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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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  On 3/10/2022 at 3:02 PM, PerintonMan said:

Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8".

My guess:

SYR - 10"

ROC - 3"

BUF - 2"

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I’m siding with BW on this event. GFS has 4” at KBUF at 10-1. I expect a touch drier as we will be colder faster as the overrunning precip is in place. 4-6” is a good call. 

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  On 3/10/2022 at 3:59 PM, MJO812 said:

With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont.

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Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. The last few days have featured later phasing which has resulted in a further SE track. 

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  On 3/10/2022 at 4:22 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Blocking isn't the only thing that makes a storm go further NW. Phasing and cyclogenesis also does that. We saw that a few days ago with the GFS "bombing" out a storm over NE New York. 

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I never said blocking makes this go further north and west. With no blocking , storms have a chance to trend more north and west but there are also other factors. 

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  On 3/10/2022 at 3:59 PM, MJO812 said:

With blocking , this would go further south and east but the euro and Nam has multiple lows riding the trough while the gfs and rgem dont.

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It also depends on where the blocking is. West based NAO blocking favors inland runners while east based NAO blocking favors nor'easters. 

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