CheeselandSkies Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer. Quote By late next week (around Day 8/Friday), some guidance suggests that the upper ridge may begin to break down. This may eventually allow rich low-level moisture to return northward across parts of the central CONUS. ..Gleason.. 08/12/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 12, 2022 Author Share Posted August 12, 2022 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer. Yea, I'm still not on that train for our sub-forum... ENS support is high for not only the pattern we've seen much of the summer to continue, but only become more significant and deeply entrenched. The below isn't what you want if you're looking for interesting weather (Quality heat or severe). Obviously that doesn't mean we can't see any warmer temps or any severe at all, it's just not a supportive pattern for anything good or consistent as it looks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 Now that the lakes are near or at there warmest I wouldn't mind some unseasonably cool temps for maybe a couple waterspout days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 6 hours ago, outflow said: Now that the lakes are near or at there warmest I wouldn't mind some unseasonably cool temps for maybe a couple waterspout days. Just the other day I happened to look at this and was surprised just how warm Ontario was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Surprise marginal risk with 5/5/2 probs. Wasn't even really expecting rain today. Forecasts issued yesterday were like "Partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers," well, that 20% just hit here. HRRR soundings for this evening look somewhat interesting in the state line region, but it doesn't really break out any supercells. I'll be in the area anyway since I was planning on heading to Illinois Railway Museum for Diesel Days today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 This almost looks tornado-warning worthy, despite extremely marginal setup. Apparently there was a report of a funnel cloud with possible brief touchdown earlier in southeast MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted August 26, 2022 Share Posted August 26, 2022 There hasn't been much severe weather to follow as of late. Maybe this weekend will be active. Classic bowling ball on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 CAMs don't look half bad for tomorrow, especially because expectations are low and the boring stretch makes it seem more exciting than it otherwise would be. My main question is whether it will include this area or if activity won't reach maturity until just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Gonna be a tornado in NW Illinois soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, madwx said: Gonna be a tornado in NW Illinois soon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2022 Author Share Posted August 28, 2022 CAMs don't look half bad for tomorrow, especially because expectations are low and the boring stretch makes it seem more exciting than it otherwise would be. My main question is whether it will include this area or if activity won't reach maturity until just south.There’s about three different possible solutions in play as well, with placement on each of them in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 28, 2022 Author Share Posted August 28, 2022 Gonna be a tornado in NW Illinois soonThings are very messy overall right now.Based on some minor digging and research I’ve done over the years… An MCV track of E or ENE is optimal and what you want to see for something more significant/widespread to be possible. A more NE or NNE MCV track hasn’t been as fruitful significant/coverage wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Still, nice overachiever for a marginal (5% wind) day, which I wasn't even in yet currently am under a severe thunderstorm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Some minor flash flooding in the DeKalb area. 2.16” of rain so far and still pounding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 38 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Some minor flash flooding in the DeKalb area. 2.16” of rain so far and still pounding. 3.10” now. Solid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 3.10” now. Solid. We had a massive mosquito invasion after our 2 incher last week so get ready lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Out-of-nowhere Enhanced RIsk for northern Illinois. Day 3 outlook issued on Saturday had the area in a 5% (Marginal Risk). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 hoping to avoid a miss south later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 29, 2022 Author Share Posted August 29, 2022 hoping to avoid a miss south later4th and 8, grossman is your qb. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 hoping for a quick strip and recovery after the int Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Hrrr definitely underestimating current convection strength. Definitely an ofb with this activity pushing east and south. Hard to see with limited radar spacing where it's at currently and visible sat just now coming into light. Extensive cloud shield could really dampen instability into the afternoon but hoping for a quick recovery behind this. Wondering though if outflow from this will shunt threat further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 could be worse i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: 4th and 8, grossman is your qb. bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0527.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 HRRR still doesn't have a good handle on the current convection, which suggests that its solution for later on is tossworthy. Expect the severe threat to include areas north of where the HRRR has it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Really need to get some instability over here.. still socked in with thick low-level clouds. 14z HRRR out to lunch on current convection. 15z has it but doesn’t look to handle it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Really need to get some instability over here.. still socked in with thick low-level clouds. 14z HRRR out to lunch on current convection. 15z has it but doesn’t look to handle it all. Good observation about the HRRR. Pretty drastic difference between the 14z and 15z HRRR (the latter of which I had not seen before my previous post). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 29, 2022 Author Share Posted August 29, 2022 For a little while this morning I was on the significant train, but watching how things have evolved the past few hours this morning, I’ve quickly exited the train a while ago.The environment is fairly good overall, with… Ample moisture, ample instability, a disturbance moving through, a quality plume of higher lapse rates and some clear skies for heating. However, as noted by an expanding low level cloud shield ahead of the line, there is a stable layer in place. This, in part with a few other things (such as lagging shear), is limiting intensification. So instead right now we have a weaker line of t’storms moving east, with outflow racing out ahead. Maybe it’ll change in a few hours, but by then it might be too late for the Chicago area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 SPC doesn't sound all that enthused in the 1630z outlook text even though they still have a 30% hatched area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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