yoda Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 New watch up for WI/IA/IN/IL until midnight CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 5, 2022 Author Share Posted July 5, 2022 Not our sub-forum, but Sioux Falls is currently getting the 2022 version of the Cedar Rapids 2020 derecho RIJ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: New watch up for WI/IA/IN/IL until midnight CDT https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0440.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 440 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northern Illinois Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing along a weak boundary. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds late this afternoon. A fast-moving bow echo over northwest Iowa will approach parts of the watch area by early evening, resulting in an increased risk of widespread damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Waterloo IA to 35 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 OK, if this produces a tornado I'm gonna be annoyed after chasing yesterday and sitting out today, because we're in sub-2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Carbon copy of yesterday...storms firing up from northern Grant to Rock Counties and training ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 GR Level 3 showing a lot of shear markers with those discrete cells in Green/Rock Counties...however velocities don't look that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Looking due west from just north of train station. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 A lot of broad rotation going on but nothing too focused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, kevlon62 said: A lot of broad rotation going on but nothing too focused. No longer tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 5, 2022 Share Posted July 5, 2022 Yeah just hangin' with the amber waves now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 It appears 60-70 mph wind gusts hit the far north side of Cedar Rapids, but probably only 40+ here on the west side. Unfortunately, this line is all gust front and little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 That does it I'm cancelling my BAM WX subscription. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 SR and meso's really sucking on placement of storms and heavy rain, (at least over the eastern part of the sub and OV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 hour ago, buckeye said: SR and meso's really sucking on placement of storms and heavy rain, (at least over the eastern part of the sub and OV). Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 this is 21 miles NE of Cincinnati downtown more spread-out debris signature a few minutes later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 2 hours ago, buckeye said: SR and meso's really sucking on placement of storms and heavy rain, (at least over the eastern part of the sub and OV). 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Par for the course. Obviously models have come a long way and now we have more and more of these convection-allowing models that sometimes do a good job, but I wonder if we'll ever get to the point of being able to consistently model convection with a high degree of accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2022 Share Posted July 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Obviously models have come a long way and now we have more and more of these convection-allowing models that sometimes do a good job, but I wonder if we'll ever get to the point of being able to consistently model convection with a high degree of accuracy. Hopefully when the hi-res NGM comes out it is a big step forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 Forgot to post these shots from home Tuesday evening, of a shelf cloud along an OFB pushing out ahead of a severe t'storm to the northwest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 I80 severe MCS incoming tomorrow morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 11, 2022 Share Posted July 11, 2022 Anybody see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 SVR just went out for Dodge County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 TOR warned storm between DeWitt and St. Johns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 Video I took of a non severe storm moving over Lake Michigan this evening north of Racine, WI. Just thought you all might enjoy. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2022 Share Posted July 12, 2022 nice colors, thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 Marginal dropped for today, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Marginal dropped for today, lol. Struggle for favorable severe parameters in July. Sad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2022 Author Share Posted July 15, 2022 Marginal dropped for today, lol.Not surprising, odds were always against it.Euro, NAM and 3km NAM did especially bad. Just 18-24 hours ago they had the SLP moving from WI down into N IL, and instead it’s well west, dropping south between OMA and DSM. HRRR and other guidance score a win with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 Kinda scratching my head at that Day 5 outlook too...GFS has an interesting parameter space for Tuesday but (as usual this year) a very strong cap. MKX doesn't even mention severe for Tuesday in their AFD or HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2022 Author Share Posted July 15, 2022 Kinda scratching my head at that Day 5 outlook too...GFS has an interesting parameter space for Tuesday but (as usual this year) a very strong cap. MKX doesn't even mention severe for Tuesday in their AFD or HWO.I somehow missed that gem.LOT doesn’t even have precip in the grids right now, let alone t’storms. Based on current guidance, that’s the way to go for now.I was once told by someone well known that the SPC is “The best at what they do”. Kind of comical, really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Kinda scratching my head at that Day 5 outlook too...GFS has an interesting parameter space for Tuesday but (as usual this year) a very strong cap. MKX doesn't even mention severe for Tuesday in their AFD or HWO. Given trends this year it will probably be isolated discrete supercells again. Would rather have a solid squall line or, better yet, backbuilding cluster overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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