DeltaT13 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The 12z Canadian is a decent hit for both Upstate and Vermont. Would love to lock that in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Euro is meh lol Clown map doesn't look terrible but the good rates slide off to the south and east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Is it going to keep shifting further east and get weaker? Is this a time where we can actually get an east shift and then have it move back west as we get within 48 hours? Or do we get screwed to the east this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 6z eps was also SE. We could definitely use the old NW shift. Should come…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 This looks like an advisory event to me for the most part at this stage. Like a general 3-6 with maybe a stripe of 6-9 somewhere along the front where the best forcing is (CNY?). The negative factors against a bigger event appear to include fast-moving wave, positive-neutral trough, less than ideal snow rates for most of the event, time of day (mostly a Saturday event), and a warm antecedent ground and air mass (m/u 40s friday). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: This looks like an advisory event to me for the most part at this stage. Like a general 3-6 with maybe a stripe of 6-9 somewhere along the front where the best forcing is (CNY?). The negative factors against a bigger event appear to include fast-moving wave, positive-neutral trough, less than ideal snow rates for most of the event, time of day (mostly a Saturday event), and a warm antecedent ground and air mass (m/u 40s friday). Things can change but IMO this is a warning event for everyone but Buffalo. And that’s close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z Euro, gfs and cmc 10:1 for this storm only 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Things can change but IMO this is a warning event for everyone but Buffalo. And that’s close Hopefully the Gfs/Gefs is right. Euro and cmc and their ensembles are much more muted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Hopefully the Gfs/Gefs is right. Euro and cmc and their ensembles are much more muted. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Yeah, the Euro scenario is what I'm afraid of. Low hugs the coast, we're on the fringe, congratulations northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 55 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: The 12z Canadian is a decent hit for both Upstate and Vermont. Would love to lock that in! If I was you as of this early juncture I’d be headed to Vermont for this one, looks like a super safe bet unless your in far southern VT. Should be more wind and whiteouts there as well with the low rapidly deepening as it moves north closer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 NAM and mesos have schooled the globals all season...The models literally trend until its game time lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: NAM and mesos have schooled the globals all season...The models literally trend until its game time lol 2 hours ago, vortmax said: Who wants to bet the mesos are going to be more amped when they get in range? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Yep this time tomorrow the NAM will be jackpotting YYZ. Lmao 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z ensemble mean 10:1 (not including tomorrow event) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Some monster hits on GEFS would appear to be skewing the mean a little bit. Also a little hard to tell how much tomorrow's event is skewing the indiv member panels. Can't narrow the interval unfortunately like you can for the 10:1 mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Some monster hits on GEFS would appear to be skewing the mean a little bit. Also a little hard to tell how much tomorrow's event is skewing the indiv member panels. Can't narrow the interval unfortunately like you can for the 10:1 mean. Members 4 or 24 please. Not very often you see a bunch of 24"+ members...Clearly there's a chance for a massive hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 30 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: If I was you as of this early juncture I’d be headed to Vermont for this one, looks like a super safe bet unless your in far southern VT. Should be more wind and whiteouts there as well with the low rapidly deepening as it moves north closer to you. This is kind of my thought. I'm riding Friday at Sugarbush and Saturday at Killington. Worst case scenario is we get rain most of Saturday (I'd bail on snowboarding) but a rapid changeover late day and then some "storm chasing" and fun obs Sat night into Sunday morning to somewhat make up for it. And the best case scenario would be a wild powder day on Saturday and an amazing trip overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This is kind of my thought. I'm riding Friday at Sugarbush and Saturday at Killington. Worst case scenario is we get rain most of Saturday (I'd bail on snowboarding) but a rapid changeover late day and then some "storm chasing" and fun obs Sat night into Sunday morning to somewhat make up for it. And the best case scenario would be a wild powder day on Saturday and an amazing trip overall. Sugarbush is awesome. I was just there. Not much around there but super fun hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 28 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z ensemble mean 10:1 (not including tomorrow event) Lol one does not look like the other for wolfie and I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Sugarbush is awesome. I was just there. Not much around there but super fun hill. Yes, the glades are fun there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Icon 18z decided to come in farther west.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Icon goes to Jamestown. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 LR NAM starting to get into range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Hm. One model has a low over Western NY, while a different one has it off the VA coast. An increase in technology sure has made things easier for humans.................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The leading edge of a potent mid-level trough will bring increasing chances for a few showers to far western NY into the North Country on Friday. The cold front tied to this mid-level trough begins to enter the region Friday evening while a southern stream trough...originating out of the Desert SW begins to interact with the trough tracking out of the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Timing or phasing between these two troughs will then dictate how far west or east the developing sfc low then tracks. This will be the key in determining snow amounts for our area. Right now...the best chance for accumulating snows will focus from the Genesee Valley into the North Country with lesser amounts further west. Even so...it appears that there will likely be some accumulating snows with the eastward advancing cold front for all of the CWA. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Keep in mind though...any changes in any specific portion of this system has the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast, Saturday...current guidance rapidly deepens the coastal sfc low(< 970 mb) as it steams up the Northeast coast. Any remaining synoptic snows will gradually transition over to a hybrid of lake enhanced to then pure lake effect snows as the day progresses. CAA on the back side of this system sends 850 hPa down to -16C/-18C. BUFKIT profiles show deep moisture extending well through the DGZ and upstream connections coming into play. It`s likely that there will be some accumulating lake snows east-southeast of the lakes. One other thing to note...as the sfc low pulls away winds will become quite gusty. That said...don`t want to get too far ahead as there is still a lot of time for things to change for Saturday and Saturday night Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 ICON/RGEM/NAM would all be farther NW than the globals. The timing of that northern stream clipper determines where this storm goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Top Analog Feb 17-18 1993 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 GFS is about to drop a monster for all of us. Quite a bit more QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: ICON/RGEM/NAM would all be farther NW than the globals. The timing of that northern stream clipper determines where this storm goes. RGEM is much further east compared to that 18z ICON run. Would be a good hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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