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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

New watch up for WI/IA/IN/IL until midnight CDT

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0440.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   435 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northeast Iowa
     Northern Illinois
     Northwest Indiana
     Southern Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight
     CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a weak boundary.  These
   storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds late this
   afternoon.  A fast-moving bow echo over northwest Iowa will approach
   parts of the watch area by early evening, resulting in an increased
   risk of widespread damaging wind gusts and some hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
   of Waterloo IA to 35 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

SR and meso's really sucking on placement of storms and heavy rain, (at least over the eastern part of the sub and OV).

 

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Par for the course.

Obviously models have come a long way and now we have more and more of these convection-allowing models that sometimes do a good job, but I wonder if we'll ever get to the point of being able to consistently model convection with a high degree of accuracy.   

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

 

Obviously models have come a long way and now we have more and more of these convection-allowing models that sometimes do a good job, but I wonder if we'll ever get to the point of being able to consistently model convection with a high degree of accuracy.   

Hopefully when the hi-res NGM comes out it is a big step forward.

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Marginal dropped for today, lol.

Not surprising, odds were always against it.

Euro, NAM and 3km NAM did especially bad. Just 18-24 hours ago they had the SLP moving from WI down into N IL, and instead it’s well west, dropping south between OMA and DSM. HRRR and other guidance score a win with this one.
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Kinda scratching my head at that Day 5 outlook too...GFS has an interesting parameter space for Tuesday but (as usual this year) a very strong cap. MKX doesn't even mention severe for Tuesday in their AFD or HWO.

I somehow missed that gem.

LOT doesn’t even have precip in the grids right now, let alone t’storms. Based on current guidance, that’s the way to go for now.

I was once told by someone well known that the SPC is “The best at what they do”. Kind of comical, really.
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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Kinda scratching my head at that Day 5 outlook too...GFS has an interesting parameter space for Tuesday but (as usual this year) a very strong cap. MKX doesn't even mention severe for Tuesday in their AFD or HWO.

Given trends this year it will probably be isolated discrete supercells again.  Would rather have a solid squall line or, better yet, backbuilding cluster overhead.

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