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Wednesday March 9th wet snow(snow TV?) threat


George BM
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8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

NWS is forecasting 2-3" for western Augusta County and along the ridges of the Shen Valley.  Could be a sneaky day off from school for the kids on Wednesday here.

Screenshot 2022-03-07 10.28.03 AM.png

I think you will see these number increase for the ridges but not increase in terms of coverage area. This looks like elevation snow. Elliot knob should do well here.

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This event reminds me of the late March (3/21/19)  snow linked in article below. Blue ridge up through skyline drive received 6-10" while most everyone saw cold white rain/rain.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1108789512023539713&ved=2ahUKEwi60dC1rLT2AhXbqXIEHavwA70QFnoECCgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1-G5HaHxoEBGM9UttlRf3L

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Ok - Sorry for the spam of maps.. we all know temps will be marginal, the ground will be warm, the accumulations will be mulch and shaded grassy spots as well as tops of cars and far less than what those maps show until you get to higher elevations.... but snow tv is a coming from all models now for folks N&W of the beltway according to the latest models.. We will see if they hold.

 

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This does look like it could be sneaky for the usual NW folks with the nice elevation IF the modeling is correct with some of these precip rates...This will probably be another event that tests the theory that the cities/lower elevation areas cant really do much with marginal events anymore opposed to 20-30 years ago but NW/elevation folks, maybe pad another few inches to yearly totals.

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

This does look like it could be sneaky for the usual NW folks with the nice elevation IF the modeling is correct with some of these precip rates...This will probably be another event that tests the theory that the cities/lower elevation areas cant really do much with marginal events anymore opposed to 20-30 years ago but NW/elevation folks, maybe pad another few inches to yearly totals.

You can't take one event in isolation and use it as a test case.

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2 hours ago, Baltimorewx said:

This does look like it could be sneaky for the usual NW folks with the nice elevation IF the modeling is correct with some of these precip rates...This will probably be another event that tests the theory that the cities/lower elevation areas cant really do much with marginal events anymore opposed to 20-30 years ago but NW/elevation folks, maybe pad another few inches to yearly totals.

Lol marginal temps today were still marginal 30 years ago. Unless the freezing point of water has changed

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol marginal temps today were still marginal 30 years ago. Unless the freezing point of water has changed

Im not pulling this out of nowhere...mainly just referring to PSUs point a couple weeks back. I cant remember the entire post, but he did say how the urban areas are likely experiencing less marginal snow events...or something of that sort anyway, maybe he can chime in to correct what I am wrong on.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Yeah Mount Manchester will have orographically enhanced continuous deathbands with a temp of 32.5, while the surrounding areas will be 34.7 with snow tv and light mulch coverings when it comes down harder.

That's actually how it works too. That's how it is where I live now. I live at one of the highest points on the southern part of the ridge. That ice storm a couple weeks ago was crazy. Trees and branches down at our place at 938' and down the hill a mile it is much less and always 2-3 degrees warmer. It's weird compared to what I'm use to at swamp lol

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Im not pulling this out of nowhere...mainly just referring to PSUs point a couple weeks back. I cant remember the entire post, but he did say how the urban areas are likely experiencing less marginal snow events...or something of that sort anyway, maybe he can chime in to correct what I am wrong on.

I don’t doubt that, but it’s because it’s warmer. I guess you might say what was once marginal is now more marginal.

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11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Haha - it would be fun on the 3k/12k for sure. For once the ground temps might actually be problematic but the rates would overcome a lot. It’d be memorable if true.

3k is ~5” in 3hrs for metro proper.

I guess it just wants to snow this year…sorry I had a brain hemorrhage. 

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