frostfern Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 6 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: House across the tree from mine got smashed by a tree, damage is widespread in the rural parts of Hillsdale County Luckily the persistent layer of low clouds limited the gust potential some in my area. It certainly rained hard here though and there were some ground-shaking lightning strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 15 hours ago, frostfern said: It didn't seem anywhere close to severe IMBY, but apparently the GRR ASOS measured a 58 mph gust. It looks like the clearing line was pretty much right at KGRR when the storms rolled in. Murky all day here with a temperature stuck around 78-82, but there was more filtered sun and temps into the middle 80s just a little south. Had 56MPH gust a my house. Missed out on most of the lightning other mentioned though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 Respectable for late August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 actually managed to knock down quite a few other than silver maple branches/trees a long the lakefront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 30, 2022 Author Share Posted August 30, 2022 Respectable for late AugustIt’s still big wind/derecho season, though the tail end of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Respectable for late August Interesting in that it is clustered around the Lakes. Is that because that is where the population is, or is it actually an atmosphere/bodies of water interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Respectable for late August With that line continuing on from Illinois to New York does it technically obtain a derecho classification? It had two extreme wind reports and meets the 250 mile requirement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 30, 2022 Author Share Posted August 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, nwohweather said: With that line continuing on from Illinois to New York does it technically obtain a derecho classification? It had two extreme wind reports and meets the 250 mile requirement The "requirements" are sort of fluid these days, so you probably could say it was one in some terms. As for that NY activity, that was separate from the main MCS across IL/MI/IN/OH/ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 7 hours ago, bowtie` said: Interesting in that it is clustered around the Lakes. Is that because that is where the population is, or is it actually an atmosphere/bodies of water interaction? I think it just has to do with where the strongest storms in this setup initiated/tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 On 8/30/2022 at 5:52 PM, Chicago Storm said: The "requirements" are sort of fluid these days, so you probably could say it was one in some terms. As for that NY activity, that was separate from the main MCS across IL/MI/IN/OH/ON. It’s worth the debate. That line cooked for a long time and even caused a fatality around Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 On 8/30/2022 at 8:20 AM, WestMichigan said: Had 56MPH gust a my house. Missed out on most of the lightning other mentioned though. The lightning wasn't super cooperative. A lot of anvil crawlers and occasional big ground-shaking +cg thunderclap on the back side, but low clouds were in the way most of the time. I still haven't exactly figured out what parameters you need to get really dense cg+ strikes. It's usually slightly sub-severe storms that are the loudest though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 3, 2022 Share Posted September 3, 2022 On 9/2/2022 at 2:42 AM, frostfern said: The lightning wasn't super cooperative. A lot of anvil crawlers and occasional big ground-shaking +cg thunderclap on the back side, but low clouds were in the way most of the time. I still haven't exactly figured out what parameters you need to get really dense cg+ strikes. It's usually slightly sub-severe storms that are the loudest though. High dewpoint depression, especially at the surface, helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 On 9/3/2022 at 9:35 AM, Powerball said: High dewpoint depression, especially at the surface, helps. From my reading that effects polarity more than density. Higher bases with shallower warm cloud depth favors positive polarity, which usually means lower strike density overall (all other things being equal, positive strikes drain much more charge per flash, and are thus less frequent). In this case the LCL was ground-hugging in my area (probably 500m or less), so that would seem to favor very deep warm cloud layer and negative polarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Can't believe nobody posted about the Sunday slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Can't believe nobody posted about the Sunday slight risk. ..Broyles.. 09/16/2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 Big 5% tor over central IL now on 1730Z...written by Goss although first SWODY2 was Broyles. 12Z HRRR and 3KM NAM are worlds apart on timing and location of CI tomorrow afternoon/evening, so no help there as usual. That HRRR run also has southeastward-moving discrete supercells in west-central IL late into the night Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 18Z HRRR has a lot of nice supercells cranking across central to east-central IL at 00Z Monday. Too far south for me on a work night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 HRRR pretty much drops everything interesting on the 00Z run...or so I thought. Then it fires supercells right at/after dark. Where's this setup in July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 The 00z HRRR for tomorrow has quite a few updraft-helicity tracks in western Illinois. Other convection-allowing models have some large storms, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Enhanced risk for hail on the day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 setup overall is very supportive of supercells and large hail with 0-6km shear potentially exceeding 60kts and MLLRs exceeding 7.5. Boundary is somewhat diffuse and not likely to be overforced. Not sold on tornadoes but will likely be out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Up to 10% hatched . Timing on CAMs is still mostly after dark, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Heading to the beach, shame about the miss south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 We now have a 30% hatched wind, 30% hatched hail and 10% hatched tornado, and Broyles wasn't involved in the outlooks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 1630 text does mention tornado threat is more conditional than thought at 13Z, but they kept the 10 hatched anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: 1630 text does mention tornado threat is more conditional than thought at 13Z, but they kept the 10 hatched anyway. They shriveled it down quite a bit, 13z included the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 18, 2022 Author Share Posted September 18, 2022 Today/tonight looks moderate risk-ish across SE IA/NE MO/W IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 Honestly, if it was April through July or even August I'd be all over this. September Sundays are for watching football with a beer. Haven't even looked at a satellite loop (that wasn't of Fiona) today.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Honestly, if it was April through July or even August I'd be all over this. September Sundays are for watching football with a beer. Haven't even looked at a satellite loop (that wasn't of Fiona) today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk just cracked a leinies oktoberfest....thinking it'll be straight whiskey in a few hours once bears/pack kick off. I'm good with a miss south. Prefer to suffer through my azz whippings with the power on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 18, 2022 Share Posted September 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baum said: just cracked a leinies oktoberfest....thinking it'll be straight whiskey in a few hours once bears/pack kick off. I'm good with a miss south. Prefer to suffer through my azz whippings with the power on. This is how Aaron Rodgers looks at the Bears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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