impacts due to the strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The NAM is a "good" model. You’ll be eating your words when a tidal wave wipes out the east coast. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You’ll be eating your words when a tidal wave wipes out the east coast. Lol Lol, 893...impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: How quickly things change..lol It looks like totals actually increased a little for syracuse proper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You’ll be eating your words when a tidal wave wipes out the east coast. Lol That's lower than Hurricane Katrina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Nbm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Nbm 5.2” at KBUF??? Obviously that doesn’t include the NAM… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: 5.2” at KBUF??? Obviously that doesn’t include the NAM… Yeah nbm comes out before the rest of the models. So 18z nbm mostly based on 12z runs I'm guessing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just like Binghamton, buff raised totala a little, at least for this area.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Every mile matters lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Waaaaay better. lol There's gotta be a "Great Oz behind the curtain" playing with the controls. Yooo Hoo....! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Similar to last run but a little better for western areas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Alright, I'm pushing off for Vermont at 4am tomorrow morning/tonight. Still riding the hairy edge of that rain snow line, but that's typically where you want to be. I'm hoping some elevation also helps out. Good luck to everyone with what will likely be the last "big one" of this winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 18z suite looked a lot better than 12z for most everyone here. Spread the wealth. More organized and more agreed upon track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Alright, I'm pushing off for Vermont at 4am tomorrow morning/tonight. Still riding the hairy edge of that rain snow line, but that's typically where you want to be. I'm hoping some elevation also helps out. Good luck to everyone with what will likely be the last "big one" of this winter. I think you’re golden 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just like Binghamton, buff raised totala a little, at least for this area.. KBUF still 4-6” and point and click says 4-7” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Forecast out of Burlington.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 19 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Alright, I'm pushing off for Vermont at 4am tomorrow morning/tonight. Still riding the hairy edge of that rain snow line, but that's typically where you want to be. I'm hoping some elevation also helps out. Good luck to everyone with what will likely be the last "big one" of this winter. Watch 0z shift west. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Latest Nws snowfall grids 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Jim Teske on channel 9 is saying 1-3 for my area, 3-6 for syracuse, 6-10 for the Tug Hill and the hills south of syracuse. I've seen so many different forecast i don't know WTF to believe lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah I was wondering the same but winds are out of the N/NW, hard to downslope off the lake lol Models seem to not like that area for some reason though.. Yeah, they have been minimizing amounts there all winter. (Haven't been too wrong, I suppose! haha) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Jim Teske on channel 9 is saying 1-3 for my area, 3-6 for syracuse, 6-10 for the Tug Hill and the hills south of syracuse. I've seen so many different forecast i don't know WTF to believe lol. He is THE most conservative meteorologist around here. Almost always below everybody else and forecast guidance. But, my guess is he was going with 12z runs for that and thus, his forecast would make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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