George BM Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 NWS is forecasting 2-3" for western Augusta County and along the ridges of the Shen Valley. Could be a sneaky day off from school for the kids on Wednesday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: NWS is forecasting 2-3" for western Augusta County and along the ridges of the Shen Valley. Could be a sneaky day off from school for the kids on Wednesday here. I think you will see these number increase for the ridges but not increase in terms of coverage area. This looks like elevation snow. Elliot knob should do well here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 This event reminds me of the late March (3/21/19) snow linked in article below. Blue ridge up through skyline drive received 6-10" while most everyone saw cold white rain/rain. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1108789512023539713&ved=2ahUKEwi60dC1rLT2AhXbqXIEHavwA70QFnoECCgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1-G5HaHxoEBGM9UttlRf3L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 NAM'd I see! Of course taken with a grain of salt, sun angle, temp challenges, etc.... It is the NAM after all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 And GFS - I know the clown maps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Nam 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Ok - Sorry for the spam of maps.. we all know temps will be marginal, the ground will be warm, the accumulations will be mulch and shaded grassy spots as well as tops of cars and far less than what those maps show until you get to higher elevations.... but snow tv is a coming from all models now for folks N&W of the beltway according to the latest models.. We will see if they hold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 This does look like it could be sneaky for the usual NW folks with the nice elevation IF the modeling is correct with some of these precip rates...This will probably be another event that tests the theory that the cities/lower elevation areas cant really do much with marginal events anymore opposed to 20-30 years ago but NW/elevation folks, maybe pad another few inches to yearly totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: This does look like it could be sneaky for the usual NW folks with the nice elevation IF the modeling is correct with some of these precip rates...This will probably be another event that tests the theory that the cities/lower elevation areas cant really do much with marginal events anymore opposed to 20-30 years ago but NW/elevation folks, maybe pad another few inches to yearly totals. You can't take one event in isolation and use it as a test case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 48 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: NAM'd I see! Of course taken with a grain of salt, sun angle, temp challenges, etc.... It is the NAM after all! Looks like a big barracuda with Annapolis in its mouth! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: I think you will see these number increase for the ridges but not increase in terms of coverage area. This looks like elevation snow. Elliot knob should do well here. Maybe on Parrs Ridge too I'm hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 prepare for disappointment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: prepare for disappointment Is this the place to talk about warm ground, March sun, and 35 degree surface temps? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Is this the place to talk about warm ground, March sun, and 35 degree surface temps? I have daffodils growing and can't wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Is this the place to talk about warm ground, March sun, and 35 degree surface temps? @psuhoffmanwill be posting 4" pics with drifts to 6". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, ravensrule said: @psuhoffmanwill be posting 4" pics with drifts to 6". Yeah Mount Manchester will have orographically enhanced continuous deathbands with a temp of 32.5, while the surrounding areas will be 34.7 with snow tv and light mulch coverings when it comes down harder. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: Is this the place to talk about warm ground, March sun, and 35 degree surface temps? suppose to be cloudy during the snow 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Baltimorewx said: This does look like it could be sneaky for the usual NW folks with the nice elevation IF the modeling is correct with some of these precip rates...This will probably be another event that tests the theory that the cities/lower elevation areas cant really do much with marginal events anymore opposed to 20-30 years ago but NW/elevation folks, maybe pad another few inches to yearly totals. Lol marginal temps today were still marginal 30 years ago. Unless the freezing point of water has changed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ji said: suppose to be cloudy during the snow Plenty of solar radiation makes it through those clouds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol marginal temps today were still marginal 30 years ago. Unless the freezing point of water has changed Im not pulling this out of nowhere...mainly just referring to PSUs point a couple weeks back. I cant remember the entire post, but he did say how the urban areas are likely experiencing less marginal snow events...or something of that sort anyway, maybe he can chime in to correct what I am wrong on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Yeah Mount Manchester will have orographically enhanced continuous deathbands with a temp of 32.5, while the surrounding areas will be 34.7 with snow tv and light mulch coverings when it comes down harder. That's actually how it works too. That's how it is where I live now. I live at one of the highest points on the southern part of the ridge. That ice storm a couple weeks ago was crazy. Trees and branches down at our place at 938' and down the hill a mile it is much less and always 2-3 degrees warmer. It's weird compared to what I'm use to at swamp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said: Im not pulling this out of nowhere...mainly just referring to PSUs point a couple weeks back. I cant remember the entire post, but he did say how the urban areas are likely experiencing less marginal snow events...or something of that sort anyway, maybe he can chime in to correct what I am wrong on. I don’t doubt that, but it’s because it’s warmer. I guess you might say what was once marginal is now more marginal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 12k NAM holds serve - better for the metro actually. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12k NAM holds serve - better for the metro actually. Don’t post a map….could bother some in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Don’t post a map….could bother some in hereHaha - it would be fun on the 3k/12k for sure. For once the ground temps might actually be problematic but the rates would overcome a lot. It’d be memorable if true. 3k is ~5” in 3hrs for metro proper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Haha - it would be fun on the 3k/12k for sure. For once the ground temps might actually be problematic but the rates would overcome a lot. It’d be memorable if true. 3k is ~5” in 3hrs for metro proper. I guess it just wants to snow this year…sorry I had a brain hemorrhage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 WB 18Z 3K NAM Snow Depth map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3k NAM sounding for MBY is only above freezing right at the surface. I’d it can thump like that at 7-9am, it should accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z 3K NAM Snow Depth map I’d take that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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