hardypalmguy Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: U say no support when u mean highly marginal, probably good turning with slp and just enough sneak heating 33 and rain season is almost here for us lakeshore dudes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 gotta do what u gotta do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Granted we don't know how many confirmed tornadoes there will be, but I wonder when the last time was that there were this many tornado reports that occurred in an area that didn't even have a marginal risk area. And it's not like there was a marginal risk nearby -- the nearest marginal risk area wasn't even close. That being said, I'm with Chi Storm in not being too critical of SPC's outlooks for this one. I went back and looked at the progged parameters/overall setup, and it would've been difficult to see this coming. Yes, there was a little bit of CAPE that was progged, but it was quite confined from a spatial and temporal aspect. Indeed, this whole thing was over with in SE WI in about 60-90 minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Stayed at work 45 minutes late today as we were in wall to wall until the last warning expired for the Madison media market. Our met at first assumed they'd warned for a cold air funnel.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Granted we don't know how many confirmed tornadoes there will be, but I wonder when the last time was that there were this many tornado reports that occurred in an area that didn't even have a marginal risk area. And it's not like there was a marginal risk nearby -- the nearest marginal risk area wasn't even close. That being said, I'm with Chi Storm in not being too critical of SPC's outlooks for this one. I went back and looked at the progged parameters/overall setup, and it would've been difficult to see this coming. Yes, there was a little bit of CAPE that was progged, but it was quite confined from a spatial and temporal aspect. Indeed, this whole thing was over with in SE WI in about 60-90 minutes. The mid-level lapse rates were somewhat decent with the cold pool aloft, but that's about the only thing that stood out from an instability standpoint. I didn't see any lightning with this activity on the detectors either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 5 hours ago, Powerball said: The mid-level lapse rates were somewhat decent with the cold pool aloft, but that's about the only thing that stood out from an instability standpoint. I didn't see any lightning with this activity on the detectors either. Storm tops were only 15,000 feet max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 MKX has confirmed 1 tornado so far... around West Allis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 4 tornadoes in Wisconsin yesterday -- all EF-0 https://www.weather.gov/mkx/October12SevereStormsSoutheastWisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 Certainly looks like a potentially dynamic system early next week. Will have to see how it trends and if we can muster enough instability for a severe threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Certainly looks like a potentially dynamic system early next week. Will have to see how it trends and if we can muster enough instability for a severe threat. The "2nd severe weather season" is certainly upon us. Potential could be there next week. So far, SPC waiting for consistency among the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted October 20, 2022 Share Posted October 20, 2022 Day 4 shows something now a little to the west of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 I may be thinking too highly of it because of what happened in Wisconsin a while back, but tomorrow sort of looks like a little potential sleeper setup around downstate Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Instability looks minimal at best on Saturday, but the strengthening background wind fields in association with the deepening surface low may be enough to force some strong to marginally severe gusts to the surface in any organized line of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 2, 2022 Author Share Posted November 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Instability looks minimal at best on Saturday, but the strengthening background wind fields in association with the deepening surface low may be enough to force some strong to marginally severe gusts to the surface in any organized line of showers. If things hold as modeled currently, it wouldn't be surprising. Especially with synoptic wind gusts over 45MPH likely as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 Looking like 50-60MPH gusts possible up here in Michigan. Saturday is going to be a windy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 3, 2022 Share Posted November 3, 2022 This thin line in IL at 16z Saturday would be an item to watch. There is no instability with it, but it's in the presence of very strong wind fields. Not that hard to imagine something like that bringing down some 60+ mph gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Marginal risk for today was extended farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Cedar Rapids has a severe warning now for wind and hail. I got neither, but did get heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Marginal has been added in the OV for tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised at some isolated wind reports west of where they have it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Not looking forward to flying out of ORD early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Not looking forward to flying out of ORD early tomorrow morning. Just think of it as nature's rollercoaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Easily loudest lightning strike of the year just a few seconds ago. Lit up the inside of my kitchen, definitely in the forest preserve that's like a quarter mile away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 jelly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 Gotta love November boomers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 As of 1055AM, a line of gusty convective showers is moving across areas east of I-39 and recently produced a 51 kt gust at RFD. Along and just ahead of the leading line of showers, aggressive wind gusts have been downing trees and power lines across portions of northern Illinois. Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far due to the damage potential associated with winds stronger than the already robust background flow and multiple reports. This line, moving to the northeast at around 45 mph, will trek across the rest of the CWA through the remainder of the morning into the early part of the afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Warning issuance will continue as needed through early afternoon. Several notable mesovortices have been popping up along the leading edge, most short-lived and none too concerning at this point. However, we will hang onto a chance for a few brief, sporadic spin-ups as the line progresses eastward into a region of 300-400 m2/s2 of effective SRH. However, the shallow nature of the storms and lack of instability thus far have precluded Tornado Warning issuance, though we will certainly continue to closely monitor mesovortices on radar for any stronger rotational signatures. Doom/Castro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 77 mph gust at DPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 Northwestern game wild AF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 P solid micro line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 I'd say this exceeded my expectations, and I was semi-bullish to begin with. Another reminder that even the shallowest convection in dynamic systems like this will find any excuse to transport severe level winds to the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 6, 2022 Share Posted November 6, 2022 Kinda sorry I missed that, but I'm currently at a resort in Puerto Morelos, Q.R., Mexico and just had my first ever professional massage earlier today, so I'm not really jealous.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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