March 6 (late) - March 7 System

[Hoosier]

After being denied a chance to start storm threads in February, I will not be denied once more.  

Doesn't look like a big storm, but likely to have wintry wx.

[Baum]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

After being denied a chance to start storm threads in February, I will not be denied once more.  

Doesn't look like a big storm, but likely to have wintry wx.

[Chicago Storm]

After being denied a chance to start storm threads in February, I will not be denied once more.  
Doesn't look like a big storm, but likely to have wintry wx.

i wasn’t interested.


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[cyclone77]

12z Euro.  Looks about right.

 

[Hoosier]

This thing is going to be coming almost immediately on the heels of near 70 degree temps this weekend.  Gotta love this time of year.

Actually wouldn't mind it missing imby.  Reaggravated an old lower back injury recently that has me walking around like a 90 year old and would be nice to not have to be paranoid about slipping and falling.  Usually takes a week or two to calm it down.

[bowtie`]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This thing is going to be coming almost immediately on the heels of near 70 degree temps this weekend.  Gotta love this time of year.

Actually wouldn't mind it missing imby.  Reaggravated an old lower back injury recently that has me walking around like a 90 year old and would be nice to not have to be paranoid about slipping and falling.  Usually takes a week or two to calm it down.

Hope you get better soonest.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The severe threat and winds with the frontal passage could be interesting at least

[Sciascia]

06Z GFS & 00Z Euro have a similar swath area.

[Baum]

this is the part where the stat padders are going to put ORD normal/above 

"BOTH ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THIS PERIOD."

[A-L-E-K]

3.5 final call

[Baum]

19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

3.5 final call

it only makes sense we get an overperformer after a taste of 70 and thunderstorms making us all ready to move on. book it.

[Chicago Storm]

this is the part where the stat padders are going to put ORD normal/above 
"BOTH ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL/IN DURING THIS PERIOD."

but is it stat padding? march averages 5.5” of snow at ORD.

and if you think about it, all snow is technically ‘stat padding’.


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[Baum]

23 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

but is it stat padding? march averages 5.5” of snow at ORD.

and if you think about it, all snow is technically ‘stat padding’.


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agreed. And by March, I'm fine tracking an event and having it gone days later as opposed to building a snow pack in the heart of winter. But let's face it almost reinforces how odd the start of this winter was to go through December nary a flake. 

[Stevo6899]

Euro has 18 hours of light to moderate snow. Could be another 4-6 incher for dtw. Thats how we roll.

[Cary67]

6 minutes ago, Baum said:

agreed. And by March, I'm fine tracking an event and having it gone days later as opposed to building a snow pack in the heart of winter. But let's face it almost reinforces how odd the start of this winter was to go through December nary a flake. 

Xmas will have to be moved to Jan.25th to account for the seasonal shift of winter due to AGW

[Danny8]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

Xmas will have to be moved to Jan.25th to account for the seasonal shift of winter due to AGW

Ha I agree that it should be moved a month. I want snow all winter but your average citizen only wants it in December for the holidays, so this year was a disaster from that regard.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Xmas will have to be moved to Jan.25th to account for the seasonal shift of winter due to AGW

I don't think agw has anything to do with our December luck lately but it has been a weird quirk. You can't go by the mantra that everything is getting later because we have had no shortage of snowier and colder than normal Novembers as well as some unusual October snowfalls lately. I attribute it to a weird trend of luck where the other shoe will eventually drop. We had similar runs of shit Decembers in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1990s.

 

Fun fact. At Detroit...

9 of the last 17 Christmases have had snow on the ground.

16 of the last 17 Valentines Days have had snow on the ground.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

but is it stat padding? march averages 5.5” of snow at ORD.

and if you think about it, all snow is technically ‘stat padding’.


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I hate the term stat padding.  Every March and April snowfall is referred to as stat patting yet what do you think previous year's March and April snow was? Lol it's not like it stayed on the ground forever. Plus, if we call snow that does not last long stat padding, does that mean when you get a midwinter snowfall that stays on the ground for a long time with or without additional snow, you should call it stat understating?

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't think agw has anything to do with our December luck lately but it has been a weird quirk. You can't go by the mantra that everything is getting later because we have had no shortage of snowier and colder than normal Novembers as well as some unusual October snowfalls lately. I attribute it to a weird trend of luck where the other shoe will eventually drop. We had similar runs of shit Decembers in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1990s.

 

Fun fact. At Detroit...

9 of the last 17 Christmases have had snow on the ground.

16 of the last 17 Valentines Days have had snow on the ground.

At the gym today i saw fox 2 had a weather quiz question. Has a foot of snow ever fallen on the city in a 24 hr period in march.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro has drifted nw and become a bit more robust the last couple runs.  Still, the trough is positively tilted and the vast majority of the deep gulf moisture gets gobbled up by Ohio Valley thunderstorms.

[Baum]

13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro has drifted nw and become a bit more robust the last couple runs.  Still, the trough is positively tilted and the vast majority of the deep gulf moisture gets gobbled up by Ohio Valley thunderstorms.

head fake. Congrats St. Louis. Climatalogy be damned.

[Cary67]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't think agw has anything to do with our December luck lately but it has been a weird quirk. You can't go by the mantra that everything is getting later because we have had no shortage of snowier and colder than normal Novembers as well as some unusual October snowfalls lately. I attribute it to a weird trend of luck where the other shoe will eventually drop. We had similar runs of shit Decembers in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1990s.

 

Fun fact. At Detroit...

9 of the last 17 Christmases have had snow on the ground.

16 of the last 17 Valentines Days have had snow on the ground.

Take this with a grain of salt and not sure about the scientific method that arrived at these numbers or conclusions. But an interesting take from Wxrisk DT. Although he can be controversial and a bit hot headed.

[Hoosier]

We have a reversal of what we have gotten used to seeing at this range, as the GFS is south of the Euro.

[Stevo6899]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We have a reversal of what we have gotten used to seeing at this range, as the GFS is south of the Euro.

Typical weak and SE, trending as of now. We've had a favorable storm track for quite some time but cant get a storm to wrap up and intensify.

[Chicago Storm]

We have a reversal of what we have gotten used to seeing at this range, as the GFS is south of the Euro.

GFS already caved north.


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[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Take this with a grain of salt and not sure about the scientific method that arrived at these numbers or conclusions. But an interesting take from Wxrisk DT. Although he can be controversial and a bit hot headed.

 Looking at the last 100 years for each of the 3 Winter months at Detroit, I ran a regression line which showed

Dec warmed 2.2°

Jan COOLED 0.5°

Feb warmed 0.5°.

 

But all of that aside, this subforum is a lot different than the mid Atlantic or even northeast. Most of us are snow weenies and when it gets down to it, the temperatures aren't quite as important. To me it just makes no sense why we have had no shortage of snowier than average November's, an unusual number of late October and late April measurable snowfalls in this sub almost yearly and yet Decembers are on a shit run. Locally at least, ma nature has been edging in December then blowing a big load in Feb. 

 

Sorry to go OT lol. Bring on the March snows.

[Chicago Storm]

Looks like a 1-2”-er that’s melting while it falls.


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[michsnowfreak]

On 3/3/2022 at 11:02 AM, Stevo6899 said:

At the gym today i saw fox 2 had a weather quiz question. Has a foot of snow ever fallen on the city in a 24 hr period in march.

 Yes but it's been a while.

[Baum]

36 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a 1-2”-er that’s melting while it falls.


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stat padder 

[Hoosier]

53 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a 1-2”-er that’s melting while it falls.


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I'm sure somebody will pull at least 3"