LakeEffectKing Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Models increasing threat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 When the King’s speaking, I’m listening. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Just saw a local meteorological legend in Don Paul state that Friday night-Saturday look interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 March 2017 redux? Big winds followed with big snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 I'm supposed to be in Vermont this weekend, do I cancel the trip and stay here to ride local? Tough decisions needed in very short order. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I'm supposed to be in Vermont this weekend, do I cancel the trip and stay here to ride local? Tough decisions needed in very short order. That is a tough one. Wait until the very last second to get more model runs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: That is a tough one. Wait until the very last second to get more model runs in. I feel like this year the big storms have been modeled well in advance. This is only 4 days out. If the models are keying in now it’s just about the track now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Euro coming in weaker and east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro coming in weaker and east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I feel like this year the big storms have been modeled well in advance. This is only 4 days out. If the models are keying in now it’s just about the track now. I don't think all the pieces are onshore yet so sampling is a bit variable still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Toss...bullseye over SYR 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 39 minutes ago, vortmax said: That is a tough one. Wait until the very last second to get more model runs in. I actually am very fortunate to have the luxury of doing this. A group of friends from Boston are renting a house up there and I'm just a late add on that can either come or go (Doesn't change anything either way). I'll be making a game time decision Wed/Thurs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 CMC ensemble mean+members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Mean snowfall fwiw(could include a little from Wednesday) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Could be our most widespread snowstorm of the season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Could be our most widespread snowstorm of the season. Slow down Matt. Don’t get your hopes too high just yet. Still lots of spread and a decent potential that this does the same thing a lot of them have done. Syracuse and points east are on a razors edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 51 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I actually am very fortunate to have the luxury of doing this. A group of friends from Boston are renting a house up there and I'm just a late add on that can either come or go (Doesn't change anything either way). I'll be making a game time decision Wed/Thurs. I have a planned trip to Snow Ridge. How great would it be to in the mountains for a big one? I too would cry if I went east and it went west. Not sure I can back out… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Elongated stretch out mess. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Let the waffling begin lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Slow down Matt. Don’t get your hopes too high just yet. Still lots of spread and a decent potential that this does the same thing a lot of them have done. Syracuse and points east are on a razors edge. Hey, like I've said, I call them as I see them. I mentioned yesterday that our best shot of a Noreaster was this upcoming weekend. The way the jetstream is setting up with that cold push of air cutting south makes this one of our best shots of the season. It's not so much relying on a high pressure to our north to squeeze in enough cold air while a system stalls over us. The models are showing this Noreaster look more today, with a very widespread snowfall. It's not as much of a narrow band. If it comes to fruition, that would be awesome. (I do understand your cautioning me though. ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Let the waffling begin lol Improvements are acceptable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Bottoms out at 937 mb lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Back and forth we go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Back and forth we go.. I think this is our biggest concern. That it’s gonna want to cut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The heavier rates still lead to a similar outcome, with a slightly more west-based bias: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 This feels like it’s 10 days off. It’s not. Precip could start in as little as 100 hours. I think this is a pretty high confidence event. Precip types and exact track are probably up in the air for another 48 hours. But this should be an easier forecast than we’ve had. More like the early Feb storm than the stupid sliders we’ve had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This feels like it’s 10 days off. It’s not. Precip could start in as little as 100 hours. I think this is a pretty high confidence event. Precip types and exact track are probably up in the air for another 48 hours. But this should be an easier forecast than we’ve had. More like the early Feb storm than the stupid sliders we’ve had. There you go. That's what I was talking about earlier. As you can tell, I am more positive about this event than most of the other ones this season. It's a different track than what we've seen. My entire school community was on a high from the record warm day yesterday. I ruined it when I kept sharing that snow was possible several times this week. Muwahahahaha.....everyone here knows me as the "crazy guy who loves snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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