CheeselandSkies Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: They did come north/east. Probably still not quite far enough though. Yep, GFS/NAM/3KM NAM pretty much all agree on far EC IL into Indiana being the hot spot. Hoping the GFS's 2nd-day (of a severe event, thinking of 4/12-13) progressive bias is at play here, although the NAM agreement gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 The 00z convection-allowing models have high coverage of thunderstorms near the Illinois-Indiana border on Saturday afternoon. There are some disagreements on shear, possibly varying from 30 kt to 50 kt. Storm-relative helicity will not be too high. CAPE values could be 1500 - 2000 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 Next Tuesday could also potentially be a severe weather day somewhere in the sub. 06Z GFS has an ideal surface pattern for a N IL outbreak at FH102...except it's happening at 12Z. The cold front is pushing through far SE Lower MI/NW OH/southern IN by 00Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 At this point tomorrow looks like a marginal risk worthy for portions of WI/IL/MI/IN/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: At this point tomorrow looks like a marginal risk worthy for portions of WI/IL/MI/IN/KY. There is a fairly obvious failure mode for tomorrow, and it's how deleterious will the morning convection be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 29, 2022 Author Share Posted April 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: There is a fairly obvious failure mode for tomorrow, and it's how deleterious will the morning convection be. One of the many times we have this issue each season. If that morning complex can clear out quick enough and clearing can occur in its wake for a while, the ceiling *could* be an enhanced risk worthy day. But at this point given 8/10 times things don't work out and also taking into account the present look of guidance, I'd roll with a marginal risk at this point to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 29, 2022 Share Posted April 29, 2022 DVN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Nothing right know AFAIK but about an hour or so ago the west part of the ILX CWA, west of Springfield, got some appetizers for tomorrow's event (if anything for our area). There were at least a couple Severe thunderstorm warnings SSW of Jacksonville, IL. If the current cell holds SPI is in play for at least a strong storm in the next hour or so. Could SPC's 01z outlook extend the marginal farther east into at least Central and Western Illinois? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Convection-allowing models show some somewhat-discrete storms going directly into Chicago tomorrow. I'm decently impressed by the 0-6km shear and 0-3km storm-relative helicity in the area of several of these cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 This is really going to be a nowcast or near nowcast thing. Right now it seems like there may be just enough of a break and enough destabilization so that the setup isn't completely killed. Certainly conditional potential for a decent severe threat if things break favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is really going to be a nowcast or near nowcast thing. Right now it seems like there may be just enough of a break and enough destabilization so that the setup isn't completely killed. Certainly conditional potential for a decent severe threat if things break favorably. Also... while not higher end potential, the threat (including tornadoes) looks pretty well squarely placed in Chicago metro. Always a little more concerning than usual when involving such populated areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Update: the 06z outlook has slight risk with the typical 5% tornado outlook, for primarily Illinois, but also over to Indianapolis and southeast Missouri and nearby Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 Probably the best case scenario to start the morning in one of these situations…Fading convection is already to the I-39 corridor the length of Illinois, with clearing taking place behind this activity from the DVN CWA down into MO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Eager to get a mini chase in today. Not quite sure where to position myself yet but hopefully I'll have a better idea in a couple hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Probably head down to Rochelle early afternoon and go from there...as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 Kind of getting the feeling that even though we are seeing a nice wedge of clearing/destabilization/warming/moisture return, this still may not perform.We’ll see if it’s a mirage/overthinking or not soon. SPC held on to slight risk with the updated SWODY1, which I agree with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 It's not a small area under threat. The corridor of backed flow + instability is/will be hundreds of miles wide, though the overlap region is a bit narrow at a given time. I'm sure there will be some severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's not a small area under threat. The corridor of backed flow + instability is/will be hundreds of miles wide, though the overlap region is a bit narrow at a given time. I'm sure there will be some severe wx. If you had to choose, where would you start the day off? I'm probably gonna head east south eastish from Aurora and keep on my toes. Figure I'm only gonna get one shot, maybe two so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's not a small area under threat. The corridor of backed flow + instability is/will be hundreds of miles wide, though the overlap region is a bit narrow. I'm sure there will be some severe wx. That's the problem w/narrowing down a target today, CAMS and SPC are no help lol. Partially my proximity bias at play but the IL/WI stateline region looks as good as any as it's where the tongue of moisture gets pulled back toward the TP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: If you had to choose, where would you start the day off? I'm probably gonna head east south eastish from Aurora and keep on my toes. Figure I'm only gonna get one shot, maybe two so I'm not sure. Maybe LaSalle county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2022 Author Share Posted April 30, 2022 If you had to choose, where would you start the day off? I'm probably gonna head east south eastish from Aurora and keep on my toes. Figure I'm only gonna get one shot, maybe two soPersonally, if I go when I leave ORD at 2PM, it’ll be somewhere between Rochelle and Bloomington. Maybe take the middle with LaSalle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not sure. Maybe LaSalle county. 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Personally, if I go when I leave ORD at 2PM, it’ll be somewhere between Rochelle and Bloomington. Maybe take the middle with LaSalle. LaSalle it is. Thank you both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Real soupy feeling real quick here once the rain ended in the IKK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Currently 73/61 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Rochelle an easy run. 40 minutes out. Would love to keep wheels east of the Rock River today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Dews have jumped to the low 60's in central IL with sporadic clearing. New SPC meso discussion looks interesting. Watch that WF and triple point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 LaSalle still sounding good to everyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: LaSalle still sounding good to everyone? Yes...flat enough to chase and positioned in a good area if radar returns require you to move in any direction. Watch for Illinois river crossings however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Hopefully trend from morning rain an no recovery is broken. Looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: Yes...flat enough to chase and positioned in a good area if radar returns require you to move in any direction. Watch for Illinois river crossings however. Yeah 39 looks really appealing. Thanks for the confidence boost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now