2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

[CheeselandSkies]

Spent yesterday afternoon basically driving in a circle from Madison-Rochelle-Paw Paw-Mendota-Amboy-Franklin Grove-Rochelle-Marengo-Harvard-Madison.

I first bit on the original round of development, there was one cluster with its tail-end cell showing a bit of a hook structure on reflectivity near Paw Paw so I exited I-39 to eastbound Chicago Road though Paw Paw. I was out of position on the wrong side of the cell relative to where the rain-free/updraft base/area of interest would be were it to become an actual supercell, so I went all the way east and then south on Leland Road to get a view. By this time it was already looking less interesting on radar and another cluster was filling in to its immediate south, and none of this seemed in any hurry to do anything (no warnings at this point). I decided to bail for a new cluster that was developing near/north of Kewanee so I went west on Suydam Road through Rollo and looped back to Paw Paw and I-39 to Mendota, then west on US 34 and northwest on US 52 to Sublette and Amboy. Then up to Franklin Grove and back to Rochelle, then on I-39 once again northbound to 64, through Esmond to Fairdale. I was eastbound on 72 between Kirkland and Kingston when the tornado warning went out for Boone County to my north. I had been keeping pace with the tail south end of the cluster, expecting that if anything was going to do something, that would be it. Instead it was the north end that went tornadic, although it didn't appear chaseable on radar (a big, bowing comma head with the couplet buried deep in the heavy rain) it was the only game in town and it was on my way home. I made a futile bid to catch up to it on 23 to Harvard, as it had a much more northerly than easterly component to its motion, but never could reach it before the warnings expired and I just took US-14 home, a nice way to avoid paying another toll on I-39/90.

[KokomoWX]

On 5/1/2022 at 12:01 AM, Hoosier said:

That Oak Brook storm is now listed as tornado in the LSR.

Edit:  apparently already surveyed.  EF-0 with a path length just under 2 miles long.  

Also had a 2nd EF-0 tornado in the LOT cwa.

I was at Credit Union 1 Arena Saturday for a 3 1/2 hour marathon of Rush University's Commencement which began at 2 PM.  The ceremony went continued after the warning but when it was over, I turn around from photographing the hooding portion to find an almost empty arena.  Pretty crazy to see that.  By the time I packed up, the sun was out.  I drove home in between the storms but was treated to a crazy light show almost the whole way after a dinner stop in Merrillville.  

[nwohweather]

Solid storm in NW Ohio

[Chinook]

The rotation went right over Findlay, and still exists as a somewhat broad rotation, easily detected by KCLE. Findlay has this bad little situation that it's in the radar hole, so all radars are at least 90 miles away, I think.

[Jim Martin]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

The rotation went right over Findlay, and still exists as a somewhat broad rotation, easily detected by KCLE. Findlay has this bad little situation that it's in the radar hole, so all radars are at least 90 miles away, I think.

The result of the severe weather in Findlay earlier this evening. 18 inch branch snapped off this tree on N. Main St. Had 60-70 MPH wind along with some hail.

And yes, the radar hole showed its ugly head again. The comma head went right over the city on KCLE radar.

[Dustin]

One of the storms further south in Madison County (20 or so miles SW of Franklin County).  Same storm has some significant damage reports from about a half hour before this shot.  Overturned campers and power poles snapped.  You be the judge on this one...

[nwohweather]

2 hours ago, Chinook said:

The rotation went right over Findlay, and still exists as a somewhat broad rotation, easily detected by KCLE. Findlay has this bad little situation that it's in the radar hole, so all radars are at least 90 miles away, I think.

105 miles between IWX and CLE almost exactly

[madwx]

Tuesday has my interest in southern Wisconsin.  Should be a boundary set up across the area with plentiful moisture

[Hoosier]

12z HRRR was pretty bullish on the southward penetration of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[CheeselandSkies]

16 hours ago, madwx said:

Tuesday has my interest in southern Wisconsin.  Should be a boundary set up across the area with plentiful moisture

Was not expecting the slight risk for tomorrow. Now 12Z HRRR puts a sup right through Columbia County. 0-1 KM SRH appears to be lacking on soundings, though. Yet EHI is large because of monster CAPE. Go figure we get a high CAPE/low shear setup at 43 north in early May.

[cyclone77]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z HRRR was pretty bullish on the southward penetration of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The Euro has been showing that for 4+ days.  It's been amazingly consistent with showing convection dropping straight south out of WI through the DVN/LOT areas.  

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

The Euro has been showing that for 4+ days.  It's been amazingly consistent with showing convection dropping straight south out of WI through the DVN/LOT areas.  

18z HRRR continues the theme.

[frostfern]

It looks like a typical July/Aug nocturnal ridge-rider.  They always turn more right compared to what models show.

[CheeselandSkies]

Go figure, last couple HRRR runs kill off the storms in southern WI just as they start to move out of the horrible terrain of the WI River valley. Not real keen on chasing the Northwoods on May 10th.

[CheeselandSkies]

Interesting, SPC expanded 5% tor probs southward to include Madison and added a hatched hail area despite HRRR's downtrending with convective coverage and UH.

[CheeselandSkies]

Last few HRRR runs have brought back that Sauk County supercell this afternoon and have been pretty consistent with it. Still in bad terrain but at least not right along the river valley. Mesoanalysis suggests some sort of surface "perturbation" (not really a low) with backed sfc winds will move through that area, so this seems plausible.

[CheeselandSkies]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0708.html

[SolidIcewx]

 

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Last few HRRR runs have brought back that Sauk County supercell this afternoon and have been pretty consistent with it. Still in bad terrain but at least not right along the river valley. Mesoanalysis suggests some sort of surface "perturbation" (not really a low) with backed sfc winds will move through that area, so this seems plausible.

In this kind of situation a supercell can build right into the stronger instability so much that it doesn't need as much deep layer shear as you'd think.  The thing going against tornadoes is rapid upscale growth into QLCS mode, like the typical summer situation.  Wind damage is pretty likely with embedded RFD features as there's a nice dry layer aloft right above the juice.

[CheeselandSkies]

Today is starting to reek of bust in southern WI. Storm of the day might end up being that one between Oelwein, IA and Prairie du Chien.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Today is starting to reek of bust in southern WI. Storm of the day might end up being that one between Oelwein, IA and Prairie du Chien.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk


 

Hasn't it always been kind of a late arrival for southern WI?  Like, I wasn't expecting anything there until near or after sunset.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hasn't it always been kind of a late arrival for southern WI?  Like, I wasn't expecting anything there until near or after sunset.

Quite a few earlier runs of the HRRR had a sup firing and tracking through some combination of Richland/Sauk/Columbia Counties with a robust UH streak from about 20-22Z. At the time I made that post, the latest couple runs (starting with the first one to come in after I left the house, go figure) dropped that and there was no sign of incipient CI in that area.

[frostfern]

Model fail.  

[Nelson]

Crickets


.

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Model fail.  

Euro gets an F- after showing storm complex for 5 days tonight. 

[hardypalmguy]

WI is a severe weather graveyard.


.

[frostfern]

11 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

WI is a severe weather graveyard.


.

Grand Rapids MI is a general thunder graveyard.

[Chicago Storm]

Euro gets an F- after showing storm complex for 5 days tonight. 

Such a bad performance.

[Toro99]

14 hours ago, frostfern said:

Grand Rapids MI is a general thunder graveyard.

Hoping we pull something out of this sliver of high cape in SW MI, strange setup for sure. Storms back-building west across the state and moving S-SW

 

[frostfern]

26 minutes ago, Toro99 said:

Hoping we pull something out of this sliver of high cape in SW MI, strange setup for sure. Storms back-building west across the state and moving S-SW

 

I'm not really expecting much severe, but a wet downburst situation with wind driven quarter size hail is certainly possible where any of the stronger updraft pulses suddenly collapse.  Flash flooding potential is also really high.  Too bad I'm feeling so sick from covid booster yesterday.  Ugh.  There's no way I'm driving around feeling this dizzy.