Thinksnow18 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I get that. I really do. This one should be yours. You need to quit day vaping pure THC!!! West for the win!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Another system, another system on the razor's edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Euro looks a little East.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Euro looks a little East.. Lock that sucker in. Almost an ideal track here especially knowing it'll trend NE leading up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 GFS/Nam/Euro all have a swath of 12+, just located a little differently lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: NYC now getting more than ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 KBUF spot on with following Euro, way east. Looks like 2-4" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The low going over water at any point pretty much takes BUF-ROC out of the game for anything approaching a warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 This is the euro 60 hours out for todays event, while the track of the surface LP is not much different, the northern extent of precipitation is.. This model has been to far SE so often it's hard to trust lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 10:1 not including today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Still plenty of spread.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Yikes not looking good for us westerners. Hopefully this thing will tick back northwest over the next 24-36 hours or else we barely see advisory snows back here. Looks great for BGM to SYR to ALB as they have some wiggle room even if this thing shifts further SE a bit or does trend back NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF spot on with following Euro, way east. Looks like 2-4" here. Question is how do they choose a model when the scores for said model this year have been shaky at best? I think NAM has been best inside 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Still plenty of spread.. Few great hits in there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Still plenty of spread.. 78 hours and a couple hundred miles of spread. It’s never easy. Lol. Buffalo or Albany jackpot? At least it ain’t going to freaking JT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Question is how do they choose a model when the scores for said model this year have been shaky at best? I think NAM has been best inside 72 hours. That's what meteorologists are trained to do, sometimes using their knowledge to override models altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Question is how do they choose a model when the scores for said model this year have been shaky at best? I think NAM has been best inside 72 hours. You can't use the best model and NAM in same sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Leelee said: That's what meteorologists are trained to do, sometimes using their knowledge to override models altogether. I wish Buf had given us their rationale for this am’s disco. They saw this SE shift before the models did. And I’m wondering how.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: You can't use the best model and NAM in same sentence. NAM has been great. It really has. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z Runs are pretty key at this point. Make or break? If the SE trudge continues I think we can write off the Buf-Roc sector for warning amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Accumulating snow likely Friday night and Saturday... Deep upper level PV anomaly dropping southeast from Central Canada, along with some sheared out upper level jet energy from the Desert Southwest may provide just enough moisture/forcing to activate the tight mid level baroclinic zone in place to squeeze out a little bit of light snow or flurries Friday morning. However, this activity will have little if any impact for the local area. The more substantial snow will arrive Friday night and continue through the day Saturday. As both disturbances within the northern and southern stream approach the area, they will eventually phasing as they get closer to the eastern seaboard. This will allow for a developing surface wave to rapidly intensify as it moves northward from the mid Atlantic states Friday night into New England on Saturday. Associated precipitation should start off as light rain perhaps as early as late Friday afternoon with temperatures still in the upper 30s and 40s. That will change quickly Friday evening as a sharp cold front moves through. Much colder air will pour into the region switching the rain over to snow very quickly. There continues to remain uncertainty to how the overall system evolves and this will play a large role in how fast the cold air arrives and changes the precipitation over to snow, but it does seems likely at this juncture that most of the area will change over to snow before Saturday morning. Snow will then continue Saturday with increasing snowfall rates, especially for areas where some lake enhancement occurs. A high impact event for the area seems more and more likely with the potential for significant snowfall amounts, so will continue to highlight this storm in the HWO product. On the back side of this system, lake effect snow within a increasing northwest flow will bring additional snowfall amounts to the southeast of the lakes and higher terrain Saturday night. Winds will become quite gusty later Saturday and Saturday night and could bring additional impacts along with the snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ...Accumulating snow likely Friday night and Saturday... Deep upper level PV anomaly dropping southeast from Central Canada, along with some sheared out upper level jet energy from the Desert Southwest may provide just enough moisture/forcing to activate the tight mid level baroclinic zone in place to squeeze out a little bit of light snow or flurries Friday morning. However, this activity will have little if any impact for the local area. The more substantial snow will arrive Friday night and continue through the day Saturday. As both disturbances within the northern and southern stream approach the area, they will eventually phasing as they get closer to the eastern seaboard. This will allow for a developing surface wave to rapidly intensify as it moves northward from the mid Atlantic states Friday night into New England on Saturday. Associated precipitation should start off as light rain perhaps as early as late Friday afternoon with temperatures still in the upper 30s and 40s. That will change quickly Friday evening as a sharp cold front moves through. Much colder air will pour into the region switching the rain over to snow very quickly. There continues to remain uncertainty to how the overall system evolves and this will play a large role in how fast the cold air arrives and changes the precipitation over to snow, but it does seems likely at this juncture that most of the area will change over to snow before Saturday morning. Snow will then continue Saturday with increasing snowfall rates, especially for areas where some lake enhancement occurs. A high impact event for the area seems more and more likely with the potential for significant snowfall amounts, so will continue to highlight this storm in the HWO product. On the back side of this system, lake effect snow within a increasing northwest flow will bring additional snowfall amounts to the southeast of the lakes and higher terrain Saturday night. Winds will become quite gusty later Saturday and Saturday night and could bring additional impacts along with the snow. What the hell is going on over there? Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: This is the euro 60 hours out for todays event, while the track of the surface LP is not much different, the northern extent of precipitation is.. This model has been to far SE so often it's hard to trust lol Yeah, the Euro has been the opposite of NAM this year. It has not done a very good job this winter. It seems to me the NAM and Canadian (Ggem) have done a pretty good job this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 NAM much farther NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Still big Central NY hit on NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 NAM coming in HOT!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Jumped East next frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM much farther NW Wow. That JHW magnet is for REAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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